Texas Winter 2013-2014

[TexasStorm]

Funny that the TTU model which had last weeks event pegged 30 hours before the event is showing only a 20% chance of frozen precip in the DFW area as of 5PM on Friday afternoon.

http://www.atmo.ttu.edu/bancell/real_time_WRF/ttuwrfhome.php?dmn=2km&prm=sfc_frzprob&run=0

[texas1836]

I'm new to the group, but looking forward to being a weather station from McKinney. When it hits I'll be sure to give updates on the goings on.

[HockeyTx82]

Looking at the Euro 2m temp forecast, I'm seeing a low of 5-9F across D-FW on Tuesday. Not far below freezing over the weekend. Down to 26 in Houston next Tuesday according to the Euro. What I don't see is the timing of arrival of sub-freezing air in the D-FW area. Euro still says around 8pm tomorrow.

For the record, the NAM drops the temp to freezing in the D-FW area at midnight tomorrow night, about 3-4 hours later than the Euro.

I always here people call it King Euro. So are we seriously looking at that cold of temps? Looking at the FTW NOAA forecast I don't see anything that close. How prolonged will this event be in terms of temps below 32? My wife went to the store this morning to get some things. Should she have gone to Costco and bought bulk?

From what I gather this will come in waves, each getting colder, right?

Thanks for all of your input wxman

[vbhoutex]

I'm new to the group, but looking forward to being a weather station from McKinney. When it hits I'll be sure to give updates on the goings on.

Welcome aboard!! We look forward to your reports and discussions.

[vbhoutex]

Looking at the Euro 2m temp forecast, I'm seeing a low of 5-9F across D-FW on Tuesday. Not far below freezing over the weekend. Down to 26 in Houston next Tuesday according to the Euro. What I don't see is the timing of arrival of sub-freezing air in the D-FW area. Euro still says around 8pm tomorrow.

For the record, the NAM drops the temp to freezing in the D-FW area at midnight tomorrow night, about 3-4 hours later than the Euro.

I always here people call it King Euro. So are we seriously looking at that cold of temps? Looking at the FTW NOAA forecast I don't see anything that close. How prolonged will this event be in terms of temps below 32? My wife went to the store this morning to get some things. Should she have gone to Costco and bought bulk?

From what I gather this will come in waves, each getting colder, right?

Thanks for all of your input wxman

Obviously I am not Wxman57 and I definitely want his input on this.
To answer your question we are in that time of year where we normally see more cold fronts coming down and yes in general each one seems to be a little colder and may last a little longer. Definitely not a given, as you can see by our temps, at least in SE TX, which are hitting the low 80s before this surge of cold, but in general the answer to your question is yes it does seem that we get a little colder with each one, especially in N TX.

[dhweather]

I'm new to the group, but looking forward to being a weather station from McKinney. When it hits I'll be sure to give updates on the goings on.

Welcome! Expect a lot of traffic here in the next week.

[dhweather]

I plotted a couple of meteograms that include the 850mb temperature (red dashed line). GFS is on top, NAM is on bottom. Don't have one from the Euro, but it's colder than the GFS for next week:

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/dfwgfs6zdec4.gif

Man, if this verifies, we're in for a world of hurt.

[orangeblood]

This situation is only getting progressively worse on each model run for North Texas, increasing precip while pushing temps down even further. This mornings NAM is now showing greater than 3/4 of an inch of ice from the Metroplex and points to the Northeast, even parts of Dallas County are over an inch of precip. Now approaching a 4 index on the SPIA scale, crippling ice storm criteria

[Tireman4]

Artic front is well ahead of forecasted timing. front is through Childress and Guthrie TX, winds have now shifted out of the north in Vernon as well as Lawton OK. so they have already seen their highs for the day and temps are a good 15-20 from what was forecasted. I expect the front to be into the D/FW area by 6pm which will be about 6 hrs earlier than first thought.

Meaning Houston "might" get the front coming through around 9am-10 am ish?

[Ntxw]

GFS will be running soon. We will find out the magnitude of this potential prolonged freeze/high impact event pretty soon if the cards are held being that we can see the position of the front advancing quickly and upstream temperatures.

Here is a wide look at all the players.

[Tejas89]

Local DFW met Jeff Ray on KRLD just now. Sticking to the gameplan. Expects biggest ice impacts to the north, but including Collin and Denton counties. Bridges and overpasses main concern for immediate area Friday a.m. Temps may stay near or below freezing until Monday p.m. so anything else falling during that period will be problematic even if light.

Regarding next week he mentioned a high of 50 Wednesday.

[downsouthman1]

Funny that the TTU model which had last weeks event pegged 30 hours before the event is showing only a 20% chance of frozen precip in the DFW area as of 5PM on Friday afternoon.

http://www.atmo.ttu.edu/bancell/real_time_WRF/ttuwrfhome.php?dmn=2km&prm=sfc_frzprob&run=0

As is always said, the Lucy storms are the ones that everyone, including the models, forecasts as a high impact storm well in advance. & the actual killer storms are the ones that are underforecast.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

[quote="Tejas89"]Local DFW met Jeff Ray on KRLD just now. Sticking to the gameplan. Expects biggest ice impacts to the north, but including Collin and Denton counties. Bridges and overpasses main concern for immediate area Friday a.m. Temps may stay near or below freezing until Monday p.m. so anything else falling during that period will be problematic even if light.

Regarding next week he mentioned a high of 50 Wednesday.[/quote]


Doubt it.

[TheProfessor]

Based on information i have seen and NWS Norman showing pontentially 2/3 in of ice for parts of north texas and wind speeds of 15-25 mph I'm thinking we could easily get a 2 or 3 on the spia index maybe even a 4? What do you guys think?

[orangeblood]

Based on information i have seen and NWS Norman showing pontentially 2/3 in of ice for parts of north texas and wind speeds of 15-25 mph I'm thinking we could easily get a 2 or 3 on the spia index maybe even a 4? What do you guys think?

According to the NAM, this is a 4 index with widespread power grid problems and prolonged outages for a good portion of North Texas into Southeast Oklahoma

[Ntxw]

The leading edge of the cold front is somewhere past Graham in NW counties, winds have switched to the N/NW and howling.

[gboudx]

Hopefully the cold depth increases enough for more sleet than freezing rain. Any chance of more sleet than freezing rain?

Texas Snowman, interesting story you posted a few pages back. We're gonna make our preps today.

We have DirecTV and I've read mixed reviews on spraying the dish with cooking spray to keep ice form accumulating. Has anyone ever tried this and have an experience to share? If ice forms on the dish, we'll be without TV until I can get it off, or it melts.

Worked like a charm for me during super bowl week two years ago although that was more snow than ice.

Yeah we had more sleet and snow than freezing rain back then too. I did have to go knock the snow off the dish as it was disrupting the signal. I'm going to spray it on this evening and hope it works. Thanks for the reply.

[gpsnowman]

The leading edge of the cold front is somewhere past Graham in NW counties, winds have switched to the N/NW and howling.

Graham. Wow. This front is way ahead of schedule, is it not? Because of this, what are the odds of frozen precip starting earlier, say Thursday evening? Both the wife and I work and the kids have school. This could be a disaster.

[iorange55]

Funny that the TTU model which had last weeks event pegged 30 hours before the event is showing only a 20% chance of frozen precip in the DFW area as of 5PM on Friday afternoon.

http://www.atmo.ttu.edu/bancell/real_time_WRF/ttuwrfhome.php?dmn=2km&prm=sfc_frzprob&run=0

As is always said, the Lucy storms are the ones that everyone, including the models, forecasts as a high impact storm well in advance. & the actual killer storms are the ones that are underforecast.

While that might seem like the case, it's mostly like not. It's just you remember times the models were wrong more than you remember the times where they were right.

It's the same thing in sports. People remember Yu Darvish's "bad" outings or Tony Romo's interceptions, and automatically hate them for the rest of the season even though they have amazing stats.

[Tejas89]

Dallas Marathon just shot this message out.

Weather Update

Sunday’s forecast for the 44th running of our race currently anticipates temperatures in the mid-to-upper 30s on race day. We recommend that all participants, volunteers and spectators dress appropriately, wearing layers that can be discarded as needed.

We are closely monitoring the Dallas weather forecast and unless conditions are deemed unsafe for our race participants by the Dallas Police Department or the City of Dallas, we anticipate that the MetroPCS Dallas Marathon will go on as planned. We will notify participants and the general public with updates via the MetroPCS Dallas Marathon email database, social media channels and through media outlets.

I'm doing my last training run this evening and was hoping for those near-record forecast highs... doesn't look it from the front's progress!