Brand New and Long Isabel Forecast

#1 Postby **MWatkins** » Thu Sep 11, 2003 8:00 pm

Enjoy...threw everything but the kitchen sink at this one.

Very long winded tonight...but I suppose given what's going on it's worth it.

http://www.tropicalupdate.com/2003-TC13.htm

Comments...as always...are welcome.

MW

Rainband · #2 Postby **Rainband** » Thu Sep 11, 2003 8:04 pm

Excellent discussion! :wink:

Thanks

Hope she curves out to sea!!

#3 Postby **Ground_Zero_92** » Thu Sep 11, 2003 8:13 pm

Thanks Mike, very informative and thorough forecast. I hope Isabel does not effect anyone.

Aquawind · #4 Postby **Aquawind** » Thu Sep 11, 2003 8:16 pm

Great Forecast Details.. I am axiously waiting for the models with the Recon data. Thanks for the Forecast.

stormernie · #5 Postby **stormernie** » Thu Sep 11, 2003 8:20 pm

Great work Mike, I think like you said it will become clearer once the atmosphere sample is taken,

Also, I just posted a thread in which the slight southward component has continued for at least the last 1.5 hrs. What do you think...

#6 Postby **HeatherAKC** » Thu Sep 11, 2003 8:23 pm

This happened to me the other night. I always get the previous nights forecast! I got Wed. night when I clicked your link. What's up with that?

Derek Ortt · #7 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Thu Sep 11, 2003 8:25 pm

The synoptic surveillance flight was delayed by another day. Therefore, it will not be until the 0Z run on Sunday before we get any model runs with the G-IV data included

#8 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Sep 11, 2003 8:27 pm

Derek any reason for the delay?

Derek Ortt · #9 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Thu Sep 11, 2003 8:29 pm

G-IV can only fly 4 consecutive days. Therefore, with the threat not being until later, the flights have to be pushed back day by day so that they are able to fly when needed

#10 Postby **MWatkins** » Thu Sep 11, 2003 8:31 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:The synoptic surveillance flight was delayed by another day. Therefore, it will not be until the 0Z run on Sunday before we get any model runs with the G-IV data included

Yep...they didn't explicitly note they had cancelled the 0913 00Z mission...but it's not in the plan today. Oh well. Guess I'll have to update/revise that discussion. I guess the GFS will be on the "randomize" setting for another 7 runs.

MW

#11 Postby **MWatkins** » Thu Sep 11, 2003 8:35 pm

Heather...try pushing the f5 key when you load the discussion to reload the newest discussion. If that doesn't work you can also try this link:

http://www.tropicalupdate.com/2003091200z-TC13.htm

It's the archive page.

MW

This happened to me the other night. I always get the previous nights forecast! I got Wed. night when I clicked your link. What's up with that?
_________________
Peace,
Heather

#12 Postby **MWatkins** » Thu Sep 11, 2003 8:38 pm

stormernie wrote:Great work Mike, I think like you said it will become clearer once the atmosphere sample is taken,

Also, I just posted a thread in which the slight southward component has continued for at least the last 1.5 hrs. What do you think...

Hey Ernie...it sure looks that way...but it could be one of those long wobbles.

Also looks like the eye is starting to break down just a smidge on the south side...

MW

BEER980 · #13 Postby **BEER980** » Thu Sep 11, 2003 8:39 pm

I always look forward to your 11 pm peep.

Brand New and Long Isabel Forecast

Brand New and Long Isabel Forecast

UGH!

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