Texas Winter 2013-2014

[SouthernMet]

Classic Ice Storm setup for DFW.. Could see Ice Storm Warnings if heavier bands develop.

[BigB0882]

GFS seems to show a big warm up after the 2nd wave of cold, beyond the 12th or so. Of course, that is getting beyond 200 hours so who knows how correct it is. I want RELENTLESS COLD.

[South Texas Storms]

Here is my latest weather article on the upcoming winter weather event across Texas!
http://www.examiner.com/article/winter-weather-returns-to-texas-later-this-week

[Meteorcane]

GFS seems to show a big warm up after the 2nd wave of cold, beyond the 12th or so. Of course, that is getting beyond 200 hours so who knows how correct it is. I want RELENTLESS COLD.

No thank you a week of cold is plenty, while I wouldn't be against some more snow in the winter I would be perfectly content if temps don't drop below 20 degrees again.

[Wntrwthrguy]

Anyone have any thoughts on Austin/Round Rock/Pflugerville weather for Friday morning? I am moving that morning and hope the frozen precip can hold off till Friday night.

[Ntxw]

GFS has a second round of freezing rain and sleet Sunday for the state. This one is more likely to extend further south in Central Texas and north parts of SE Texas associated with an incoming shortwave out west.

[Texas Snowman]

Anyone want to bet if this thread gets to 100 pages by Christmas?

[Texas Snowman]

Classic Ice Storm setup for DFW.. Could see Ice Storm Warnings if heavier bands develop.

Yes it is. Instead of 1983 and 1989 we will probably start seeing 1979 (infamous Cotton Bowl/Dallas/North Texas ice storm) and 2000 (Red River Valley ice storm) coming into our discussions.

[RedRiverRefuge]

just read the FWD discussion. Appears to be a back off in confidence based on SREF. Makes ya go hummmm.

"HOWEVER IT IS CONCERNING THE SREF IS STILL FORECASTING A MARGINAL FREEZING RAIN EVENT FOR THIS REGION WHICH LOWERS OUR CONFIDENCE. IT IS ALSO CONCERNING THAT THE WARM NOSE WILL BE VERY WARM...AND RAIN DROPS WILL LIKELY TRANSPORT WARM
AIR TO THE SURFACE...WHICH WOULD INHIBIT ICE ACCUMULATION AND
IMPACTS.

[dhweather]

This is not a skew T sounding you want to see. DFW would be a skating rink come Friday's commute.

http://i43.tinypic.com/2i6j5g5.png

That nose would make Karl Malden jealous!

[Ntxw]

That nose would make Karl Malden jealous!

Post of the day. If Portastorm writes up a winter storm discussion (remember the great one from last Christmas?) he better include that!

[SouthernMet]

just read the FWD discussion. Appears to be a back off in confidence based on SREF. Makes ya go hummmm.

"HOWEVER IT IS CONCERNING THE SREF IS STILL FORECASTING A MARGINAL FREEZING RAIN EVENT FOR THIS REGION WHICH LOWERS OUR CONFIDENCE. IT IS ALSO CONCERNING THAT THE WARM NOSE WILL BE VERY WARM...AND RAIN DROPS WILL LIKELY TRANSPORT WARM
AIR TO THE SURFACE...WHICH WOULD INHIBIT ICE ACCUMULATION AND
IMPACTS.

This is actually a legit concern, considering this is the reason why they got "burned" with the last system. Something that needs to be watched imo. But still at this time models consistently illustrate a potential for a significant freezing rain event

[Texas Snowman]

Let's keep in mind what we're talking about here.

I'm all for the Karl Malden nose. We're talking not about a snowstorm or a sleet storm but an all-out full-fledged power line breaking, tree breaking, lengthy power outage kind of an ICE STORM.

I've lived through two of those historic beasts (one, the 1979 storm as a kid in Memphis, TN which got plastered with a huge ice storm the day after Dallas did; the other here in Denison on Christmas Day 2000 when nearly 250,000 lost power in the Red River Valley from here to Broken Bow, OK).

There is nothing desirable about a freezing rain/ice storm event. Snow and sleet, ok. Record cold where I can burn a fire in the wood burning stove and drink hot chocolate by the Christmas tree while carols play, ok.

But I'll pass on a big-time ice storm.

[Texas Snowman]

FYI, a number of North Texas high schools are either adjusting or talking about adjusting playoff football schedules due to the forecast.

http://highschoolsportsblog.dallasnews. ... ther.html/

"Mesquite Poteet and Ennis are moving their regional quarterfinal football playoff game to 6 p.m. Thursday at Dallas ISD’s Kincaide Stadium.

The game was originally scheduled for 7:30 p.m. Friday at Allen’s Eagle Stadium, but with freezing temperatures and wintry precipitation in the forecast, the schools decided to play it safe. Pre-sold tickets are still good at the new venue.

The Aledo vs. Wichita Falls game was also moved up a day. The 4A Division II Region I final will now be at 6 p.m. Thursday at Justin Northwest.

Highland Park coach Randy Allen said in an email that Friday’s Wylie vs. Highland Park game will now be played at Allen instead of Southlake’s Dragon Stadium. Kickoff is still 7:30 p.m. for the 4A Division I Region II final."

[stormkite]

Not from the USA myself in our parts we use BSCH it covers the USA as well it use's GFS worth a look.

http://usa.bsch.com.au/stormcast.html?o ... ts:fcst#sc

[newtotex]

Let's keep in mind what we're talking about here.

I'm all for the Karl Malden nose. We're talking not about a snowstorm or a sleet storm but an all-out full-fledged power line breaking, tree breaking, lengthy power outage kind of an ICE STORM.

I've lived through two of those historic beasts (one, the 1979 storm as a kid in Memphis, TN which got plastered with a huge ice storm the day after Dallas did; the other here in Denison on Christmas Day 2000 when nearly 250,000 lost power in the Red River Valley from here to Broken Bow, OK).

There is nothing desirable about a freezing rain/ice storm event. Snow and sleet, ok. Record cold where I can burn a fire in the wood burning stove and drink hot chocolate by the Christmas tree while carols play, ok.

But I'll pass on a big-time ice storm.

I second this.
I was in the big ice storm in Memphis when I was 6 and I remember having no power and it sucking.

[gboudx]

yeah I'm all for the SREF if this could be a crippling ice storm. I've never experienced one but I could go my whole life and not feel like I missed anything.

[Ntxw]

Lots of stuff going on for us. Something to think about . It's going to keep coming, it has been a long time since something like this has happened. Take it all in because what you are seeing is special, we will not see the Pacific do something like this again in a very long time.

[orangeblood]

just read the FWD discussion. Appears to be a back off in confidence based on SREF. Makes ya go hummmm.

"HOWEVER IT IS CONCERNING THE SREF IS STILL FORECASTING A MARGINAL FREEZING RAIN EVENT FOR THIS REGION WHICH LOWERS OUR CONFIDENCE. IT IS ALSO CONCERNING THAT THE WARM NOSE WILL BE VERY WARM...AND RAIN DROPS WILL LIKELY TRANSPORT WARM
AIR TO THE SURFACE...WHICH WOULD INHIBIT ICE ACCUMULATION AND
IMPACTS.

This is actually a legit concern, considering this is the reason why they got "burned" with the last system. Something that needs to be watched imo. But still at this time models consistently illustrate a potential for a significant freezing rain event

Discussed this earlier today, cold air advection this time around should trump any warm air transport. If they're influenced by the bust with the last system, why don't they go with the Model that nailed the bust event.....The GFS. Doesn't make sense to hug a model on the extremely conservative side in a potential serious situation such as this

[South Texas Storms]

Let's keep in mind what we're talking about here.

I'm all for the Karl Malden nose. We're talking not about a snowstorm or a sleet storm but an all-out full-fledged power line breaking, tree breaking, lengthy power outage kind of an ICE STORM.

I've lived through two of those historic beasts (one, the 1979 storm as a kid in Memphis, TN which got plastered with a huge ice storm the day after Dallas did; the other here in Denison on Christmas Day 2000 when nearly 250,000 lost power in the Red River Valley from here to Broken Bow, OK).

There is nothing desirable about a freezing rain/ice storm event. Snow and sleet, ok. Record cold where I can burn a fire in the wood burning stove and drink hot chocolate by the Christmas tree while carols play, ok.

But I'll pass on a big-time ice storm.

I agree with you on that. Losing power for several days when it's very cold outside can't be fun at all. I love any kind of precipitation, but I rather have a good heavy rain, sleet, or snow storm over a freezing rain storm.

Ntxw, in regards to the upcoming cold shots, does it look like these will be deeper and colder air masses? So if we can get some moisture and disturbances to interact with the future cold air masses, will there be a greater chance of snow compared to freezing rain?