Texas Fall 2013

[joshskeety]

And although the 18z looks dryer to the naked eye, on hi resolution maps it still puts down .50-1.0 QPF 50 miles any direction of the Metroplex.. I know that doesn't seem as bad as it once was because its not the 1.25-1.5 QPF, but lets be honest.. Ive seen .25-.50 QPF sleet/ice storms CRIPPLE cities in the Mid Atlantic..

Yesterday in Lubbock .20 caused ice storm warning and shut down freeways.. .25 QPF is all they need for a warning..

This is still a very serious situation in the Metroplex.. Even though Im worried its going to be worse then they are saying because I think the NAM is really overestimating the high pressure and underestimating the ULL..

[ROCK]

FWIW- just got back from the gym and this old dude body builder told me SA was seeing some flakes.....can anyone confirm?

That's like saying I went to Barnes & Noble and saw this old meteorologist. He told me that you won't make any gains if you don't train to failure.

Can anyone confirm?

Man, I come back for a little winter weather discussion and I get this..... ...I dont get it? so you went to a book store to workout or read but ran into a MET who thinks he's a trainer.

just checked twitter so nothing in SA at this time....warnings have expanded though....the event is close.

[Portastorm]

It was only a matter of time as the model trends today have suggested the wintry wx threat further south and east than what was originally anticipated. And I don't think that trend is over. Before all is said and done, it wouldn't surprise me to see parts of southeast Texas under winter weather warnings of various sorts.

Remember everyone ... once this event begins, take pictures and post them!

[sooner101]

local dfw mets don't seem to think it's going to get that bad. Or they don't have a clue what's going to happen. Steve McCauley saying light rain and sleet through tomorrow afternoon, then a break, and once midnight hits is where we will see sleet and it will transition back to rain on Monday.

[iorange55]

Man, I come back for a little winter weather discussion and I get this..... ...I dont get it? so you went to a book store to workout or read but ran into a MET who thinks he's a trainer.

just checked twitter so nothing in SA at this time....warnings have expanded though....the event is close.

I was just giving you a hard time. I actually did go to Barnes & Noble today, but I didn't see anybody over the age of 50 in the place.

Anyway, I'll be sure to take some pictures of the "event." Although, if it turns out to be freezing rain...there might not be much take pictures of.

[joshskeety]

Very smart.. They aren't buying the NAM version it seems.. Seems they are heavy ECMWF.. Warning going out throughout the FWT minus 3 most southeastern counties.. And they are also saying that wrap around Tuesday morning will give snow to DFW as ECMWF suggests, but NAM doesn't show..

Though I disagree a bit with the saturation part in this, even with dewpoints in the teens, the storm is very dynamic and will have no problems moistening especially since it will start as freezing rain in all the TAF..



000
FXUS64 KFWD 232208
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
408 PM CST SAT NOV 23 2013

.DISCUSSION...
A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION HAS CROSSED EAST OF THE PECOS AND
WILL APPROACH WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING.
ALTHOUGH INITIALLY RAIN...TEMPERATURES IN FAR WESTERN ZONES ARE
BARELY ABOVE FREEZING AT THIS POINT...AND SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE BEFORE MIDNIGHT. GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS
THAT A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR IS INVADING NORTH TEXAS AT
THIS TIME...WHICH WILL RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE DRYING BELOW 800MB.
AN AMDAR SOUNDING OUT OF LOVE FIELD AROUND 145 PM CST SHOWED THAT
THIS HAS YET TO OCCUR IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...BUT THIS DRY AIR IS
LIKELY STILL UPSTREAM TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. THIS DEEP ARCTIC
MAY REACH THE METROPLEX IN TIME FOR THE 00Z RAOB IN FORT WORTH.
THE 00Z SOUNDING SHOULD GIVE A GOOD INDICATION OF THE POTENTIAL
EVOLUTION OF THIS DRY LAYER. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS BONE-DRY
AIR COULD PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AT THE SURFACE
UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY. BUT REGARDLESS OF THE ONSET TIME...
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY ON SUNDAY AS THE INITIAL
IMPULSE FROM AN APPROACHING UPPER LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE CWA.

INITIALLY...THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN LIQUID FORM...SOME OF
WHICH MAY REACH THE GROUND WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW FREEZING.
ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...BUT
SLEET SHOULD BE THE PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE IN AREAS WEST
OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR ON SUNDAY. AS THE PRECIPITATION FALLS THROUGH
THE DRY LAYER...WITHIN WHICH TEMPERATURES WILL ALREADY BE NEAR
FREEZING...THE COLUMN WILL COOL SUFFICIENTLY TO YIELD A
SUB-FREEZING SUB-CLOUD LAYER AROUND A MILE DEEP. THE WARM NOSE
WITHIN THE PRECIP-PRODUCING LAYER WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE...WHICH
(FOR MUCH OF THE AREA) SHOULD MAINTAIN LIQUID PRECIP THAT WILL
EITHER FREEZE DURING FLIGHT (SLEET) OR ON CONTACT (FREEZING RAIN).
IN NORTHWEST ZONES...THE COLUMN MAY COOL SUFFICIENTLY ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE SNOW. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING
IN SOUTHEAST ZONES...THE PRECIP WILL LIKELY REMAIN AS RAIN ON
SUNDAY.

A BREAK IS EXPECTED BETWEEN THE EXITING IMPULSE SUNDAY EVENING AND
THE ARRIVAL OF THE MAIN UPPER FORCING EARLY MONDAY. HOWEVER...THIS
TRANSITION IS DIFFICULT TO REPRESENT WITH 6-HOURLY POP/WX GRIDS...
WHICH APPEAR TO SHOW ONE CONTINUOUS EVENT. NONETHELESS...THE BREAK
BETWEEN EVENTS WILL BE OF LIMITED DURATION...AND ALL THE COOLING
THAT RESULTED FROM SUNDAY PRECIPITATION WILL RESULT IN DEEP COLD
AIR BY THE TIME THE NEXT ROUND BEGINS EARLY MONDAY MORNING. AT
THIS TIME...THE MONDAY PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXCEED THE WATER
EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS OF THE SUNDAY EVENT. IT APPEARS THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS WILL STILL BE SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR...WHERE SLEET
ACCUMULATIONS MAY TOP ONE INCH. WARNING CRITERIA MAY NOT BE MET
ACROSS THE ENTIRE WARNING AREA...BUT WITH TWO SEPARATE EVENTS BOTH
RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE IMPACTS TO TRAVEL...EXPANDING THE
WARNING AREA TO INCLUDE ALL OF THE PREVIOUS WATCH AREA WAS THE
MOST REASONABLE REPRESENTATION OF THE POTENTIAL THREAT. THE THREE
SOUTHEASTERNMOST COUNTIES (MILAM-ROBERTSON-LEON) WILL HAVE NO
WINTER WEATHER WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY AT THIS TIME ALTHOUGH SOME
BRIEF FREEZING RAIN COULD IMPACT THESE ZONES AROUND DAYBREAK
MONDAY. THE PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD
GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO RAIN.

THE MAIN UPPER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE LONE STAR STATE ON
TUESDAY...TAKING A FARTHER SOUTH TRAJECTORY THAN EARLIER
ANTICIPATED. THIS COULD RESULT IN YET ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY MORNING. WITH LARGE-SCALE FORCING FURTHER
COOLING THE COLUMN...THE PRECIP MODE WILL LIKELY BE SNOW
THROUGHOUT THE CWA. HAVE KEPT ACCUMULATIONS LOW AT THIS POINT.
WITH AMOUNTS LIKELY WITHIN ADVISORY CRITERIA AT BEST...NO NEED TO
ADDRESS WITH A WATCH AT THIS TIME.

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

Pretty sure the 2nd front is now through DFW...skies have cleared and wind is stiffening from the north. Air is noticeably drier.

[joshskeety]

Pretty sure the 2nd front is now through DFW...skies have cleared and wind is stiffening from the north. Air is noticeably drier.

Yup.... Seeing the same thing here in Parker county...

Going to allow temps to drop off at night without the cloud cover and lower dewpoints..

[SnowintheFalls]

This scenario has definitely shown some intriguing developments! I know there are a lot of variables right now, but what are the projections for the Wichita Falls area? The local mets seem to be all over the place with their forecasts and I was curious what the models are showing at this time.

[Annie Oakley]

Pretty sure the 2nd front is now through DFW...skies have cleared and wind is stiffening from the north. Air is noticeably drier.

Yup.... Seeing the same thing here in Parker county...

Going to allow temps to drop off at night without the cloud cover and lower dewpoints..

Where is Parker County........among the 256 in Texas?

[Jarodm12]

oh yea 850mb front is moving look at those 20s dw points just north of dfw this is exciting? what happened to the nam? do you think the 00utc model will come around?

[weatherdude1108]

TXZ173-191-192-206-240600-
/O.EXB.KEWX.WS.W.0001.131124T2000Z-131125T1800Z/

WILLIAMSON-HAYS-TRAVIS-COMAL-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GEORGETOWN...SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN...

NEW BRAUNFELS

355 PM CST SAT NOV 23 2013

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM SUNDAY TO NOON CST

MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE I-35 CORRIDOR NORTH OF NEW

BRAUNFELS...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM SUNDAY TO NOON CST

MONDAY. THIS IS AN UPGRADE TO THE PREVIOUS WINTER STORM WATCH.

* TIMING...LIGHT TO MODERATE FREEZING RAIN BY MID SUNDAY

AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

* MAIN IMPACT...PATCHY ICE MAY DEVELOP ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.

* OTHER IMPACTS...SENSITIVE PLANTS SHOULD BE COVERED AND PETS

BROUGHT INDOORS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW...SLEET...

FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THIS

WILL CAUSE CONSIDERABLE TRAVEL PROBLEMS AND MAY POSE A THREAT TO

LIFE AND PROPERTY.


000
FXUS64 KEWX 232130
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
330 PM CST SAT NOV 23 2013

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN IS CURRENTLY ONLY ISOLATED IN COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT AN INCREASE IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU ARE CURRENTLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S...BUT WILL FALL TO NEAR FREEZING TONIGHT. THE
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND COLD SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD
TO LIGHT SLEET AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY
SUNDAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO WARM UP. DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS...A WINTER STORM WARNING IS
IN EFFECT FOR THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU BEGINNING
TONIGHT. WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS THE
METRO AREAS.

THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SWRN U.S. WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD ON
SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER COLD AND WET DAY ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW/MID 40S.
COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN HIGH AND THEREFORE THE POTENTIAL FOR
WINTRY PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING WILL EXPAND
FARTHER EAST. UPGRADED THE PREVIOUS WINTER STORM WATCH TO A WINTER
STORM WARNING. THE WARNING INCLUDES THE HILL COUNTRY/EDWARDS
PLATEAU...AND ALSO THE I-35 CORRIDOR BETWEEN GEORGETOWN AND NEW
BRAUNFELS...INCLUDING THE AUSTIN METRO AREA. THE COMBINATION OF
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WILL
CAUSE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE ON BRIDGES...OVERPASSES...AND
RAISED/EXPOSED SURFACES. EVEN THOUGH ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS...THIS WILL NONETHELESS CAUSE
MAJOR IMPACTS FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REACH NEW MEXICO/FAR WEST TEXAS ON
MONDAY AND MOVE ACROSS TEXAS ON TUESDAY. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY TO REACH THE LOW 50S ACROSS
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS...BUT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION WILL
OTHERWISE REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW/MID 40S. CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN HIGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL AGAIN BE COLD...BUT THE ENVIRONMENTAL
PROFILE AT THAT POINT WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SNOW FLURRIES
TO MIX-IN WITH THE COLD RAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN
ZONES. DUE TO THE CURRENT EXPECTATION OF NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
AND THE ONGOING WINTER STORM WARNING...HAVE NOT ISSUED A WATCH FOR
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF OUR AREA. THE CLOUD COVER WILL BE
SLOWER TO CLEAR OUT OF THE AREA...BUT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL UNDERGO A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE
EFFICIENT ENOUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO ALLOW A WIDESPREAD FREEZE
THANKSGIVING MORNING. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THANKSGIVING
NIGHT...WHICH WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING MOSTLY IN
THE MID 30S OR WARMER. THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 70 ON SATURDAY.

[opticsguy]

Parker County is west of Fort Worth by a county or two.

I remember the NAM underestimating precipitation on the last two DFW snow/ice events. It seems to overestimate the movement of cold dense air, and may not consider moisture in Western Mexico/Baja, where there are precious few soundings.

The local media (DFW) does not seem to be too worried.

[sooner101]

What is the difference between the winter storm warning around the dfw area, and the winter storm warning southwest of dfw?

[Ntxw]

What is the difference between the winter storm warning around the dfw area, and the winter storm warning southwest of dfw?

Different weather offices have different criteria for a winter storm warning and/advisory. I know Fort Worth's criteria for snow is 4+ inches in a 24 hour period but in Houston and Austin that may just be 2 inches (not sure on exact amounts but just using as example). Further north say in Amarillo or Oklahoma 4 inches is just an advisory. Ice often can jump up to warnings quickly as it doesn't take much to disrupt lives and property.

[Jarodm12]

2 hours 2 hours and we will have a better idea hopefully the nam comes around i think it will 850mb front is moving

[Portastorm]

Don't think I've ever seen more love for the NAM on this board than in the last few days. I'm afraid that some of you Metroplexers are going to be cursing it come Monday for not delivering the goods.

Just sayin' ...

[Jarodm12]

Don't think I've ever seen more love for the NAM on this board than in the last few days. I'm afraid that some of you Metroplexers are going to be cursing it come Monday for not delivering the goods.

Just sayin' ...

hey i dont necessarily want snow i just love winter weather im in Waco and apparently we are in a heavy precip zone i just dont want that heavily precip as cold rain. got to take it when you can get it, know what im saying?

[Ntxw]

Don't think I've ever seen more love for the NAM on this board than in the last few days. I'm afraid that some of you Metroplexers are going to be cursing it come Monday for not delivering the goods.

Just sayin' ...

Oh Portastorm you should know better! We don't love any model, all of them have caused us to pull our hairs out one point or another. We just pick the most convenient model that shows 2 feet of snow every time!

[Jarodm12]

lol so true