Texas Winter 2013-2014

[wxman57]

WXMAN what about LUFKIN, I have a basketball tourney this weekend there, and we are coming from beaumont, will the roads be messy you think?

Current GFS indicates temps just below freezing in Lufkin as the precip starts on Saturday but rising above freezing during the day and staying above freezing during most of the precip period. It's a very shallow cold air layer there. I think the roads going up there will be fine, just wet. Probably no ice on roadways in Lufkin either.

[orangeblood]

Starting to get into the NAM's strike zone and it's showing the freezing temps arriving into DFW almost 6 hours faster than GFS, in line with the European. Speed of cold front will make a big difference on where the heaviest precip ends resides as shortwaves will tend to move along the arctic boundary. I would suspect the transition zone from rain to freezing rain to shift further south than GFS is currently depicting.


The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[wxman57]

The Euro has the freezing line reaching Dallas around 11pm Thursday then moving back north of Dallas around 1pm-2pm Friday. Back through Dallas around 8pm Friday then north of Dallas by 11am Saturday. Temperature hovers near freezing Saturday night then rises sharply on Sunday.

[Tireman4]

HGX AFD Morning...


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1043 AM CST MON DEC 2 2013

.UPDATE...
MORNING FORECAST UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
OVERALL EXPECTING SW WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT A
WARM START TO THE WORK WEEK. WILL LEAVE FORECAST AS IS BUT NOT
SURE IF 80F WILL BE REACHED GIVEN CLOUD COVER. WILL BE CLOSE
ENOUGH THOUGH. TOMORROW SHOULD BE WARMER IN THE LOW 80S AS 850MB
TEMPS RISE TO AROUND 17-18C GIVEN SW/W FLOW. LOTS OF QUESTIONS
REGARDING THE TIMING OF NEXT COLD FRONT SO MAIN FORECAST UPDATE IN
THE AFTERNOON WILL BE FOR FRONTAL TIMING. END OF WEEK STILL LOOKS
REALLY COLD. NO FORECAST UPDATE ISSUED AT THIS TIME.

[dhweather]

Condensed version: It's going to get cold, and there's a chance of some kind of precip. We don't know what type yet, so hang on.





WWUS84 KFWD 022100
SPSFWD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
300 PM CST MON DEC 2 2013

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-031100-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-
NAVARRO-FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-
LIMESTONE-LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
300 PM CST MON DEC 2 2013

...WINTER STORM OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY
A MUCH STRONGER ARCTIC FRONT ON THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL
LIKELY BE ONGOING AS TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION WOULD BEGIN AS RAIN ON THURSDAY...THEN
POTENTIALLY TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. ICE WOULD INITIALLY ACCUMULATE ON ELEVATED SURFACES...SUCH
AS BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES...BUT MAIN ROAD SURFACES COULD ALSO
BECOME ICY AS THE EVENT PROGRESSES. IF THE COLD AIR IS
SUFFICIENTLY DEEP...SOME SLEET MAY ALSO OCCUR BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
AT THIS TIME...THE PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN IS ALONG AND NORTHWEST
OF A LINE FROM GOLDTHWAITE...TO WAXAHACHIE...TO SULPHUR SPRINGS.
THIS INCLUDES THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX.

A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. BUT TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING
AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHEN ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION MAY OCCUR.

THESE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS ARE STILL DAYS AWAY...AND THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVENTUAL THERMAL PROFILES AND
THE RESULTING PRECIPITATION TYPES AND IMPACTS. EVEN SO...
RESIDENTS SHOULD STILL PREPARE FOR POTENTIAL DISRUPTIONS TO TRAVEL
ON FRIDAY...WHICH MAY LINGER THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST...AND LOOK FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES
ON OUR WEBSITE...

WEATHER.GOV/FORTWORTH


$$

25

[CaptinCrunch]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
324 PM CST MON DEC 2 2013

.DISCUSSION...
THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY ON...
WHICH INCLUDES FRONTAL TIMING...TIMING OF PRECIPITATION EVENTS AND
DURATION AND AMOUNTS OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION. MOSTLY...THIS FORECAST
IS BASED ON THE GFS SOLUTIONS OF THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS...BUT DID
BIAS SOME PARAMETERS TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTIONS OF TODAY AND
YESTERDAY MORNING.

FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE NICE THIS EVENING
BUT DO THINK A SECOND ROUND OF FOG AND CLOUDS WILL OCCUR ALONG
PARTS OF THE RED RIVER AND AREAS EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR
BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH MID MORNING TUESDAY.
ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF...TUESDAY WILL BE VERY NICE WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S TO LOWER 80S AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
BE MILD AND HUMID...AND SOME PATCHY FOG REMAINS POSSIBLE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.

ON WEDNESDAY WE WILL SEE THE BEGINNING OF A BIG CHANGE FOR MUCH OF
THE CWA AS ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES IN THE NORTHWEST
COUNTIES AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTH OF I-20 AND SLOW DOWN AS SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS NEW
MEXICO AND MUCH OF WEST TEXAS INHIBIT THE FORWARD PROGRESS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID
50S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. PRESSURE RISES NORTH OF THE FRONT RETURN IN EARNEST LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY AND THE FRONT ALONG WITH A SECOND ARCTIC FRONT
PLOWS THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT... AND LIGHT RAIN/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRANSVERSES THE REGION AND
INTERACTS WITH WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ABOVE THE ELEVATED FRONT.

NOW FOR THE PERIOD OF UNCERTAINTY...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. SOME THINGS ARE A GIVEN: 1) THERE WILL BE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES (ESPECIALLY AT NIGHTTIME) SPREADING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CWA. 2) THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN AND/OR SLEET
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. 3) FORECAST AMOUNTS OF ICE/SLEET WILL BE
ENOUGH TO CAUSE TRAVEL PROBLEMS. 4) SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO A
LACK OF SATURATION WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.

OUR MAIN CONCERN IS THE UNCERTAINTY OF WHETHER: (1) LIFT WILL BE
STRONGER THAN FORECAST AND PUSH ICE AMOUNTS INTO THE WARNING
CATEGORY. (2) MOISTURE ABOVE THE FRONT WILL INCREASE INTO THE
DENDRITIC FORMATION ZONE AND PRODUCES SNOW OVER THE NORTHWEST
COUNTIES. (3) FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET WILL BE MORE DOMINATE DURING
THE PERIOD.

CURRENT THINKING IS FOR FREEZING RAIN TO DOMINATE ON THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE NORTHWEST 1/2 CWA. A
LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL
OCCUR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...AND LIGHT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. WE ARE ISSUING A WINTER STORM OUTLOOK
THIS AFTERNOON FOR THESE EVENTS.

[somethingfunny]

I was just going to post that excellent little synopsis - particularly the three paragraphs beginning with NOW FOR THE PERIOD OF UNCERTAINTY

[natlib]

From the San Angelo NWS:

...ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTER WEATHER FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...

IMPACTS

* FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT.

* COLD TEMPERATURES CAN CAUSE HARM TO UNPROTECTED
PIPES...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK.


ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX OF SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN TO MUCH OF THE AREA. THE WINTRY MIX MAY BEGIN AS
EARLY AS THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY AND WILL SPREAD
SOUTH DURING THE DAY...REACHING THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR BY
FRIDAY MORNING. THE WINTRY MIX WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW
TO MID 30S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS JUST BEGINNING
TO DEVELOP...SO STAYED TUNED TO THE FORECAST FOR FURTHER UPDATES
AS THE SITUATION BECOMES MORE CERTAIN.

[Portastorm]

I got a rock!



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EWX seems nonplussed by this weekend's weather to come.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
CONTINUED MOIST ADVECTION AND AN INCREASE IN THE STRENGTH OF THE
UPPER JET WILL ADD TO CLOUDS ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS
THE COLD POLAR TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU TO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...THE BUILDUP OF ARCTIC AIR IN THE LOWER
LEVELS WILL BEGIN A SURGE OF MUCH COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD INTO TEXAS.
THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO OUR REGION THURSDAY
AS READINGS STEADILY FALL OVER THE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR. HIGHS WILL
ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE LOW 50S OVER THE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR WITH A
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OVERRUNNING THE COLD AIR AS IT MOVES SOUTH.
THE COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE ITS PLUNGE INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS OVERRUNNING LIGHT RAIN BECOMES MORE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN
TO BE FELT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...EARLY FRIDAY MORNING OVER FAR
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE HILL COUNTRY. CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
MAINLY LIGHT RAIN FRIDAY WITH GULF OVERRUN.SUBFREEZING
TEMPERATURES MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OVER THE FAR
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE HILL COUNTRY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY WITH LOWERING RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST. CONTINUED
BUILD OF COLD DRY RIDGE SOUTH OVER REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN
CHANCES CONFINED TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE
MAY TRACK NORTHEAST SATURDAY INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
OVER EASTERN SECTIONS. ANOTHER BOUT OF FREEZING RAIN MAY OCCUR
SATURDAY MORNING OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AS TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW
FREEZING. DECREASING CHANCES OF RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS
DRIER WESTERLIES ALOFT SWEEP EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A BIT
SUNDAY...BUT CLEARING SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT MAY PRODUCE A HARD FREEZE
OVER MUCH OF THE HILL COUNTRY BY DAWN MONDAY.

[weatherdude1108]

You just beat me to the punch Porta. I looked above and saw your post. Gotta be quick around here!

[somethingfunny]

bahahaha

[Rgv20]

https://twitter.com/AlexJLamers/status/407619526575259648

A little bit off topic but it looks like Ryan Maue from weatherbell just said its okay to post ECMWF graphics from his site as long as there the Anomalies Map..

[Tireman4]

Afternoon HGX AFD:

AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
352 PM CST MON DEC 2 2013

.DISCUSSION...
SW FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS SUPPORTED TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S
FOR MOST AREAS. GULF MOISTURE HAS ALSO INCREASED ALONG THE COAST
BASICALLY SOUTH OF I-10 WHERE DEWPOINT TEMPS ARE IN THE LOW 60S.
AREAS FROM COLLEGE STATION TO HUNTSVILLE HAVE HAD DEWPOINT TEMPS
MIX OUT DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH RECOVERY
IN MOISTURE OVERNIGHT THAT PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN. THE
MAIN ISSUE IS IF WINDS STAY AROUND 5KTS FROM THE SOUTH.

MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE WED/THUR SO POSSIBLE TO HAVE FOG
EACH OF THOSE NIGHTS DEPENDING ON WINDS. TEMPS TOMORROW SHOULD BE
BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. TEMPS AT 850MB WARM TO AROUND
17-18C TOMORROW SO THINK LOW 80S LOOKS REASONABLE. RECORD HIGH
TEMP AT KIAH IS 85 AND 86 AT KCLL. DO NOT THINK IT WILL GET THAT
WARM. WILL KEEP SOME 20 POPS FOR A FEW SHOWERS ON WED BUT REALLY
DO NOT EXPECT THERE TO BE MUCH ACTIVITY.

DRASTIC TEMPERATURE CHANGES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
BUT WILL OCCUR SLOWLY. THE 12Z MODELS WERE IN MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE FRONTAL PUSH. CANADIAN COLD FRONT WORKS INTO TX
ON WED AND STALLS NORTH OF THE AREA. THE NAM/ECMWF HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH A SLOWER PUSH THAN THE GFS BUT THE 12Z GFS IS NOW
SHOWING VERY SIMILAR TIMING. THIS BRINGS THE FRONT INTO KCLL AREA
AROUND 18Z THEN HOUSTON METRO AROUND 00Z FRI JUST IN TIME FOR RUSH
HOUR. BASED OFF MODEL SOUNDINGS THINK THERE COULD BE A FEW STORMS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT INSTABILITY STILL RATHER LIMITED
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. OVERALL
JUST DO NOT SEE A LOT OF STORM ORGANIZATION WITH LIMITED
INSTABILITY. MAIN THREATS IF ANYTHING WILL BE SOME GUSTY WINDS AND
PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL IN STRONG STORMS BUT A SMALL PROBABILITY.
AS SUCH POPS ARE HELD AROUND 30-50 PERCENT ON THUR.

FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY SLOW MOVING AND ONLY BARELY PUSHING
OFF THE COST BY FRI MORNING. FRONT LOOKS TO HOLD PARALLEL TO MAIN
UPPER LEVEL FLOW GOING INTO FRI. COLD FRONT AT 850MB ONLY SLIGHTLY
PUSHES INTO THE AREA BUT OVERALL LOOKING AT A SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS
BELOW 850MB. FRONT WILL GET A BETTER PUSH DURING THIS TIME AS
RIGHT ENTRANCE TO JET APPROACHES WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
DIVERGENCE ALOFT SHOULD BE STRONG AND THINK FRI MORNING BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN AT THIS TIME. FOR NOW 60 POPS LOOK ON TRACK BUT
COULD GO HIGHER NOW THAT MODELS ARE STARTING TO BE IN MORE
AGREEMENT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST RAIN PRECIP TYPE MAINLY AS
COLDER SUB-FREEZING AIR WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA.

SATURDAY ANOTHER JET STREAK MOVES BY WITH AGAIN RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION FAVORABLE FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT. ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS AT
290K HAS LIFT INCREASING OVER THE FRONTAL SURFACE. MODELS
SOUNDINGS SHOW A WELL PRONOUNCED WARM NOSE THROUGH A DEEP LAYER
ABOVE THE FRONT. THERE MAY BE A HINT OF A SUB-FREEZING LAYER JUST
OFF THE SURFACE FOR COLLEGE STATION TO CROCKETT ON SATURDAY BUT
DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE ENOUGH FOR FROZEN PRECIP. GIVEN THE SET UP
WILL KEEP WITH GENERALLY 30-40 POPS AS THERE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH WITH A MUCH DEEPER/COLDER AIRMASS BEHIND IT. EXPECT RAIN
CHANCES TO END SUN NIGHT PERHAPS EARLIER. OVERALL IT LOOKS LIKE A
COLD WET WEEKEND.


http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[Kelarie]

From Shreveport NWS...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
313 PM CST MON DEC 2 2013

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EARLY IN THE EVENING TO ALLOW
TEMPS TO FALL TO SATURATION WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EXPECTED BY
DAYBREAK ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

SOUTHERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS ALLOWING FOR
MILD CONDITIONS WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS CLIMBING TO AROUND 70
AND LOWS IN THE 50S.

RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS AN ARCTIC AIRMASS PUSHES
SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. A COLD OVERRUNNING RAIN
PATTERN TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ONLY FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION.
RAIN TO END FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY EVENING AS COLD AIR
CONTINUES TO PLUNGE SOUTH. LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 20S. SHOULD SEE ALL RAINFALL OUT OF THESE AREAS BEFORE
TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING. THEREFORE...NOT EXPECTING A
WINTER WEATHER THREAT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO ADVECT
MOISTURE BACK ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY EVENING ALLOWING FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 30
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...WITH HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES ELSEWHERE.

[sooner101]

So are we expecting just cold temps and not much precip?

[gboudx]

So are we expecting just cold temps and not much precip?

Since you're in Carrollton, read the AFD CaptinCrunch posted above from the DFW NWS. For the interesting part start with, "NOW FOR THE PERIOD OF UNCERTAINTY...."

[TrekkerCC]

Wow, the Surface High Pressure in Canada is almost 1060mb. It's incredible the cold that is building up and about to head south. The models are under-initializing (*cough* GFS) the strength of the surface high.




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[TeamPlayersBlue]

The GFS was under initializing it BIG TIME this morning. I havent looked at the 18Z though. Not sure how much of a difference that will make.

[TrekkerCC]

The GFS was under initializing it BIG TIME this morning. I havent looked at the 18Z though. Not sure how much of a difference that will make.

I think you are right that will make little to no difference in the grand scheme of things. Maybe a small extra push for the cold air surging south, but otherwise, no real difference. I do like seeing these arctic highs build up (especially the late winter season ones where the highs can push 1060mb to 1070mb in Canada).

[South Texas Storms]

A few nights ago I went through the Storm2K winter threads from 2009-2011. Reading through those made me remember how excited I get for snow! Central Texas didn't get much, if any, wintry precipitation the past 2 years. I really hope a large part of Texas gets some snow this winter!