Texas Winter 2013-2014

[Texas Snowman]

Another reason for concern about potential for a significant ice storm - many, many trees and big limbs were weakened greatly by the severe summertime heat and drought of 2011 and 2012.

They are just waiting for a reason to come down.

[Texas Snowman]

I'm seeing a LOT of people on my Facebook page posting comic strips, funny sayings, etc. about how Texans go over the top on their reaction to a single snowflake falling.

I fear that the busted Winter Storm forecast a week ago will keep a lot of people from preparing - non-perishable food, figuring out how to light and heat their house safely, etc.

This could be really, really serious if the icing is severe, the power outages are severe and long lasting and near zero cold comes into the Southern Plains next week.

[AggieSpirit]

Will we be able to make this again on the side of my house?

https://scontent-a-ord.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-prn2/q71/1471391_10200906161680269_1222216478_n.jpg

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Internet was out for a bit this morning, back up, i saw Steves post last night. Yeah, looks nasty, are we lacking a 'polar vortex' though? Typically it sets up just west of Hudson bay and swings nasty cold air into the US

[Kludge]

I fear that the busted Winter Storm forecast a week ago will keep a lot of people from preparing - non-perishable food, ...

Not much chance of food perishing. Just put it on the back porch.

[Texas Snowman]

I fear that the busted Winter Storm forecast a week ago will keep a lot of people from preparing - non-perishable food, ...

Not much chance of food perishing. Just put it on the back porch.

Lol, true dat!

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Internet was out for a bit this morning, back up, i saw Steves post last night. Yeah, looks nasty, are we lacking a 'polar vortex' though? Typically it sets up just west of Hudson bay and swings nasty cold air into the US

I see you Polar Vortex

[Annie Oakley]

Internet was out for a bit this morning, back up, i saw Steves post last night. Yeah, looks nasty, are we lacking a 'polar vortex' though? Typically it sets up just west of Hudson bay and swings nasty cold air into the US

I see you Polar Vortex

http://forums.khou.com/download/file.php?id=7226&t=1

Which Pole?


Sorry-misread your post due to distraction of your name and Bow Tie lol

[dhweather]

http://wx5fwd.org/NWSUpdate

From: National Weather Service, Fort Worth
Date: Wednesday, 4 December 2013 10:54 CST

Good morning,

Confidence is increasing for the potential of a winter storm affecting most, but not all, of the region Thursday and Friday. The cold air is on its way, with the front already through Wichita Falls. Precipitation will begin Thursday and will continue Friday and Saturday. A short PDF is attached that shows the areas impacted, the known and unknown factors for this forecast, and the timing.

BOTTOM LINE

There will be a winter storm in portions of northern Texas beginning Thursday. Exactly where the impacts will be the worst remain to be seen. However, this storm has the potential to produce travel disruptions and power outages due to ice, especially in the I-20 and I-30 corridors. Public works and transportation officials should be aware of the potential for widespread areas of ice and/or sleet. Emergency management and elected officials should be prepared for a two or three day period of winter weather impacts.

AREAS OF GREATEST CONCERN

See the attached graphics for a better depiction of the area of the expected hazards.
Rain: everywhere
Freezing Rain / Ice: Mainly north of a line from Goldthwaite to Cleburne to Sulphur Springs.

POTENTIAL HAZARDS / IMPACTS AND TIMING

Rain mixed with freezing rain and/or sleet will be the main impact. Before the temperatures fall below freezing, there is the potential for a few strong thunderstorms, especially in the warmer air to the south. However, the predominant impact from rain or freezing rain, depending on where the freezing line ends up. It is still early to say with certainty as to what the exact impacts will be for this event. However, this storm has the potential for producing icy roads (especially elevated surfaces) and ice coated power lines and trees. Power disruptions are a possibility with this storm system.

The cold front is ahead of schedule. The front is through Wichita Falls this morning, and will be through some of North Texas before this email reaches you. The cold air is lending confidence to the previous thinking that this system is colder than the previous storm. The earlier arrival of the cold air is problematic in the forecast, as it could give us sufficient cold air depth to keep the precipitation type as sleet, instead of freezing rain.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE

Overall forecast confidence is moderate and is increasing. The impacts from this storm could be high to extreme.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS

Is there a chance that temperatures hover at or above 32 degrees and you see nothing but a cold rain? Yes, but confidence is growing that this will be in the southeast, generally between Cameron and Palestine.
Is there a chance that temperatures fall lower and remain around 28 degrees coating numerous areas with ice? Yes.
Is there a chance that temperatures will be much colder and keep the predominant precipitation type of sleet (or even snow) producing lesser impacts than freezing rain? Yes.
Most likely, there will be a combination of both of these extremes across a very short geographic area. The further north you go, the greater the potential impacts from this storm system. The further south you go, the greater the uncertainty.

[ludosc]

http://wx5fwd.org/NWSUpdate

From: National Weather Service, Fort Worth
Date: Wednesday, 4 December 2013 10:54 CST

Good morning,

Confidence is increasing for the potential of a winter storm affecting most, but not all, of the region Thursday and Friday. The cold air is on its way, with the front already through Wichita Falls. Precipitation will begin Thursday and will continue Friday and Saturday. A short PDF is attached that shows the areas impacted, the known and unknown factors for this forecast, and the timing.

BOTTOM LINE

There will be a winter storm in portions of northern Texas beginning Thursday. Exactly where the impacts will be the worst remain to be seen. However, this storm has the potential to produce travel disruptions and power outages due to ice, especially in the I-20 and I-30 corridors. Public works and transportation officials should be aware of the potential for widespread areas of ice and/or sleet. Emergency management and elected officials should be prepared for a two or three day period of winter weather impacts.

AREAS OF GREATEST CONCERN

See the attached graphics for a better depiction of the area of the expected hazards.
Rain: everywhere
Freezing Rain / Ice: Mainly north of a line from Goldthwaite to Cleburne to Sulphur Springs.

POTENTIAL HAZARDS / IMPACTS AND TIMING

Rain mixed with freezing rain and/or sleet will be the main impact. Before the temperatures fall below freezing, there is the potential for a few strong thunderstorms, especially in the warmer air to the south. However, the predominant impact from rain or freezing rain, depending on where the freezing line ends up. It is still early to say with certainty as to what the exact impacts will be for this event. However, this storm has the potential for producing icy roads (especially elevated surfaces) and ice coated power lines and trees. Power disruptions are a possibility with this storm system.

The cold front is ahead of schedule. The front is through Wichita Falls this morning, and will be through some of North Texas before this email reaches you. The cold air is lending confidence to the previous thinking that this system is colder than the previous storm. The earlier arrival of the cold air is problematic in the forecast, as it could give us sufficient cold air depth to keep the precipitation type as sleet, instead of freezing rain.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE

Overall forecast confidence is moderate and is increasing. The impacts from this storm could be high to extreme.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS

Is there a chance that temperatures hover at or above 32 degrees and you see nothing but a cold rain? Yes, but confidence is growing that this will be in the southeast, generally between Cameron and Palestine.
Is there a chance that temperatures fall lower and remain around 28 degrees coating numerous areas with ice? Yes.
Is there a chance that temperatures will be much colder and keep the predominant precipitation type of sleet (or even snow) producing lesser impacts than freezing rain? Yes.
Most likely, there will be a combination of both of these extremes across a very short geographic area. The further north you go, the greater the potential impacts from this storm system. The further south you go, the greater the uncertainty.

Is there any chance we see more sleet than freezing rain?

[dhweather]

The faster the cold air gets here, the better. The depth of it as well matters. If the front keeps making good progress and clears the metroplex this afternoon/early evening, that will be ahead of schedule. Since this appears to be a more significant cold air mass, there is a chance it could be more sleet, but I wouldn't be that brave just yet. Who knows what the warm nose will do. Karl Malden or Michael Jackson.

[Texas Snowman]

From the statement above :

"Is there a chance that temperatures will be much colder and keep the predominant precipitation type of sleet (or even snow) producing lesser impacts than freezing rain? Yes."

[ludosc]

From the statement above :

"Is there a chance that temperatures will be much colder and keep the predominant precipitation type of sleet (or even snow) producing lesser impacts than freezing rain? Yes."

*crossing fingers*

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Haha, nice Annie

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

In basic terms a McFarland Signature is a rare occurrence in which the Arctic air due to the Jetstream pictured above forces all of the arctic might southward. The way it was explained to me was.. This of if the earth's magnetic pole shifted to South Dakota and it became the Arctic.. But only for a couple of weeks..

Basically what it means is the full on brunt of the Arctic is about to paint its fury across the United States for a while.. If you LOVE what North Dakota feels like in a typical winter then that is what people in Texas will see for a while.. Also, they are known for allowing the dreaded Greenland blocks which basically locks up the Jetstreams in such a way that it allows for storms to travel, most likely keeping the Southern Jet active and locked into place for a while..

What is a McFarland Signature? It is Wxman57's absolute WORST wintertime nightmare!

From my reading of Texas winter history, the McFarland Signature usually drives hard freezes down the the Rio Grande Valley and beyond.

[orangeblood]

The faster the cold air gets here, the better. The depth of it as well matters. If the front keeps making good progress and clears the metroplex this afternoon/early evening, that will be ahead of schedule. Since this appears to be a more significant cold air mass, there is a chance it could be more sleet, but I wouldn't be that brave just yet. Who knows what the warm nose will do. Karl Malden or Michael Jackson.

Just don't see sleet as the predominant precip type with this one. That warm nose is over 5,000 ft thick/Temp greater than 3 deg C during heaviest precip, even up towards the red river counties. Will need drastic changes on the models to get rid of that warm nose. Might get sleet on the back end of the precip shield but this storm looks to be the worst case scenario for residents of North Texas

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Sleet storms can still be fun for kids... Straight up Frz Rain/Ice storms are no fun for anyone.

[dhweather]

81 at NAS Ft. Worth, 40 miles to the NW, 63 at Bridgeport

[wxman57]

The faster the cold air gets here, the better. The depth of it as well matters. If the front keeps making good progress and clears the metroplex this afternoon/early evening, that will be ahead of schedule. Since this appears to be a more significant cold air mass, there is a chance it could be more sleet, but I wouldn't be that brave just yet. Who knows what the warm nose will do. Karl Malden or Michael Jackson.

Just don't see sleet as the predominant precip type with this one. That warm nose is over 5,000 ft thick/Temp greater than 3 deg C during heaviest precip, even up towards the red river counties. Will need drastic changes on the models to get rid of that warm nose. Might get sleet on the back end of the precip shield but this storm looks to be the worst case scenario for residents of North Texas

I agree - looks like a freezing rain event more than a sleet event up there in the Dallas area.

[texas1836]

Can you really call it a McFarland Signature? I don't see temps dropping that drastically in the Valley, at least freezing temps.