Texas Fall 2013

[Tireman4]

any concern the ull might bring us some snow?

If you put your approximate location in your profile then we could tell what city you're in and answer your question.

I live in "No Snow For Me" Houston. LOL

[South Texas Storms]

Even though not much wintry precip. fell across our area, I'm still very thankful for all of the rain that this system has brought us. I've gotten over 4 inches of rain here in College Station! I really hope this wet weather pattern continues all throughout winter!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Pretty sure i heard thunder while i was in the shower....


Also some interesting 'light' echos popping up NW of Austin.

[srainhoutx]

Thunder and lightning in NW Harris County as moderate rains fall and temps slowly have dropped to 41F. The Gulf Low is deepening offshore as the cold core low is nearing the Permian Basin.

[gpsnowman]

The cloud deck over DFW sure looks like it could drop some precip. Just need the proper lift. Thick low clouds.

[jerryh421]

So abc13 is still sticking with the idea that their is a chance for wintry mix just north of Houston if moisture is still around in the morning. Are any of the models showing moisture left for this to happen?

[TeamPlayersBlue]

So abc13 is still sticking with the idea that their is a chance for wintry mix just north of Houston if moisture is still around in the morning. Are any of the models showing moisture left for this to happen?

As of now its going to be very close.


It is dumping here. All out rain right now. Temp down to 42.8F

[vbhoutex]

Thunder and lightning in NW Harris County as moderate rains fall and temps slowly have dropped to 41F. The Gulf Low is deepening offshore as the cold core low is nearing the Permian Basin.

Yep we had the thunder and lightning about 15 minutes ago and it has been pouring again. Becoming a little concerned with the timing between the ULL and the coastal low and moisture for tomorrow am. It may be a close call, especially for the areas just North of Houston proper. Who knows, we could see a few flakes mix in with the rain. Currently 39f and raining at the house and we know the temp isn't going to go up.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

:Looks like another band of rain is forming near SA. This rain started out small like that one. Where is the low?

[srainhoutx]

:Looks like another band of rain is forming near SA. This rain started out small like that one. Where is the low?

It is dropping SSE from the Panhandle toward and just W of San Angelo. It should pass near San Antonio/Austin late tonight and over Houston Metro early tomorrow.

[Wntrwthrguy]

I have been reading this message board during the past few winters almost daily just to get insight I feel I can't find anywhere else. Reading everyone discuss their take on current and future winter weather events or model readings has become a big hobby of mine.

With that said, I'm hearing chances of snow in north Austin tonight are slim to none. Anyone have a timeframe in which this "might" occur? Is there something that one should look for on radar that would show one way or the other that the chances are getting better or worse?

[Ntxw]

Folks the EPO is still negative. Yet another tank is on the way some 2 to 4 standard deviations below normal. If it indeed reaches 3 or 4 SD's below, we will be talking teens and single digits for some in a few weeks. The AO is the only thing fighting an all out deep freeze. We have seen what the EPO can do this month, it dipped 2SD's below and it is only November. That was worthy of a January cold spell for how long it lasted. I will check back in a week for the latest EPO value and if it is indeed such low values the arctic hounds will howl.

The CPC Superensemble analogs should speak for itself

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Glad some of you guys over in Texas are getting some much needed rains. But sorry for y'all who were teased with winter storm warnings and got nothing. Looks like this is going to be a major bust for us in se LA as well, rain wise. Only a trace of rain so far for the day and we were forecast to get 2-3 in. Just don't see how the models failed so miserably not even 24 hr's out. The gulf low didn't even come close to us at all with even light rains.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

The super cold looks a little bit west. If could shift it east a bit over the next few days...

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Another batch of moisture.... on its way.

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southplains_loop.php

[gboudx]

Glad some of you guys over in Texas are getting some much needed rains. But sorry for y'all who were teased with winter storm warnings and got nothing. Looks like this is going to be a major bust for us in se LA as well, rain wise. Only a trace of rain so far for the day and we were forecast to get 2-3 in. Just don't see how the models failed so miserably not even 24 hr's out. The gulf low didn't even come close to us at all with even light rains.

Looks like the rain is west of you and heading that way. My parents are driving up from Lafitte tomorrow and are expecting to drive through lots of rain.

[orangeblood]

To continue Ntxw's long range discussion.....the GFS and European Ensemble members are in remarkable agreement establishing cross polar flow in around 7-8 days. The cross polar flow and dropping low heights across the western US should build up massive High Pressure over Western Canada in the 7-10. These big HP's, of Siberian origin, should begin to overwhelm the plains and eventually press down into the southern plains. Even if predominately westerly flow is across the southern plains, the massive HP's that are continually reinforced by the cross polar flow should press underneath the westerly flow. Things could really get interesting once the cold air gets established and shortwaves begin to ride up and over the dense cold airmass, a lot of potential with this pattern. Just look at the similarity between the two ensembles going out to even 8-10 days.

European Ensemble Mean day 9



GFS Ensemble Mean day 9




The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[Ntxw]

To continue Ntxw's long range discussion.....the GFS and European Ensemble members are in remarkable agreement establishing cross polar flow in around 7-8 days. The cross polar flow and dropping low heights across the western US should build up massive High Pressure over Western Canada in the 7-10. These big HP's, of Siberian origin, should begin to overwhelm the plains and eventually press down into the southern plains. Even if predominately westerly flow is across the southern plains, the massive HP's that are continually reinforced by the cross polar flow should press underneath the westerly flow. Things could really get interesting once the cold air gets established and shortwaves begin to ride up and over the dense cold airmass, a lot of potential with this pattern. Just look at the similarity between the two ensembles going out to even 8-10 days.

You touched base on this earlier. I was following the charts and flow and truly this is cross polar flow 100%. High pressure will be of Siberian origin and not a hybrid of Alaskan/Canadian origin. Not only is the EPO negative as will the WPO. It is a very large bridge between Asia and North America. It will funnel en masse into our continent. The ridge is currently sitting above Japan and will progress east and strengthen as it moves over the very high anomalous warm waters of the north Pacific as it continues to warm into the gulf of Alaska.

[somethingfunny]

How does this projected pattern compare to some of the great December freezes of the past?

[Texas Snowman]

How does this projected pattern compare to some of the great December freezes of the past?

I think Bastardi mentioned that this set up analogs well with December 1983.

If memory serves correct, that was a series of artic fronts that kept pouring cold air into the Lower 48. It wasn't a single huge high as I remember the December 1989 freeze being.