Texas Fall 2013

[Longhornmaniac8]

Cold rain in the Lakeline area.

Edited to add: Temperatures are already down about 1 degree since the rain started. Now 36.9.

Cheers,
Cameron

[TexasF6]

Cold rain in the Lakeline area.

Edited to add: Temperatures are already down about 1 degree since the rain started. Now 36.9.

Cheers,
Cameron

Ditto Longhorn! It is dropping our temperature!!!!

[katheria]

talked to a friend in mineral wells.

sleet is coming down at a good pace

guess ill set my alarm 1 hr early for tomorrow, knowing my work, they wont close LOL

[srainhoutx]

Morning Update from Jeff:

Winter storm unfolding over TX this morning.

Secondary surge of dry and cold arctic air has moved into SE TX overnight from the NE resulting in a gradual decrease in clouds roughly along and NE of a line from Huntsville to High Island. This surge has also resulted in dewpoints falling into the 20’s for most of the area and the formation of a very dry layer in the 900 to 700mb level as noted on the 12Z FWD, SHV, and LCH soundings. In the mid levels moisture continues to overrun the cold dome at the surface as shown on the CRP sounding (no dry layer). The tail end of a lead short wave ahead of the main large scale upper level storm over AZ currently is moving across C and N TX with rain mixed with sleet at times. Expect this feature to progress ENE today with clouds thickening and lower with time over SE TX and possibly some light rain/sleet mix over our W/NW counties this afternoon.

Tonight-Monday Evening:

SE TX:

Upper level storm will move into NM forcing surface low pressure formation along the lower TX coast. Good moisture advection will occur above the surface cold dome tonight with light rain and drizzle developing from SW to NE across the region by Monday morning. Initial wet bulbing (aka evaporative cooling) from the precipitation falling through the very dry low level air will help cool the air column some, but not enough to result in a full change over to sleet and not enough to bring surface temperatures to freezing. Expect to see some sleet report this afternoon and tonight across the region mixed with the rainfall, but there will be no accumulation as surface temperatures remain in the mid to upper 30’s. It will take some time for the falling precipitation to moisten the low levels and this may prevent much in the way of rainfall for much of the night.

Warm aid advection above the surface cold dome increasing on Monday and expect widespread rainfall to develop. Short term models continue to suggest banded moderate to at times heavy rainfall advancing inland from the coast by late Monday as the surface low crosses our coastal waters. Think the heaviest rains will be along and S of US 59 and then another band likely across our NW counties where lift is maximized from the upper level system. Rainfall amounts will average 1-2 inches across much of the area.

Tides will also be increasing as winds veer to the ENE on the north side of the developing surface low off the lower TX coast. ENE winds are a favorable wind direction for elevated tides along the upper TX coast and tides could run .5 to 1.5 feet above normal by late Monday.

Along and W of I-35:

Bigger concerns will be found within the Winter Storm Warning area from roughly Del Rio to W of Austin to Dallas. Here the surface temperatures will be at or below freezing and various forecasted profiles indicate a prolonged mix of freezing rain and sleet. Could see some hefty accumulations of .25 to .75 of an inch of ice in the warning area along with sleet accumulation. Travel will be extremely hazardous in these areas by late this afternoon. Currently a tough call around Austin as this area will be right on the dividing line and it is somewhat questionable if surface temperatures will fall to freezing. Could see some minor icing in this area, but not to the extent of area just to the NW.

Monday night-Tuesday night:

Surface low progresses into LA, but upper level storm system will still be moving across the state. While the best moisture is carried eastward with the surface low, there does appear to be just enough moisture left when combined with the strong lift from the upper level low to produce additional precipitation into Tuesday. Of some concern is the cooling of the air column as the cold pocket associated with the upper level storm system moves overhead. Forecast soundings still look fairly marginal for sleet/snow production over SE TX, but the dynamics associated with these systems can sometimes compensate for a lack of moisture and meager temperature profiles. For now will keep everything liquid over the area, but this time period will need further evaluation in the next 24 hours.

Tuesday night-Friday:

Winter storm exits TX with cold and dry NW flow in place. Skies should gradually clear on Wednesday setting the area up for freezing conditions on Thursday morning. Slow but gradual warming trend begins on Friday with temperatures finally breaking 60.

[joshskeety]

Moderate sleet here in Northern Parker county...

[srainhoutx]

NWS San Angelo reporting freezing rain and downed power lines in Eldorado.

[Peanut432]

My dad said the snow is 12 to 15 inches deep in Wellington north of Childresss. 5 here in sw ok

[Parker_County1]

Light Freezing Rain here in Weatherford. 30°.

[sooner101]

What time frame is the brunt of this storm going to hit the DFW area?

[Longhornmaniac8]

Rain has just about finished here in NW Austin. Temperature is now 35.6.

Cheers,
Cameron

[katheria]

What time frame is the brunt of this storm going to hit the DFW area?

worst part will be starting id say around 2am (ft worth west) monday morning







The above post and any post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products

[TeamPlayersBlue]

50 F here in sugar land, dewpoint 36F. The sun actually just peeked through

[SnowintheFalls]

We did not get much of anything here in the Wichita Falls area. Local mets are backing off anything significant even for the next wave. Was really hoping for more but just happy to even be discussing it in the month of November!

[Ntxw]

Heads up Denton and Tarrant counties, we need to know if stuff is falling or if it's evaporating and what is falling if it is!

[bevolon]

We live 2 miles west of Keller and it started off as sleet then quit now it is very light rain. Off and on now for 30 minutes

[jstroud]

Sleeting near TCU.

[sooner101]

Is everything not turning out as first expected? First round seems to be a bust?

[aggiecutter]

Currently in Texarkana it is 33 degrees with a dewpoint of 15. All the 12z runs of the models have a QPF output of 1-1.25" of precip for the Texarkana area. I don't need JB or Portastorm(one in the same) to tell me that equals a significant ice storm for this area.

[Texas Snowman]

Maybe I'm wrong, but this is starting to feel like a giant bust outside of the Panhandle and High Plains.

[gpsnowman]

Sleet coming down hwy 360 and trinity.