Texas Fall 2013
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Re: Texas Fall 2013
gpsnowman wrote:iorange55 wrote:Can confirm that it is indeed freezing rain that is falling. The backyard grill has some ice on it now for the first time today.
Same here in Grand Prairie, iorange. Felt it on my metal table and my 12 pack of Miller I am keeping outside because our fridge is packed.
Yeah, not too far away from you in Cedar Hill. Looks like it has stopped at the moment, but we might get clipped by the northern edge of precip that is moving south of us.
I really hope whatever falls after midnight is not freezing rain.
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SouthernMet
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Re: Texas Fall 2013
downsouthman1 wrote:I cannot stress enough the instability that exists in the atmosphere. You can see it when you look at San Angelo radar. As that general area moves on in, it will be enhanced by the ULL & the developing surface low/trough. It should merge with a developing band of precip somewhere over central Texas overnight towards 6AM. The radar should start lighting up like a christmas tree before too long.
This.
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Nothing that SouthernMet posts, is an official forecast,nor does it reflect views of STORM2K.. SouthernMet is just adding to the great discussions on STORM2K.. Refer to NWS for official forecasts.
Re: Texas Fall 2013
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
615 PM CST SUN NOV 24 2013
.AVIATION...
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS ALL NORTH TEXAS
TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OF RAIN
OVER WACO. IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE PRIMARY BATCH OF PRECIP WILL
COME THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. 00Z FWD SOUNDING DATA IS
SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT WARM NOSE ABOVE 800 MB AND THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN A DECREASE IN SLEET POTENTIAL. OF COURSE...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CRITICAL IN FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL. THE MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT OVERNIGHT PRECIP WILL MOSTLY FALL AS RAIN
WITH BRIEF FREEZING RAIN TOWARD SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY AT AFW AND FTW.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING MID TO LATE MORNING MONDAY
AND ANY PRECIP THAT FALLS SHOULD BE RAIN.
http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/soundin ... STNM=72249
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
615 PM CST SUN NOV 24 2013
.AVIATION...
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS ALL NORTH TEXAS
TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OF RAIN
OVER WACO. IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE PRIMARY BATCH OF PRECIP WILL
COME THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. 00Z FWD SOUNDING DATA IS
SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT WARM NOSE ABOVE 800 MB AND THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN A DECREASE IN SLEET POTENTIAL. OF COURSE...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CRITICAL IN FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL. THE MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT OVERNIGHT PRECIP WILL MOSTLY FALL AS RAIN
WITH BRIEF FREEZING RAIN TOWARD SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY AT AFW AND FTW.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING MID TO LATE MORNING MONDAY
AND ANY PRECIP THAT FALLS SHOULD BE RAIN.
http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/soundin ... STNM=72249
Last edited by katheria on Sun Nov 24, 2013 8:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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just a guess.......take everything i say with a grain of salt.......check your local NWS for forecast information
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downsouthman1
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Re: Texas Fall 2013
Surprised they would go that direction before the main event even forms.katheria wrote:AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
615 PM CST SUN NOV 24 2013
.AVIATION...
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS ALL NORTH TEXAS
TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OF RAIN
OVER WACO. IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE PRIMARY BATCH OF PRECIP WILL
COME THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. 00Z FWD SOUNDING DATA IS
SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT WARM NOSE ABOVE 800 MB AND THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN A DECREASE IN SLEET POTENTIAL. OF COURSE...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CRITICAL IN FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL. THE MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT OVERNIGHT PRECIP WILL MOSTLY FALL AS RAIN
WITH BRIEF FREEZING RAIN TOWARD SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY AT AFW AND FTW.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING MID TO LATE MORNING MONDAY
AND ANY PRECIP THAT FALLS SHOULD BE RAIN.
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Not a professional MET! My posts are merely speculation.
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Texas Snowman
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Re: Texas Fall 2013
Bust alert! Lucy is about to fall to the ground guffawing.
@CBS11Larry: I wouldn't be surprised if Winter Storm Warning gets downgraded to a Winter Weather Advisory with latest information I'm seeing. #txwx
@CBS11Larry: I wouldn't be surprised if Winter Storm Warning gets downgraded to a Winter Weather Advisory with latest information I'm seeing. #txwx
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The above post and any post by Texas Snowman is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Re: Texas Fall 2013
I am still worried and have always been worried about the freezing rain potential with this event. Just the little bit we got a few minutes ago put a little glaze on the trees.
If the system that comes in after midnight is all freezing rain, it's going to be miserable in the morning. I don't see how (at least in areas that are already at freezing) it would be just rain over night. It seems like, if anything, the temperature would drop a couple of degrees overnight when the heavier precip comes in.
We'll just have to wait and see. I certainly hope this is a "bust" if it's just going to be freezing rain.
If the system that comes in after midnight is all freezing rain, it's going to be miserable in the morning. I don't see how (at least in areas that are already at freezing) it would be just rain over night. It seems like, if anything, the temperature would drop a couple of degrees overnight when the heavier precip comes in.
We'll just have to wait and see. I certainly hope this is a "bust" if it's just going to be freezing rain.
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gboudx
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Re:
sooner101 wrote:So I guess we can call this one a bust? When is our next chance at a winter storm?
If by "bust" you mean no sleet or snow, then let's just wait and see. But this was no bust as I see it. It's late November and we'll have had highs in the 30s for about 4 days straight before it's over. The rain is nice too. Our lakes still need a ton of it.
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Texas Snowman
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Sorry kids. Looks like school tomorrow. More from local TV mets:
@CBS11Larry: My thinking is temps may not get cold enough to create icing. Temps likely between 32 and 36 degrees. RT @DFWStormwatch: #txwx
@RickMitchellWX: If you'll be driving in the AM rush in DFW tomorrow, temps may stay slightly above frzg, meaning the roads will mainly be wet. #dfwwx
@wfaaweather: Looks like the Winter Storm Warning will be downgraded.
Stay tuned!
@CBS11Larry: My thinking is temps may not get cold enough to create icing. Temps likely between 32 and 36 degrees. RT @DFWStormwatch: #txwx
@RickMitchellWX: If you'll be driving in the AM rush in DFW tomorrow, temps may stay slightly above frzg, meaning the roads will mainly be wet. #dfwwx
@wfaaweather: Looks like the Winter Storm Warning will be downgraded.
Stay tuned!
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The above post and any post by Texas Snowman is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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Texas Snowman
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Most are, but not all.
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The above post and any post by Texas Snowman is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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downsouthman1
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Why is San Angelo radar being ignored? & WV loops, which clearly show moisture pooling ahead of the west Texas dry slot? Exactly the same thing that would happen during a developing line of thunderstorms in the spring.
Last edited by downsouthman1 on Sun Nov 24, 2013 8:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Not a professional MET! My posts are merely speculation.
Re: Texas Fall 2013
at least i got to see a little sleet earlier today...
been awhile since i have seen that in a nov
been awhile since i have seen that in a nov
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just a guess.......take everything i say with a grain of salt.......check your local NWS for forecast information
Oh well. This was good practice for a better winter event in the future. As Iorange said, the temps might be cold enough for some icy problems tomorrow. I just want a good snow. Freezing rain is awful. December looks good from what I hear and read on this thread. And yes, this cold has been awesome and it is not over. Turkey day will be chilly like it should be. Food, family, football(three NFL games now), and beer. Did I mention I want December snow? 
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TeamPlayersBlue
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You guys are cracking me up, relax! We are in like the 3rd inning of this event. Everybody settle down! Lol
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Texas Snowman
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For what it's worth, if this does fail to materialize into anything significant overnight, then IMO, yes it's an official bust.
We were under Winter Storm Watches and Warnings. And more than 20 pages of the "Texas Fall" thread have been dedicated to this event.
And now there may be nothing more than a little ice in the trees or on vehicle windows to talk about in the morning.
The cold weather has been nice though.
We were under Winter Storm Watches and Warnings. And more than 20 pages of the "Texas Fall" thread have been dedicated to this event.
And now there may be nothing more than a little ice in the trees or on vehicle windows to talk about in the morning.
The cold weather has been nice though.
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The above post and any post by Texas Snowman is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Re: Texas Fall 2013
i agree
still a good start to the season also
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just a guess.......take everything i say with a grain of salt.......check your local NWS for forecast information
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