Texas Winter 2013-2014

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Texas Snowman
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Re:

#561 Postby Texas Snowman » Wed Dec 04, 2013 12:11 am

gboudx wrote::uarrow: yeah I'm all for the SREF if this could be a crippling ice storm. I've never experienced one but I could go my whole life and not feel like I missed anything.


I was the news/sports director for KLAK 97.5 FM and KMKT 93.1 FM here in Sherman/Denison back in 2000. That's when the "Silver Christmas" ice storm hit Grayson, Fannin, and Lamar counties in North Texas and all of the southern Oklahoma counties from Durant to McAlester to Broken Bow.

I was scheduled to be off on the two or three days after Christmas that year. But I ended up being called in and working 13+ hour days and being on the air every 15 minutes broadcasting news updates, power company updates, weather info, etc. It was hard to drive through town because of all of the downed trees and limbs. At it's worst, there were more than a quarter of a million people without power in the Red River Valley and SE Oklahoma. And remember, there aren't any large cities in these areas.

It was the worst icing I've seen as an adult. I remember watching heavy rain fall with temps in the low to mid 20s on Christmas Day and thinking this is not good. That night I stood on my porch watching blue explosions across my part of town as big limbs and trees went down and blew transformers.

Well more than a 1/2 inch of ice accumulated on trees and power lines in our area. Massive hardwood trees were felled during that storm here in Denison. Pine trees to our east and NE didn't stand a chance. The Beavers Bend State Park area of SE Oklahoma was a disaster area for months and closed for some time until the downed trees could be dealt with.

Locally in Grayson County, power lines snapped like rubber bands. A number of transmission towers went down between Tom Bean, Howe, and Bells in that storm and portions of the local grid had to be all but rebuilt. While we didn't lose power in my home through some miracle, people behind us were without power for a week plus. People one block over in the other direction were without power for several days. Other areas in Denison and Grayson County were without power for over two weeks. Some places in SE Oklahoma were without power for nearly three weeks.
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Re:

#562 Postby Texas Snowman » Wed Dec 04, 2013 12:22 am

Ntxw wrote:Lots of stuff going on for us. Something to think about :darrow:. It's going to keep coming, it has been a long time since something like this has happened. Take it all in because what you are seeing is special, we will not see the Pacific do something like this again in a very long time.

http://i41.tinypic.com/vhdbfd.gif


Agreed. Ryan Maue has had several tweets the last day or so talking about this:

"Looks like coldest December in decades is on the way..."

"ECMWF 12z goes colder yet for Dec 10-11 than Saturday the 7th as Arctic blast reloads."

"New ECMWF 12z still going for CONUS spatial avg of 14.6°F for Saturday at 12z. That's historically early cold for meteorological winter."

"Historically, upcoming week will have USA Lower-48 spatially avg low temps of 14-17°F -- coldest for so early in December (in past 35-yrs)."

"From 1979-2012 for all December days (n=1054), only 29 or 2.7% had CONUS avg temp of less than 16°F."

"Dec 18-30, '83 included 11 days sub-16°F. Dec 16-23, 1989 (n=8), Dec 22-26, '90 (n=5), Dec 19, '96, Dec 22-23, '98, Dec 24, '04, Dec 22, '08."

"November CONUS temp drop from 50° to 30°F impressive -- 20°F drops are rare & should be studied for cause/impacts."

"Looking historical CONUS avg temps for December temp crashes. 1983 surely qualifies. Woosh. pic.twitter.com/cb0prLqXGW
Last edited by Texas Snowman on Wed Dec 04, 2013 12:24 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Re:

#563 Postby Ntxw » Wed Dec 04, 2013 12:23 am

South Texas Storms wrote:I agree with you on that. Losing power for several days when it's very cold outside can't be fun at all. I love any kind of precipitation, but I rather have a good heavy rain, sleet, or snow storm over a freezing rain storm.

Ntxw, in regards to the upcoming cold shots, does it look like these will be deeper and colder air masses? So if we can get some moisture and disturbances to interact with the future cold air masses, will there be a greater chance of snow compared to freezing rain?


I can't say for sure. I think the reason the cold has been so shallow this year is because the AO has remained very positive. Low heights (deep cold air) has been locked up for the most part. An individual strong storm can probably deliver but as you've discussed the SOI has been too positive to signal such a system, however the daily SOI has gone negative.

CPC's thoughts, Dallas to Memphis Ice storm.

Image
Last edited by Ntxw on Wed Dec 04, 2013 12:25 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Re:

#564 Postby Texas Snowman » Wed Dec 04, 2013 12:25 am

Ntxw wrote:CPC's thoughts, Dallas to Memphis Ice storm.

http://i40.tinypic.com/sfcimx.png


Potentially 1979 all over again.
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#565 Postby South Texas Storms » Wed Dec 04, 2013 12:27 am

FWIW, tonight's 0z GFS and today's 12z Euro runs both show another freezing rain event in about 8 days across central Texas.
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#566 Postby DonWrk » Wed Dec 04, 2013 12:35 am

Front is already approaching oklahoma panhandle.
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#567 Postby Ntxw » Wed Dec 04, 2013 12:41 am

Side note: 0Z GFS keeps DFW at or below freezing for 120+ hours. If there is indeed ice around the effects will be felt long after it ends.

:uarrow:

CONCERNS...ARRIVAL OF FRONT AT THE DFW TAF SITES TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

AN ARCTIC FRONT IS QUICKLY MAKING ITS WAY DOWN THE PLAINS AND WILL
ARRIVE IN NORTH TEXAS SEVERAL HOURS SOONER THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT. THROUGH TONIGHT...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS BELOW 10 KTS
WILL PREVAIL. IN THE DFW AREA...THE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
WESTERLY AROUND 16Z. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY
AND QUIETLY SEEP THROUGH DFW AROUND 20-21Z TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
THE WINDS MAY ACTUALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR A FEW HOURS AS
THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR BUT NORTH WINDS SHOULD
PREVAIL BY THE EVENING HOURS. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT
WITH STRONGER WINDS BETWEEN 15-20 KTS ON THURSDAY.

THE FRONT WILL NOT REACH KACT IN THIS TAF PERIOD AND EXPECT SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE FRONT WILL
ARRIVE TOMORROW NIGHT...JUST BEYOND THE TIMING OF THIS TAF PERIOD.

IN THE EXTENDED...FROZEN PRECIPITATION NOW APPEARS MORE LIKELY AT
THE DFW TAF SITES AS EARLY AS THURSDAY EVENING AND IS A
POSSIBILITY AT WACO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
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#568 Postby Snowman67 » Wed Dec 04, 2013 12:52 am

Driving from Tomball (just NW of Houston) to Waco for the BU vs UT football game. Game is at 2:30 pm Saturday. Am I better off leaving Friday, or waiting until Saturday morning? Thx.
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Re:

#569 Postby Ntxw » Wed Dec 04, 2013 1:09 am

Snowman67 wrote:Driving from Tomball (just NW of Houston) to Waco for the BU vs UT football game. Game is at 2:30 pm Saturday. Am I better off leaving Friday, or waiting until Saturday morning? Thx.


Go Thursday. Friday is not the day to be driving, stay away from North Texas if you can it will be a complete mess.
Last edited by Ntxw on Wed Dec 04, 2013 1:10 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#570 Postby aggiecutter » Wed Dec 04, 2013 1:10 am

I've thought all a long this December would be similar to December of 2000. Even though the winter weather has started earlier than it did in 2000, the parallels are still there. Below is an excerpt from an article from a Texarkana radio station concerning the weather events of December 2000. The timing of the winter weather events are similar. They just started a little earlier this year.

BTW, I was without power for 8 days because of the Christmas day ice storm, and I was one of the lucky ones. Some people in the rural areas didn't have power for nearly a month. I'll never forget the sounds of helicopters flying overhead the next morning assessing the damage. When I walked outside, it looked like a war zone.

The day after the ice storm, FEMA crews were brought in to clear the streets of limbs and trees that littered the streets. There was no food, water or gas to be found in the Texarkana area. I had to drive to Mount Pleasant for supplies. Electrical crews from all over the country were brought in to restore power. They pretty much had to rebuild the whole electrical infrastructure from substations to power poles to power lines. One of the linesman who came in from Florida told me the tree damage and the damage to the electrical infrastructure was similar to hurricane Andrew, if not worse.

"2000 Ice Storms

Round #1 – On December 12th, an arctic airmass spilled southward out of the central plains and into the lower Mississippi Valley. This cold airmass was overrun by a warm and humid airmass and created a mixture of freezing rain, sleet and snow across the region. Accumulations of 2-6 inches were common around NorthEast Texas and SouthWest, Arkansas and over 235,000 people were without power for up to two weeks.

Round #2 – As the area struggled to clean up from the first ice storm, another round of frozen precipitation hit the ark-la-tex again on Christmas day dropping up to six inches of freezing rain. Tens of thousands of trees and power lines, many already weakened by the ice from earlier in the month, broke or fell from the weight of the ice leaving thousands of residents without power for weeks. To make matter worse, an additional 3-6 inches of snow (7 in some areas of SW Arkansas) fell over the area on New Years Eve. Utility crews from 23 states were brought in to help restore power. Several utility workers were killed due to coming in contact with downed power lines hidden under the ice and snow."
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Re: Re:

#571 Postby Snowman67 » Wed Dec 04, 2013 1:15 am

Ntxw wrote:
Snowman67 wrote:Driving from Tomball (just NW of Houston) to Waco for the BU vs UT football game. Game is at 2:30 pm Saturday. Am I better off leaving Friday, or waiting until Saturday morning? Thx.


Go Thursday. Friday is not the day to be driving, stay away from North Texas if you can it will be a complete mess.


Thanks Ntxw. Good advice, best to be safe.
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#572 Postby Longhornmaniac8 » Wed Dec 04, 2013 1:24 am

Here is the 0Z GFS meteogram for Austin.

Image

It wouldn't shock me to see the front get here even a couple of hours before that.

Cheers,
Cameron
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#573 Postby orangeblood » Wed Dec 04, 2013 1:31 am

Tonight's European Run now going towards the wetter solution. Joins the NAM, GFS and Canadian models depicting at least 0.50 inches of liquid precip falling into subfreezing surface temps across of large area of North Texas including parts of the metroplex.
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#574 Postby Ntxw » Wed Dec 04, 2013 1:40 am

Did you see what the Euro is doing temp wise? It is bringing single digits to North Texas and some places even get near 0 come Tuesday! :uarrow:
Last edited by Ntxw on Wed Dec 04, 2013 1:41 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2013-2014

#575 Postby Longhornmaniac8 » Wed Dec 04, 2013 1:41 am

What does it say about Central Texas? While I'm certain North Texas will get the brunt of this storm, it could still pack quite a punch for us, too. The 0Z GFS doesn't have us above freezing between Friday afternoon and Sunday morning.
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Re:

#576 Postby Kludge » Wed Dec 04, 2013 1:42 am

Texas Snowman wrote:Let's keep in mind what we're talking about here.

I'm all for the Karl Malden nose. We're talking not about a snowstorm or a sleet storm but an all-out full-fledged power line breaking, tree breaking, lengthy power outage kind of an ICE STORM.

I've lived through two of those historic beasts (one, the 1979 storm as a kid in Memphis, TN which got plastered with a huge ice storm the day after Dallas did; the other here in Denison on Christmas Day 2000 when nearly 250,000 lost power in the Red River Valley from here to Broken Bow, OK).

There is nothing desirable about a freezing rain/ice storm event. Snow and sleet, ok. Record cold where I can burn a fire in the wood burning stove and drink hot chocolate by the Christmas tree while carols play, ok.

But I'll pass on a big-time ice storm.


AGREED on all points. I want snow. Lots of it. I do not want Ice. Other than a visual spectacle, it has no benefits whatsoever.

Over the 50 years I've lived in central and then southeast Texas, I've experienced a number of ice storms, and never had a redeeming memory. They left us without power for days, chilled us to the bone, and left horrible damage to trees and foliage.

And as I look back to the conditions that led up to them...I see lots of familiarities with the coming weekend. In my non-professional opinion, the area from Waco to Brownwood to Decatur to Sulphur Springs is in for a miserable 2-3 days.

I hope I'm wrong.
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Re:

#577 Postby orangeblood » Wed Dec 04, 2013 1:44 am

Ntxw wrote:Did you see what the Euro is doing temp wise? It is bring single digits to North Texas and some places even get near 0 come Tuesday! :uarrow:


Just noticed that, low of 4 deg F at DFW airport Tuesday morning with -2 deg F in Paris, TX. We knew these models would go lower but yikes this is getting ridiculous.
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#578 Postby gpsnowman » Wed Dec 04, 2013 1:54 am

Wow! Steve Mccauley just posted on his facebook page a Mcfarland Signature is trying to develope across the country!!! :cold: :cold:
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Re:

#579 Postby Ntxw » Wed Dec 04, 2013 1:55 am

gpsnowman wrote:Wow! Steve Mccauley just posted on his facebook page a Mcfarland Signature is trying to develope across the country!!! :cold: :cold:


It has already developed for the past week, we are just awaiting how much of it comes ushering down.
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Re:

#580 Postby Kludge » Wed Dec 04, 2013 1:56 am

Ntxw wrote:Did you see what the Euro is doing temp wise? It is bringing single digits to North Texas and some places even get near 0 come Tuesday! :uarrow:



Yepper. This one's gonna leave a mark. "In my amateur opinionTM" , the past year, and especially the past non-ice-event of last week, have caused the local mets to go waaay conservative on the potential of the next few days. Hopefully the advisories will go out in time to cause folks to prepare accordingly.
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