Oklahoma Winter Weather 2013/2014

[BlueIce]

Latest Special Weather Statement from NWS Norman

1207 PM CST MON DEC 2 2013

...WINTER STORM TO AFFECT THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...

A COLD AIR MASS WILL ARRIVE TO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND BRING COLDER AIR ACROSS ALL OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S AND 30S ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
THE TEENS AND 20S ARE ALSO EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD. WIND
CHILL VALUES BELOW ZERO AND SINGLE DIGITS ARE EXPECTED AT NIGHT
AND MAINLY IN THE TEENS DURING THE DAYTIME. TAKE PRECAUTIONS NOW
TO PREPARE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF COLD WEATHER.

SEVERAL PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO START EARLY THURSDAY
AND CONTINUE OFF AN ON UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS INCLUDES SNOW
OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...AND ADJACENT
PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS...CAN EXPECT FREEZING RAIN INITIALLY...WITH A
TRANSITION TO SNOW LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WILL LIKELY HAVE MAINLY RAIN CHANGING TO FREEZING
RAIN.

ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED...SOME
LOCATIONS FROM FAR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...
TOWARD CENTRAL OKLAHOMA COULD SEE MORE THAN A FEW INCHES OF SNOW
BY THE TIME PRECIPITATION ENDS FRIDAY. SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA WILL NEED TO BE PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ICE
ACCUMULATIONS THAT COULD RESULT IN TREE DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES.
THE WINTER STORM IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND DETAILS WILL BECOME
CLEARER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

[BlueIce]

Check out the latest GFS snow overlay for Oklahoma. Looking more interesting as each run has been fairly consistent on dumping a fair amount of precip near the I-44 corridor.



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[wx247]

I would be a little wary of taking that as all snow at face value. Sleet and freezing rain will be a component, too, which will cut into snow numbers. The cold air is just too shallow.

[Meteorcane]

I would be a little wary of taking that as all snow at face value. Sleet and freezing rain will be a component, too, which will cut into snow numbers. The cold air is just too shallow.

A lot of the winter precip on thursday will be freezing rain/sleet based on GFS/NAM forecast soundings, however, the second round of precip on friday has a decent chance of being primarily snow (based on forecast soundings), with a somewhat thick (compared to other OK snow events) dendritic growth zone, which could enhance snow accumulations. That being said it is still 3-4 days out, I think some fort of frozen precip is very likely for much of the state, the exact amounts, precip.type are obviously up in the air.

[BlueIce]

I would be a little wary of taking that as all snow at face value. Sleet and freezing rain will be a component, too, which will cut into snow numbers. The cold air is just too shallow.

Exactly why I said precip... tl;dr it might sleet or snow some in Oklahoma Thursday and Friday.

But looking deeper at both the NAM and the GFS I think we can begin to see a more clear change over from LGT- MDT sleet/freezing rain over to bands of snow in central Oklahoma through Thursday night around 6PM if you look at the GFS or Friday morning if you trust the NAM.

Really not a ton of difference between the two models at this time I think that based on the graphs below we are going to see more sleet than freezing rain in OKC. The biggest difference is at the 84 hour point out from the 18z NAM and GFS. You can clearly see that the NAM is thinking another round of moderate precip breaks out over Oklahoma. However, if you look at the temperature profiles on the NAM you would get another round of sleet in OKC. If the GFS pans out thats when we could start to see some big snow flakes start to fly over OKC Thursday night into Friday morning.

Obviously this is just my own interpretation and not a forecast monitor NWS for official products and warnings.


NAM Composite Reflectivity 6AM

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NAM Skew T Thursday Morning 6AM


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GFS Skew T Thursday Morning 6AM


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NAM Radar Noon Thursday


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NAM Skew T Noon Thursday


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GFS Skew T Noon Thursday


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NAM Radar Midnight Friday


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NAM Skew T Friday


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GFS Skew T Friday


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[Meteorcane]

Bluestorm let's hope those thermodynamic profiles pan out, ie. a sub-freezing column for Friday. Unfortunately it is looking like freezing rain turning to sleet for thursday's precip.

[kmc8264]

I'm hosting a basketball tournament in SW OK Thur. - Sat. It's starting to look like we may have a few weather problems during that time period. I will keep reading this and the Texas forums for weather information. I don't understand most of what I read but find it very interesting. Any advance info is a plus when planning for games and bus routes. Keep up the good work.

[BlueIce]

Bluestorm let's hope those thermodynamic profiles pan out, ie. a sub-freezing column for Friday. Unfortunately it is looking like freezing rain turning to sleet for thursday's precip.

The one thing that is certain in all of this is that computer models have historically had a tough time with forecasting arctic air masses. That's the great fun in watching winter weather unfold in the Great Plains!

[Meteorcane]

Whatever the case precip-wise it seems highly likely that starting thursday we will be spending the vast majority of the following 4-5 days below freezing, with lows in the low teens. Which is somewhat anomalous considering based on climatology OKC on average sees only 2 December days with highs below freezing (last year only had one such day). In fact here in Norman we already had two such days in november.

[TwisterFanatic]

Look for Winter Storm Watches and Winter Weather Advisories to come out early morning.

[TwisterFanatic]

0z GFS shows widespread .40-.70 Freezing rain amounts SE of the I-44 corridor. Would be a pretty significant storm.

[TwisterFanatic]

Ouch. 6z NAM drops 1-2 inches of Sleet/Freezing rain over SE and East Central Oklahoma.

Edit: Not sure it's handling the depth of the cold air well though, it keeps snow all the way up into Kansas and drops a ICE storm over almost all of Oklahoma. I don't see that happening.

[jporterOCCC]

I am a huge fan of snow and would love for this system to be all of that, but like BlueIce and Twistanic I am leaning towards sleet and ice to start everything off and be the primary precip for Thursday.

Bad thing is my truck is almost 200 miles away and I will be driving home Friday morning into this from the SE parts of Oklahoma.

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[BlueIce]

Winter Storm Watch now in place over most of the I-44 corridor to the east into Arkansas

425 AM CST TUE DEC 3 2013

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN ARE
EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. IN GENERAL...THE
MAIN SNOW AND SLEET IMPACTS ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR NEAR...AND
NORTH OF...A LINE FROM LAWTON TO NORMAN TO SHAWNEE. FARTHER
SOUTH...ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN.

* TIMING: LIGHT FREEZING RAIN MAY BEGIN THURSDAY MORNING. HEAVIER
FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW ARE EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY
EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

* MAIN IMPACT: DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY RESULT
FROM ACCUMULATION OF ICE AND SNOW.

* OTHER IMPACTS: ICE ACCUMULATION MAY CAUSE POWER OUTAGES IN PARTS
OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION...ESPECIALLY IF YOU
PLAN TO TRAVEL.

[Meteorcane]

12z NAM is showing primarily sleet profiles here in central OK for the bulk of the precip early friday (ie. 6-12z), honestly I think the precip will begin as sleet but will change over to snow towards the end of the precipitation event.

[Meteorcane]

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Let's just hope the medium range does not verify (I had to lower WXMAN's original (template) scale enough already)

[TwisterFanatic]

I'm moving to Mexico if that happens on the 11th.

[TwisterFanatic]

NWS has increased the snow totals and brought down the ice totals.

Now showing a swath of 6-8 inches of snow(up from 3-5) and and about .10-.15 of ICE(down from .30-.40)

[BlueIce]

I'm moving to Mexico if that happens on the 11th.

Airfare is looking like a warrented expense. That's Feburary cold. Brrr!

[Meteorcane]

I'm moving to Mexico if that happens on the 11th.

Yeah I have my doubts it will get that cold, but that would likely be one of the coldest December periods ever (the December record low for OKC is -8 degrees so it won't touch that) but I would half to think that extended period of cold would be something only seen here in the dead of winter.