Texas Fall 2013

[sooner101]

The latest models still showing warmer drier air or are they back to what was earlier predicted?

[Annie Oakley]

The latest models still showing warmer drier air or are they back to what was earlier predicted?

That's good obs especially since the current temps are reflecting that.....
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... on=-97.743

[downsouthman1]

The latest models still showing warmer drier air or are they back to what was earlier predicted?

Not many models were showing the warmer. Almost all models show the drier air because of the additional upper atmospheric cool air heading south right now. It will dry out the low levels of the atmosphere. But they will remoisten as temps fall to wet bulb during the day on Sunday.

[srainhoutx]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
213 PM CST SAT NOV 23 2013

.UPDATE...
SWATH OF HEAVIER WINTRY PRECIP WAS MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTN. A FEW PHONE CALLS TO EMERGENCY
PERSONNEL REPORTED EITHER LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW OR SLEET UNDERNEATH
THE HEAVIER PRECIP BANDS. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT
THIS CHANGE.

[downsouthman1]

18Z NAM initializing. Looks drier so far until precip seems to explode Monday 3-6AM.

[Ntxw]

Wide view (wv) of our big storm

[Annie Oakley]

Texans...take care of each other....

None of this:

http://youtu.be/yCSMCgqlc-0

[Jarodm12]

where is the 850mb front?

[srainhoutx]

PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
337 PM EST SAT NOV 23 2013

VALID 00Z SUN NOV 24 2013 - 00Z WED NOV 27 2013

...DAYS 1-3...

...SOUTHWEST INTO TEXAS/ARKLATEX/OZARKS...

MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW NEAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO CONTINUE
PRODUCING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH
SIGNIFICANT SNOWS EXTENDING EAST ACROSS PARTS OF THE TX PANHANDLE
INA ZONE OF STRONG 700 MB WARM./MOIST ADVECTION. FURTHER SOUTH
FROM SOUTHWEST TX ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS...THE MID LEVEL INVERSION
ABOVE FREEZING CAUSES FALLING SNOW TO MELT...WITH SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN MORE PREVALENT.

THROUGH TONIGHT AND MOST OF SUNDAY...HEAVY SNOWS ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CO/NM ROCKIES...WITH THE SREF/GEFS
MEANS BLENDED WITH THE ECMWF/UKMET/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN TO DERIVE
THE SNOW AMOUNTS...WITH MAXIMA IN EACH OF THE RANGES FROM THE SAN
JUANS OF CO/ADJACENT NM ON SOUTH ACROSS NM.

AS THE UPPER LOW EXITS NEW MEXICO...THE SFC HIGH MOVING INTO THE
SRN APPALACHIANS HAS A RIDGE EXTENDING INTO NORTH TEXAS TO
REINFORCE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR IN NORTH TO CENTRAL TEXAS.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME A MIXTURE OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
ON DAY 2...PARTICULARLY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS TOWARD THE
ARKLATEX.
THE SOLUTION SPREAD WITH THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW REMAINS SMALL
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT... HOWEVER...THE THERMAL PROFILES REMAIN A
PRIMARY SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY AS 06Z GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW TEMPS OF
-2 TO -3C BETWEEN THE SFC AND 850 MB IN CENTRAL TX...SUPPORTING
SLEET...AND NOT JUST FREEZING RAIN.

MODEL QPF VALUES SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN TOTALS OF 0.5 TO 0.75
INCHES BETWEEN SAN ANGELO TO JUNCTION AND FORT HOOD TX.
...TAPERING OFF TO LOWER VALUES HEADING ACROSS NORTHEAST TX TO
THE ARKLATEX. THESE AMOUNTS COULD BE HIGH IF SLEET LASTS FOR A
LONGER PERIOD. THE HIGH PROBABILITIES REFLECT THAT OUTPUT FROM THE
12Z NAM/09Z SREF MEAN/12Z GEFS MEAN/ECMWF/UKMET/GFS ALL EXCEED A
QUARTER INCH IN THIS AREA. GIVEN THE HIGH 12Z NAM QPF...MORE
WEIGHTING WAS GIVEN THE ECMWF/UKMET/09Z SREF MEAN/06Z GEFS MEAN
QPF AND TEMPERATURE PROFILES.

[Portastorm]

where is the 850mb front?

Darn good question. I'm still trying to figure out how to determine where the 850mb front is.

[TrekkerCC]

where is the 850mb front?

Darn good question. I'm still trying to figure out how to determine where the 850mb front is.

It's hard to pick out but I think it's located around the Texas Panhandle area and then south into west Texas. This is basically south (and southeast) of the 850mb height low in Colorado.

Disclaimers: These my amateur observations; I'm not a meteorologist

[Portastorm]

As I expected, EWX is changing the Winter Storm Watch to a WARNING. Latest AFD is out. Monday morning commute in this town is going to be a real mess. But don't worry, your Grey Goose-swilling mets from the PWC will be hard at work tracking the storm and keeping an eye out on the future potential winter events.

[srainhoutx]

Good afternoon discussion from HGX. Worth the read...

[Ntxw]

where is the 850mb front?

Darn good question. I'm still trying to figure out how to determine where the 850mb front is.

It's in Oklahoma, dew points in OKC have dropped to low teens while upper 20s in Ardmore. Somewhere in between.

[Jarodm12]

dew points havent lowered much im really interested to see 19 degree dew points looks unrealistic from this perspective

[ROCK]

FWIW- just got back from the gym and this old dude body builder told me SA was seeing some flakes.....can anyone confirm?

[joshskeety]

18zNAM has now gone the route of the GFS.. Hence its now out to lunch.. Easily told as it doesn't even see the current precip going on in the Central Panhandle right now.. The reason why it is doing this is its freaked itself out by that 1050mb high in North Dakota..

At this point, the ECMWF, the SREF and the UKMET are still in line for a major dump of moisture.. THe ECMWF seems to be the most aggressive with colder air and more moisture..

The NAM is undervaluing the ULL and always seems to do this late into forecast with cutoff ULL.. I think its putting too much stock in lowering dewpoints so low in the upper atmosphere and doesn't think the moisture has enough punch to get saturation on all layers and dries it out way too much.. Let me put it this way too you, when have you ever seen verga on this area of the country for very long? Doesn't happen all that much.. Too much moisture in this system for that.. When I lived up in Virginia where in these types of storms and we would be -10c at 850 and surface of 21 degrees and watched good systems get killed by the dry air and it would take HOURS to moisten things up.. I just don't see that at -3c 850mb and dewpoints in the 20's and a huge ULL low and a huge GULF and pacific moisture to tap into.. I think the NAM is just too balls deep with that high pressure and overly drying things out..

[Portastorm]

FWIW- just got back from the gym and this old dude body builder told me SA was seeing some flakes.....can anyone confirm?

I haven't seen any reports suggesting snow flurries in San Antonio.

[iorange55]

FWIW- just got back from the gym and this old dude body builder told me SA was seeing some flakes.....can anyone confirm?

That's like saying I went to Barnes & Noble and saw this old meteorologist. He told me that you won't make any gains if you don't train to failure.

Can anyone confirm?

[Ntxw]

Warnings have been expanded for Texas to include the Austin metro area (for freezing rain and sleet) and extended to Waco in North Texas for sleet/snow. The areas already in warnings remain so for sleet/snow. Texarkana region will likely be next. Only a handful of times do we ever see such expanse of the state warned for winter weather simultaneously.