Texas Winter 2013-2014

[opticsguy]

00Z NAM had the cold air moving faster than the 12 and 18Z runs. Doesn't the NAM have a tendency to do that with shallow cold air?

[TheProfessor]

Are there any models showing anything big 2 weeks from now? perhaps something near christmas?

[wxman57]

Are there any models showing anything big 2 weeks from now? perhaps something near christmas?

Check back in another 10-15 days.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

NAM 84 hr has CLL getting awfully close to seeing some accumulating ice... A degree or two to the downside and the northern part of the HGX area will have to have Advisories issued Friday.

I'm looking at Brazos, Walker, Grimes and possibly Rural Northern Montgomery counties

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

Dallas-Fort Worth are now under a Winter Storm Watch for late Thursday into Friday.

[Ntxw]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
902 PM CST TUE DEC 3 2013

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A
GOLDTHWAITE TO CLEBURNE TO SULPHUR SPRINGS LINE...

.AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING RAPIDLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY
ON THURSDAY. RAIN WILL BEGIN TO FALL BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY
AND SHOULD TURN TO FREEZING RAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING WHEN
TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING. THE FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WILL BE AFFECTED
FIRST BY THE FREEZING RAIN...BUT ROADS MAY ALSO BECOME ICY
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE WEIGHT OF THE ICE MAY ALSO BRING
DOWN POWER LINES AND TREES. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF 1/4 INCH OR MORE
ARE EXPECTED. FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WHICH COULD PROLONG TRAVEL IMPACTS DUE TO ICE.

TXZ094-095-104>107-118>120-130>133-141>144-041130-
/O.EXA.KFWD.WS.A.0002.131206T0000Z-131207T0000Z/
FANNIN-LAMAR-COLLIN-HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-TARRANT-DALLAS-ROCKWALL-
ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-JOHNSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BONHAM...PARIS...PLANO...GREENVILLE...
COMMERCE...COOPER...SULPHUR SPRINGS...FORT WORTH...ARLINGTON...
DALLAS...ROCKWALL...STEPHENVILLE...DUBLIN...GRANBURY...
OAK TRAIL SHORES...GLEN ROSE...CLEBURNE...BURLESON...COMANCHE...
DE LEON...GOLDTHWAITE...HAMILTON...HICO...CLIFTON...MERIDIAN...
VALLEY MILLS
902 PM CST TUE DEC 3 2013

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

* TIMING...RAIN IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN
THURSDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

* MAIN IMPACT...BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES MAY BECOME SLICK DUE TO
ICE.

* OTHER POSSIBLE IMPACTS...ICE ACCUMULATIONS MAY BRING DOWN TREES
AND POWER LINES...AND COULD CAUSE POWER OUTAGES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.

IT MUST BE STRESSED THAT MINOR CHANGES IN THE TRACK AND TIMING OF
THE STORM SYSTEM COULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS AND LOCATIONS OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION.

[South Texas Storms]

Looks like you folks in the DFW area could get a pretty big ice storm this weekend. Hopefully it isn't too bad for y'all!

[Tireman4]

NAM 84 hr has CLL getting awfully close to seeing some accumulating ice... A degree or two to the downside and the northern part of the HGX area will have to have Advisories issued Friday.

I'm looking at Brazos, Walker, Grimes and possibly Rural Northern Montgomery counties

I will bet this will get more interesting as the week wears on...

[TheProfessor]

Will a winter storm warning come or will it be an ice storm warning?

[South Texas Storms]

It also looks like the chances of freezing rain here in College Station are increasing for this weekend. Like many others have stated, it appears as though the models are now beginning to trend toward a faster and stronger push of the arctic air mass southward through the state. Friday is the first day of final exams here at Texas A&M University. I wonder what would happen if the university has to shut down due to icy roads. I'm not sure the final exams could be rescheduled due to graduation being just a few days later.

[Ntxw]

Will a winter storm warning come or will it be an ice storm warning?

Most likely an ice storm warning along and east of I-35, winter storm warning to the WNW of Fort Worth

[orangeblood]

Models continue to depict more precip/colder conditions....check out the new NAM showing > 0.50 inch liquid precip from northwest of Austin through the Metroplex into Northeast Texas. Much more serious event if this were to verify



Frozen Precip accumulations

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I think early Friday, CLL will be fine... It's Friday rush hour through Sunday Morning that raises my eyebrows...

[Meteorcane]

Nam freezing rain line looks a bit further south than the last couple of runs, also Central Texas forecast soundings look textbook FZRA.

[Ntxw]

This is not a skew T sounding you want to see. DFW would be a skating rink come Friday's commute.

[iorange55]

Looks like the 00z GFS is coming in faster with the cold temps.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

[PTrackerLA]

Does the NAM confuse freezing rain with snow in that graphic? It shows some areas getting over a foot . Hope it's more snow than ice, stay safe over there!

[orangeblood]

Does the NAM confuse freezing rain with snow in that graphic? It shows some areas getting over a foot . Hope it's more snow than ice, stay safe over there!

Yeah, its not picking up on the warm layer a few thousand feet up that should melt any snow that does fall by the time it reaches the surface. For each tenth of an inch liquid precip, its depicting an inch of snow. So say for 6 inches of snow on that map, translates to approximately 0.60 of an inch of ice.

[Ntxw]

GFS is just as nasty, prolonged duration of freezing rain, then changing to sleet in the backend. I am hoping we get into the deeper cold air.