Texas Fall 2013

[Tireman4]

HGX AFD...

000
FXUS64 KHGX 242117
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
317 PM CST SUN NOV 24 2013

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK S/WV MOVING ACROSS THE CWA WAS BRINGING A SWATH OF LIGHT
RAIN ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTN. THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK IN THE
PRECIP THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE S/WV. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL OVER THE 4 CORNERS WILL MOVE EAST LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
AND APPROACH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE S-SE
TOWARD SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. LIFT ON THE EAST SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL INCREASE AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT.
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL ALSO INCREASE AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
NEARS. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW SATURATION BEGINNING IN EARNEST BETWEEN
09-12Z MON MORNING. THE SUB CLOUD LAYER WILL INITIALLY BE VERY DRY
AND AS THE PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO FALL...SFC TEMPS WILL FALL TO
BETWEEN 32-36 DEGREES NORTH AND 34 TO 40 DEGREES SOUTH. THERE IS A
SMALL WINDOW...MAINLY BETWEEN 4 AM AND 10 AM WHERE SOME THE PRECIP
NORTH OF A CALDWELL TO TRINITY LINE...COULD BRIEFLY TRANSITION TO
FREEZING RAIN OR BECOME MIXED WITH SLEET. ELEVATED BRIDGES WILL
ALSO BE A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN SURROUNDING SURFACE ROADS AND
WILLO NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR ICY SPOTS. BY 16Z...FEEL AIR MASS
WILL HAVE WARMED ENOUGH THAT PRECIP AREAWIDE WILL BE RAIN. MONDAY
LOOKS TO BE COLD AS TEMPS STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOWER 40S. FCST
SOUNDINGS LOOK SUPER SATURATED AND PERIODS OF RAIN...AT TIMES
HEAVY...WILL PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT 06Z TUESDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS
WILL AVERAGE 1 TO 2 INCHES AREAWIDE WITH SOME ISOLATED 3 TO 4
INCH TOTALS.

THE UPPER LOW WILL DIG FURTHER SOUTH ON TUESDAY AND THIS WILL
ALLOW JET DYNAMICS TO FOSTER ADDITIONAL RAIN. PREFER THE ECMWF
WITH THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW AND STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE/JET DYNAMICS. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF
THE REGION BY 06Z WEDNESDAY. ALL PRECIP WILL END QUICKLY LATE
TUESDAY AFTN AS SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH DEVELOPS.
SKIES WILL CLEAR QUICKLY TUES NIGHT AND LOW TEMPS WILL APPROACH
FREEZING BY WED MORNING. A LIGHT FREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF
A COLUMBUS TO TOMBALL TO CLEVELAND LINE. CLEAR SKIES AND
UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY. CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND DRY AIR WILL ALLOW FOR VERY COLD TEMPS ON
THANKSGIVING MORNING. A HARD FREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
EXTREME NORTH AND A LIGHT FREEZE POSSIBLE OVER THE REMAINDER OF SE
TX. 43

&&

.MARINE...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE POSITIONING OF LARGE U.S. UPPER MIDWEST HIGH
PRESSURE AND LOWER SOUTHERN GULF PRESSURE...WITH A HEALTHILY DOSE OF
COOLER AIR OVERRUNNING LOW TO MID 60 DEGREE WATER...WILL KEEP STRONG
NORTHERLIES IN PLACE THROUGH MID-WEEK. CHURNED UP SEAS WILL REMAIN
AT CAUTION/ADVISORY LEVELS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE EARLY
WORK WEEK DEVELOPMENT AND EVENTUAL EASTERN PROGRESSION OF A WESTERN
GULF SURFACE LOW WILL AGAIN TIGHTEN THE LOCAL GRADIENT ALONG ITS
BACKSIDE. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY WILL STRENGTHEN OFFSHORE
FLOW EVEN MORE...LIKELY MAINTAINING/RE-HOISTING ADVISORY FLAGS FOR
BOTH WINDS AND SEAS. THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LOW
TUESDAY HAS HIGH-END PRECIPITATION CHANCES OF PRIMARILY RAIN IN THE
CURRENT MARINE FORECAST. 31




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[downsouthman1]

I cannot stress enough the instability that exists in the atmosphere. You can see it when you look at San Angelo radar. As that general area moves on in, it will be enhanced by the ULL & the developing surface low/trough. It should merge with a developing band of precip somewhere over central Texas overnight towards 6AM. The radar should start lighting up like a christmas tree before too long.

[ludosc]

Event or non event it's a good warm up for the gang! After the last 6 Novembers If anyone told you we'd get an early start at watching something try to unfold this month who would've believed it? Beats the indian summers!

Yes and the cold by itself has been amazing. Just walking outside it feels so good out there. Heck I've got windows cracked open at my house right now.

[horselattitudesfarm]

Event or non event it's a good warm up for the gang! After the last 6 Novembers If anyone told you we'd get an early start at watching something try to unfold this month who would've believed it? Beats the indian summers!

Thats for sure!

[KeriCarter]

Very light rain here in Texarkana with a temp of 36. Hoping for some white stuff for the kiddos to play in.

[sooner101]

Is what were looking at on the radar just over the border in Mexico the start of the "main event" overnight?

[TeamPlayersBlue]

i agrwe with downsouthman. The ULL is still SO far away and isnt in the prime area of the map yet. Look a the moisture stream in Mexico. Its coming. Middle of the night, the radar will be lit for sure. This does remind me of the Feb 2010 event very much though. I remember going to bed with little moisture on the map like this, then at 7 am the next day, BAM Texas was covered.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Is what were looking at on the radar just over the border in Mexico the start of the "main event" overnight?

Yes i think so, it will look more intense as the ULL approaches as well.

[iorange55]

Just came back from picking up something to eat. Getting some light precip again. Temperature is still 32/33 degrees.

[sooner101]

I've been reading this thread for a while, and just got registered to chime in yesterday. The most exciting part is reading all the information leading up to the storms rather than the storm itself lol

[downsouthman1]

Is what were looking at on the radar just over the border in Mexico the start of the "main event" overnight?

Yes. It's part of it. The other part hasn't developed yet.

[sooner101]

What is a good website to view the moisture stream, and the actual low pressure system?

[Longhornmaniac8]

What is a good website to view the moisture stream, and the actual low pressure system?

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_US/anim16wv.html

Cheers,
Cameron

PS: Please beat OSU...

[katheria]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/weus/loop-wv.html

[sooner101]

What is a good website to view the moisture stream, and the actual low pressure system?

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_US/anim16wv.html

Cheers,
Cameron

PS: Please beat OSU...

Thanks!
And I hope we do, but I can't make any promises. lol but it'll be a close one!

[horselattitudesfarm]

I think what I like the best from this system is that it will only be in the 40's on Turkey Day. I love it cold on Thanksgiving and Christmas what with all the cooking and people over it generates a lot of heat inside

[iorange55]

The light precip I am getting here at the house has dropped the temp down a degree. It's now showing 31 degrees.

[katheria]

still 34.5 here

[iorange55]

Can confirm that it is indeed freezing rain that is falling. The backyard grill has some ice on it now for the first time today.

[gpsnowman]

Can confirm that it is indeed freezing rain that is falling. The backyard grill has some ice on it now for the first time today.

Same here in Grand Prairie, iorange. Felt it on my metal table and my 12 pack of Miller I am keeping outside because our fridge is packed.