Texas Winter 2013-2014

[Tireman4]

[I think CYCLONE MIKE is probably, for the most part, correct. And that's a real shame to me. No, not CM being correct but that folks take the attitude of "I'll believe it when I see it." This board is for weather fans. We discuss current weather, past weather, ponder future weather ... and opine about, learn from, and share with others about all of the existing tools which are in the weather game. People should always understand that weather remains somewhat unpredictable despite the many amazing advancements in science. Sure, we've all had our hearts broken a lot more than we have experiencing weather joy. It's no different than being a sports fan, really. But that is what should make this all the more fun. I think we're here to discuss the possibilities of what MAY occur and what we think MIGHT occur as much if not more so than what DOES occur.

But as Mike said, many here are in a watch-and-wait mode and I'm pretty sure that if it looks like a weather event is going to happen, this board will light up like a Christmas tree once again.

Remember, you all are the ones who can make this forum a lot of fun or a lame online exercise. It's not about us mods or admins.

I am still here.

[TheProfessor]

I'm new,but how much ice do you think areas north of i-30 will receive thank you.

ps sorry if my previous message appear which would make this message redundant.

[Portastorm]

I'm new,but how much ice do you think areas north of i-30 will receive thank you.

ps sorry if my previous message appear which would make this message redundant.

Coupla thoughts here:

1) Welcome to Storm2K and thank you for posting! Good to have you here.

2) It would be great if you could update your profile to indicate which city or community you currently reside

3) Anything north of I-30 to me could mean north Texas or northeast Texas. According to the latest maps and prediction from NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, the further northeast you go into Texas the more precip will fall. How much of it falls when surface temps are at or below freezing remains the big question. IMO, anyone from Greenville to Texarkana might expect to see 1/4-inch or more glazing of ice per current models.

[gboudx]

Well for wintry precip I cetainly lean much closer to the side of I'll believe when I see it. For hurricanes, I always advise my family members in NOLA to take the prudent approach and be prepared to evacuate. Difference here is no one evacuates in preparation of wintry precip. The grocery store is 2 mins away and we can stock up quickly. But I'll never get too high or low based on model runs. Been there, done whiffed that football.

[sooner101]

When should we expect any winter storm watches or warnings in the dfw metroplex?

[TheProfessor]

Ok thanks i updated it.

[Ntxw]

Good evening guys, a little update on the EPO before I get in depth on the winter storm potential after the 0z models.

As of today the EPO is on the verge of lower than 3SD's below normal (the daily's are lagging by a few days but I'm pretty certain it is). The warm pool in the gulf of Alaska is as warm as we have ever seen it, beating out 1989 and nearing 1899 warmth for this region for this time of year. Warmest since I can find using reanalysis.

[BigB0882]

And we all remember what happened in 1989 and I remember reading about 1899, wasn't that when Galveston's bay froze?

[wxman57]

When should we expect any winter storm watches or warnings in the dfw metroplex?

Probably Thursday morning.

[katheria]

There are also letters from 1821 from a lady named Jane Long that was at Fort Las Casas, on Bolivar peninsula.

I found these several years ago while researching my family history in Texas.
(I have copies of them somewhere)

She mentions in the letters that the entire bay froze over. She and her son cut holes in the ice to gather the fish that were under the ice.

[TrekkerCC]

And we all remember what happened in 1989 and I remember reading about 1899, wasn't that when Galveston's bay froze?

It is The "outbreak" in U.S. recorded history. The Port of New Orleans was completely iced over. Dallas/Ft Worth, TX had its all-time lowest recorded temperature at -8F. On the East Coast, they contended with a massive blizzard that crippled the Northeast. Before the event occurred, there were new arctic intrusions preparing the way at the rate of one every two days at times. It was certainly a extraordinary period of time and I assume that a similar arctic outbreak would be crazy to see on the models and forecasters would be pulling their hair out (sorry, wxman57).

An article (that you can download and read) was co-authored by former TWC Winter Expert, Paul Kocin, about the 1899 Outbreak: http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/1520-0434(1988)003%3C0305%3ATGAOAE%3E2.0.CO%3B2 (I hope this link works for everyone)

[katheria]

dont work

[Meteorcane]

And we all remember what happened in 1989 and I remember reading about 1899, wasn't that when Galveston's bay froze?

It is The "outbreak" in U.S. recorded history. The Port of New Orleans was completely iced over. Dallas/Ft Worth, TX had its all-time lowest recorded temperature at -8F. On the East Coast, they contended with a massive blizzard that crippled the Northeast. Before the event occurred, there were new arctic intrusions preparing the way at the rate of one every two days at times. It was certainly a extraordinary period of time and I assume that a similar arctic outbreak would be crazy to see on the models and forecasters would be pulling their hair out (sorry, wxman57).

An article (that you can download and read) was co-authored by former TWC Winter Expert, Paul Kocin, about the 1899 Outbreak: http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10. ... -0434(1988)003%3C0305%3ATGAOAE%3E2.0.CO%3B2 (I hope this link works for everyone)

It even got below 0 in FLORIDA during that event, and I think the record low set in Dallas is several degrees lower than anything before or since.

[gboudx]

This may be what TrekkerCC tried to post:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/bro/rese ... k_1899.pdf

[TrekkerCC]

This may be what TrekkerCC tried to post:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/bro/rese ... k_1899.pdf

Yeah - different source but it is the same article. You will need a PDF reader (you can download one freely) to read it. It is an academic article, so the discussion will be very technical in nature, but it is a great read for weather history buffs.

[katheria]

Thank you. will make for some good reading friday if i am at home

NWS FORT WORTH TX put up a new graphic at 6:39pm


"Here is a summary of the winter weather we expect Thursday through Sunday: An arctic front will arrive on Wednesday. Precipitation will begin Thursday; likely as a cold rain but then transitioning to freezing rain as temperatures fall into the upper 20s and lower 30s. The most likely location for freezing rain is northwest of a line from Goldthwaite to Waxahachie to Sulphur Springs. However, the exact locations impacts by freezing rain could change! The precipitation will continue into Friday, and then we will see a break before the next round of precipitation occurs this weekend. The second round will consist of mainly freezing rain and sleet over the region. In addition to the winter precipitation, temperatures will be very cold through the weekend. Several locations will not warm above freezing all weekend and icy conditions may persist through the weekend. Prolonged travel impacts and power outages are possible through the weekend especially where heavy ice accumulates. If you are in or near the watch area, begin making preparations now for possible power outages, icy roads, and the likelihood of having to remain at home for several days. Keep up with the latest weather updates. For more specific information on forecast updates, timing, precipitation type and temperatures, visit our webpage at http://www.weather.gov"

[horselattitudesfarm]

Yeah, after getting burned issuing a winter storm warning for a cold rain, they are going to play it really close this time.

In other news, ironically, crews were trimming trees along the power lines not far from my house today. So that practically guarantees nothing will happen now.

Yea, I'm afraid we might all be watching the pot again to see when it might boil, or freeze

[TheProfessor]

18:00 Nam has some of the metroplex at or below freezing at 3:00 am thursday and most of the metroplex at 9:00 am central time. If this verified there could be a lot of ice on the ground.

[KatDaddy]

There is a much better chance of Wintry precip this time around in NTX with the prolonged low temps expected
. Still expecting a cold nasty rain down here in the Houston area.

[Ntxw]

For North Texas, this go around it doesn't matter if it falls before, during or after rain sleet or snow. It's going to freeze and freeze hard with staying power. People don't realize how long the models are keeping it cold. DFW could Hover in the 30s or lower for more than a week! Teens are coming early next week.