Texas Winter 2013-2014

[Tireman4]

The current GFS projection is nowhere near the freezes of 1983 or 1989 in terms of cold air or duration, but it's way too cold for me. I'm sure Portastorm had something to do with that run...

Ha ha ha. You are going freeze your chain off. LOL. Oh Dark Lord of Summer, you might want to get to Cancun for the next week.

[Portastorm]

The current GFS projection is nowhere near the freezes of 1983 or 1989 in terms of cold air or duration, but it's way too cold for me. I'm sure Portastorm had something to do with that run...

No sir, I did not! MY perfect GFS run would have cold like that and a persistent trough to our west/southwest pushing occasional shortwaves across the state. Look, I'm willing to give you a variable pattern during these months so that you do get a few days of biking in before the next Arctic blast hits.

But back to the 12z GFS op run ... yes, shame on me for getting too excited and dropping references to 83 and 89, especially after I chided some folks for doing that yesterday. I should have looked at the 2m temps a little more closely. You are correct sir in saying that the 12z GFS run does not show anything like 83/89. Mea culpa. Still ... it does shows a very significant freeze for Texas of *some* duration.

[ndale]

The current GFS projection is nowhere near the freezes of 1983 or 1989 in terms of cold air or duration, but it's way too cold for me. I'm sure Portastorm had something to do with that run...

If I am reading your meteogram right the lowest temp here in Austin would be around 19, in 1983 it was around 10.

[somethingfunny]

I didn't see this get posted yet. This is yesterday's Euro and it's in Fahrenheit...

[dhweather]

I don't know where this came from, but it sure looks a lot like yesterday.

[somethingfunny]

consistency! Though, it backs off quite a bit on the expanse of sub-zero cold.

Of course, it is the Euro. That hasn't been a slam dunk this year by a long shot =P

[richtrav]

No, despite what you may think, the PWC did not draw up the maps for the 12z GFS at and beyond 216 hours ... but still ... oh my.

Took a quick peek at the 12zGFS and oh my....Ice age coming?

Start packing wxman57!! lol

If that GFS run were to verify ... we are talking 1983/1989 type cold. It would be devastating for you and your area, rgv.

I only see 30F at 300 hours out down here on the 12z GFS. But it does have extreme cold out west: Seattle at -4 (their all time low is 0) and Phoenix at 21 are outrageous numbers. Expect that to moderate in coming runs.

[Texas Snowman]

@BigJoeBastardi: Astoundingly cold, ugly run of the ECWMF coming in. Not since Dec 1977,1989 have I seen such early season mayhem.

@BigJoeBastardi: ECMWF out of control. Has 1000-500 mb 486 thk on ND border at 192 hour. Hard to believe this early in season

[Portastorm]

I only see 30F at 300 hours out down here on the 12z GFS. But it does have extreme cold out west: Seattle at -4 (their all time low is 0) and Phoenix at 21 are outrageous numbers. Expect that to moderate in coming runs.

I'm sorry but where is "down here?" Your profile says your location is "South Texas" and that's a bit large to narrow down.

[somethingfunny]

I only see 30F at 300 hours out down here on the 12z GFS. But it does have extreme cold out west: Seattle at -4 (their all time low is 0) and Phoenix at 21 are outrageous numbers. Expect that to moderate in coming runs.

I'm sorry but where is "down here?" Your profile says your location is "South Texas" and that's a big large to narrow down.

My uncle grew up in Kingsville. He thought San Antonio was "North Texas"
I can't imagine anything being farther south than I-10.

[wxman57]

12Z Euro is in. I'm plotting 2m temps at 3hr increments. It has a low around 26-27 in Dallas Saturday with a high around 33-34 deg. Low on Sunday near 33 with a high in the upper 40s. That's THIS coming Sat/Sun. The Euro only goes out 10 days so it doesn't extend to next week's front.

[Portastorm]

12Z Euro is in. I'm plotting 2m temps at 3hr increments. It has a low around 26-27 in Dallas Saturday with a high around 33-34 deg. Low on Sunday near 33 with a high in the upper 40s. That's THIS coming Sat/Sun. The Euro only goes out 10 days so it doesn't extend to next week's front.

I don't have the luxury of breaking down King Euro's latest offering as you do, but from my low-rez version I do see it looks a little warmer. Who knows, perhaps it won't end up quite as cold as what the models were suggesting a day or two ago. The trend for the GFS and Euro has been to warm it up a bit. Don't get me wrong, it's still going to be darn cold but perhaps not as cold as we thought.

Anyhow, as you have said wxman57, we'll need to wait a day or two further to see how the models handle the airmass to our north.

[richtrav]

I only see 30F at 300 hours out down here on the 12z GFS. But it does have extreme cold out west: Seattle at -4 (their all time low is 0) and Phoenix at 21 are outrageous numbers. Expect that to moderate in coming runs.

I'm sorry but where is "down here?" Your profile says your location is "South Texas" and that's a bit large to narrow down.

Sorry, that was for Harlingen

[wxman57]

The Euro still has about 1/2" snow in Austin and an inch in Dallas/Ft. Worth this weekend. Heavier snow is NE of Dallas across Arkansas and southern Missouri. It doesn't penetrate into northern LA much at all.

[stormlover2013]

WXMAN what about LUFKIN, I have a basketball tourney this weekend there, and we are coming from beaumont, will the roads be messy you think?

[orangeblood]

Unbelievable how far apart the GFS and Euro are for this weekends temperature profiles. Like usual, they are having a heck of a time trying to resolve surface features as well as how much low level cold air to erode. As has been repeated time and time again on this board, the models almost always underestimate these type air masses at the lower levels. Not buying the modification shown by the Euro considering the origin of this air mass (Siberia) and the fresh snowpack across the northern tier states.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Yep, Euro missing the boat 5-10 degrees on this one.

[PTrackerLA]

JB posted that the 12z Euro is showing 0 degrees entering Arkansas at 216 hours. What is to stop this from continuing southward? I just don't see very cold air for the I-10 corridor right now.

[orangeblood]

JB posted that the 12z Euro is showing 0 degrees entering Arkansas at 216 hours. What is to stop this from continuing southward? I just don't see very cold air for the I-10 corridor right now.

Upper Level support isn't quite right for a full plunge into the gulf at this time, the cold HP's are moving off to the east instead of towards the gulf over time

[weatherguy425]

JB posted that the 12z Euro is showing 0 degrees entering Arkansas at 216 hours. What is to stop this from continuing southward? I just don't see very cold air for the I-10 corridor right now.

Upper Level support isn't quite right for a full plunge into the gulf at this time, the cold HP's are moving off to the east instead of towards the gulf over time

And, those low temperatures are definitely 'fresh snow-pack induced.'