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Relevant snippets below.
EWX:
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE NEXT ARCTIC BLAST ARRIVES EARLY THURSDAY AND WILL PROVIDE
ANOTHER DAY OF RAPIDLY DESCENDING TEMPERATURES AND UNCERTAINTIES
ON MAX TEMPS FOR THE DAY. MODEL GUIDANCE TRENDS SUGGEST THE
NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY COULD DROP TO NEAR FREEZING BY EARLY IN THE
EVENING. NO WINTER MIX IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE SHALLOW AIR
MASS COULD PROMOTE FREEZING RAIN AS EARLY AS LATE THURSDAY
EVENING. IN A SIMILAR FASHION TO THE PAST WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM A
WEEK AGO. THERE WILL BE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF OVERRUNNING
INSTABILITY THAT IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE A THREAT OF A MAINLY
FREEZING RAIN AND A LITTLE SLEET...WITH HIGHER PRECIPITATION
TOTALS EXPECTED TO FOCUS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS FROM LATE THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
DYNAMICS ARE MUCH WEAKER...AND MOST OF THE RAINFALL AND FREEZING
RAINFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM
LOOKS TO BE COOLER AND THE LIGHT ICING THAT MAY DEVELOP HAS A
CHANCE TO AFFECT MORE AREAS. WITH UNCERTAINTIES IN TEMPERATURES
NOTED IN THE MODEL TRENDS...AND LOW AMOUNTS OF ICING EXPECTED...
WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING A WATCH AND KEEP WITH THE SPS. SOME
INCREASES IN SLEET POTENTIAL ARE ADDED IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE
OVER THE WEEKEND AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A FREEZING LAYER DEPTH TO
4000 FT IN NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE SLEET COULD ENHANCE
ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL...BUT THE OVERRUNNING PATTERN SHOULD BE
WEAKER THAN WHAT IS TO BE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.
A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR IS FORECAST FOR MONDAY TO PROLONG
THE COLD PERIOD. HOWEVER...THIS SURGE SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY DRIER
AIR ALOFT AND A BROADER DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE.
HGX:
WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL...LETS JUST SAY THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL
UNCERTAINTY. RIGHT NOW THERE LOOKS TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MAIN AREAS WILL BE
FROM COLLEGE STATION TO HUNTSVILLE TO GROVETON NORTHWARD. COLD
AIRMASS GETS COLDER ON FRI AND WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED OVER THE
FRONTAL SURFACE...COULD LEAD TO RAIN/DRIZZLE. POSSIBLE THAT THESE
AREAS COULD BECOME COLD ENOUGH LATE FRIDAY TO SUPPORT FREEZING
RAIN/DRIZZLE. THE MORE LIKELY TIME FRAME APPEARS TO BE SATURDAY
MORNING. GFS HAS TRENDED COLDER WITH THE AIRMASS WITH TEMPS BELOW
FREEZING. ECMWF SEEMS TO BE JUST AS COLD BUT ENDS PRECIP FRI
NIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SATURDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE NEXT JET STREAK. GFS RAMPS UP PRECIP SAT MORNING
AND THEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ECMWF IS SLOWER TO DO SO AND HAS
MUCH DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE WHICH WOULD HAVE TO SATURATE THROUGH
WET-BULB THERMODYNAMIC PROCESSES. SO IF THERE IS PRECIP FALLING
FROM 09Z-18Z SATURDAY...CHANCES ARE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A SUB-
FREEZING LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE FOR PRECIP TO FREEZE. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT WARM LAYER ABOVE WHICH MAY BE TOO
MUCH FOR PRECIP TO OVERCOME AND FREEZE. SOUNDINGS MAY SUPPORT MORE
DRIZZLE WHICH MAY NOT TAKE AS MUCH OF A SUB-FREEZING LAYER TO
CAUSE FREEZING. SO IF THE AIRMASS FRI NIGHT IS NOT AS DRY AS THE
ECMWF INDICATES THEN ANY PRECIP THAT DEVELOPS DUE TO ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL LIKELY FALL AS FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE. STILL QUITE A BIT
OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS BUT WORTH MONITORING.
