Texas Fall 2013
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srainhoutx
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Re: Texas Fall 2013
Keep an eye on the shorter range guidance such as the SREF/RAP and HRRR as well has the HIRES NAM. What I would focus on are the 500mb and 700mb data as well as the amount of precip ~vs~ real time radar data for verification.
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Re:
gpsnowman wrote:Is it time to start panicking?
You are doing fine, the I-20/30 corridor north and west is still seeing sleet/freezing rain on the 12z. You will get it, it is places further south that risk a cold rain that the NAM has been trying to bury like Waco, Tyler, and Austin. Assuming that one run.
Last edited by Ntxw on Sat Nov 23, 2013 10:36 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Portastorm
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Re: Texas Fall 2013
Ntxw wrote:orangeblood wrote:hmmm...1 run doesn't make a trend but 12 NAM going towards GFS with a warmer/drier scenario
It sure isn't, but it can definitely make folks on the cusp like Austin and Waco panic. Oh the emotions Portastorm must be feeling right now. Sure wasn't expecting PWC mets having to start work so early before Thanksgiving!
To date, the PWC mets have felt we'd be on the outer fringes of this event and that ours would be mostly rain. So, no panic here.
This is a very complex setup and anyone who read Cavanaugh this morning should know that. A lot of variables at play. Too early to be freaking out about a model trend. Besides, we're almost at the point where we blow off the models and watch satellite for the UL, keep an eye on the 850mb front to gauge the secondary Arctic surge, and examine SkewTs and soundings.
There are some good short-range models -- (SREF, HIRES-NAM) -- which should now be followed closely.
Heh, I see srainhoutx beat me to the punch.
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Re: Texas Fall 2013
Portastorm wrote:This is a very complex setup and anyone who read Cavanaugh this morning should know that. A lot of variables at play. Too early to be freaking out about a model trend. Besides, we're almost at the point where we blow off the models and watch satellite for the UL, keep an eye on the 850mb front to gauge the secondary Arctic surge, and examine SkewTs and soundings
Coming in from the north/northeast somewhere in Kansas/Missouri, how much resistance will upper level low give? 1050mb is awfully big in the Dakotas
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srainhoutx
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Re: Texas Fall 2013
Morning Update from Jeff:
Major winter storm heading for TX with widespread impacts Sunday-Tuesday.
Will attempt to break down the multiple impacts of the incoming winter weather event by time period and location.
Today-midday Sunday:
Shallow cold arctic dome is in firm place across the state this morning, but it being overrun by a large layer of warm moist air around the 900mb level. This is resulting in widespread low clouds/fog/drizzle/light rain across the region while surface temperatures hover in the low to mid 40’s under gusty N winds across SE TX. Along and west of a line from near Del Rio to Kerrville to Abilene surface temperatures are cold enough to support light rain freezing on contact and forming into a layer of ice. TXDOT is reporting some icing of bridges and overpasses in Kerr County NW of San Antonio. Secondary surge of arctic surface high pressure currently advancing down the central plains will arrive into TX this evening (currently -5F in Fargo, ND). While there will be little to no change in the surface air temps or wind speeds, this surge will deepen the surface cold dome over the region tonight into Sunday and likely help end rain chances from NE to SW across our area tonight into midday Sunday, but also helping to set the stage for a potential mix of precipitation late Sunday.
Midday Sunday-Midday Monday:
Winter Storm moves into the state from the west.
Winter Storm Warnings have been issued from Dallas to Austin to Del Rio westward from Sunday into Monday for significant accumulations of ice and sleet. Will focus on the warning area first and then detail impacts across SE TX.
Dallas-Austin-Del Rio West (Winter Storm Warning area):
Large upper level storm system across S CA at this time will progress eastward spreading moisture and lift across the cold dome over TX. Surface temperatures Sunday morning are expected to be in the 30-36 degree range in the current warning area with a fairly pronounce warm layer above this near freezing surface layer. Onset of precipitation Sunday morning-midday into the dry low levels will help result in evaporative cooling of the air temperature toward the dewpoints which will be below freezing. Expect to see a fairly sharp temperature fall of surface temperatures to below freezing by midday in the warning area with mixed precipitation of freezing rain and sleet the common forms. Depending on which P-type is most dominant will determine accumulation amounts. Models are suggesting anywhere from .5 to 1.5 inches of liquid equivalent in the warning area which would be devastating from a freezing rain/ice stand point, but more manageable from a sleet standpoint. Given several processes in place changing the low and mid level thermal profiles in the warning area during this event, will likely not know P-type until the event is underway. Sunday night into Monday morning could see some good icing in the DFW and potentially the Austin metro areas. If the P-type is freezing rain, accumulations would likely be enough to result in downing of trees and power lines across the warning area.
SE TX:
Upper level storm system will force a coastal surface low to develop along the lower TX coast on Sunday. Gulf moisture swings northward above the cold arctic dome, but at the same time cold and dry air advection continues out of the NNE at the surface. This creates a dry sub-cloud layer and potential for wet bulb cooling across our area as the rainfall begins Sunday evening. Could see the start of the rainfall mixed with sleet over the region especially north of Houston where the low level air mass is driest. Evaporative cooling effects may be just enough to lower surface temperatures to near freezing Monday morning north of a line from Brenham to Conroe to Livingston resulting in a period of freezing rain. Ground temperatures remain very warm and do not think will be much if any accumulation even on bridges and overpasses although could see a slick spot north of a line from College Station to Huntsville. Temperatures will warm above freezing by 900-1000am Monday morning in all areas. This is a very marginal threat, but could be enough for a winter weather advisory.
Southward all rain is likely as the coastal storm moves NE along the coast. Moderate to heavy rainfall will develop in SW to NE bands along and north of the track of this surface low across much of SE TX. NE winds will increase helping to keep the cold air locked in place at the surface. Rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches are likely with isolated totals of 3-4 inches especially along the coast and possibly inland to US 59. Other impact will be increasing tides as strong ENE winds develop over the NW Gulf of Mexico in response to the deepening surface low. Could see tidal issues Monday along the Gulf facing beaches into Monday evening.
Midday Monday-Midday Tuesday:
Surface low pushes ENE across our coastal waters and east of the region by Tuesday morning taking most of the moisture with it. Upper level storm will move across TX late Monday into Tuesday with the cold pocket aloft eroding the mid level warm nose. Expect the back edge of the precipitation shield to mix with of change to snow as the thermal profiles fall below 32 through the entire column. Question at this time is how far SE this transition happens and if moisture will still be enough to produce precip. Current thinking is that across SE TX surface temperatures will still be at or above freezing and as the profile starts to become favorable for snow (removal of the warm nose) the rainfall will be ending. This is another very marginal threat and the most likely outcome at the moment is the air column will be too dry by the time the temperature is favorable for snow.
Temperatures:
Temperatures through the next 48 hours will hold in the 30’s and 40’s across the entire region. By Tuesday temperatures may break 50 degrees if a few breaks in the clouds occur late in the day. Will not see temps. break 60 until maybe Thanksgiving day.
Tuesday evening-Friday:
Storm system will be east of TX with gradually warming conditions and partly cloudy skies.
Major winter storm heading for TX with widespread impacts Sunday-Tuesday.
Will attempt to break down the multiple impacts of the incoming winter weather event by time period and location.
Today-midday Sunday:
Shallow cold arctic dome is in firm place across the state this morning, but it being overrun by a large layer of warm moist air around the 900mb level. This is resulting in widespread low clouds/fog/drizzle/light rain across the region while surface temperatures hover in the low to mid 40’s under gusty N winds across SE TX. Along and west of a line from near Del Rio to Kerrville to Abilene surface temperatures are cold enough to support light rain freezing on contact and forming into a layer of ice. TXDOT is reporting some icing of bridges and overpasses in Kerr County NW of San Antonio. Secondary surge of arctic surface high pressure currently advancing down the central plains will arrive into TX this evening (currently -5F in Fargo, ND). While there will be little to no change in the surface air temps or wind speeds, this surge will deepen the surface cold dome over the region tonight into Sunday and likely help end rain chances from NE to SW across our area tonight into midday Sunday, but also helping to set the stage for a potential mix of precipitation late Sunday.
Midday Sunday-Midday Monday:
Winter Storm moves into the state from the west.
Winter Storm Warnings have been issued from Dallas to Austin to Del Rio westward from Sunday into Monday for significant accumulations of ice and sleet. Will focus on the warning area first and then detail impacts across SE TX.
Dallas-Austin-Del Rio West (Winter Storm Warning area):
Large upper level storm system across S CA at this time will progress eastward spreading moisture and lift across the cold dome over TX. Surface temperatures Sunday morning are expected to be in the 30-36 degree range in the current warning area with a fairly pronounce warm layer above this near freezing surface layer. Onset of precipitation Sunday morning-midday into the dry low levels will help result in evaporative cooling of the air temperature toward the dewpoints which will be below freezing. Expect to see a fairly sharp temperature fall of surface temperatures to below freezing by midday in the warning area with mixed precipitation of freezing rain and sleet the common forms. Depending on which P-type is most dominant will determine accumulation amounts. Models are suggesting anywhere from .5 to 1.5 inches of liquid equivalent in the warning area which would be devastating from a freezing rain/ice stand point, but more manageable from a sleet standpoint. Given several processes in place changing the low and mid level thermal profiles in the warning area during this event, will likely not know P-type until the event is underway. Sunday night into Monday morning could see some good icing in the DFW and potentially the Austin metro areas. If the P-type is freezing rain, accumulations would likely be enough to result in downing of trees and power lines across the warning area.
SE TX:
Upper level storm system will force a coastal surface low to develop along the lower TX coast on Sunday. Gulf moisture swings northward above the cold arctic dome, but at the same time cold and dry air advection continues out of the NNE at the surface. This creates a dry sub-cloud layer and potential for wet bulb cooling across our area as the rainfall begins Sunday evening. Could see the start of the rainfall mixed with sleet over the region especially north of Houston where the low level air mass is driest. Evaporative cooling effects may be just enough to lower surface temperatures to near freezing Monday morning north of a line from Brenham to Conroe to Livingston resulting in a period of freezing rain. Ground temperatures remain very warm and do not think will be much if any accumulation even on bridges and overpasses although could see a slick spot north of a line from College Station to Huntsville. Temperatures will warm above freezing by 900-1000am Monday morning in all areas. This is a very marginal threat, but could be enough for a winter weather advisory.
Southward all rain is likely as the coastal storm moves NE along the coast. Moderate to heavy rainfall will develop in SW to NE bands along and north of the track of this surface low across much of SE TX. NE winds will increase helping to keep the cold air locked in place at the surface. Rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches are likely with isolated totals of 3-4 inches especially along the coast and possibly inland to US 59. Other impact will be increasing tides as strong ENE winds develop over the NW Gulf of Mexico in response to the deepening surface low. Could see tidal issues Monday along the Gulf facing beaches into Monday evening.
Midday Monday-Midday Tuesday:
Surface low pushes ENE across our coastal waters and east of the region by Tuesday morning taking most of the moisture with it. Upper level storm will move across TX late Monday into Tuesday with the cold pocket aloft eroding the mid level warm nose. Expect the back edge of the precipitation shield to mix with of change to snow as the thermal profiles fall below 32 through the entire column. Question at this time is how far SE this transition happens and if moisture will still be enough to produce precip. Current thinking is that across SE TX surface temperatures will still be at or above freezing and as the profile starts to become favorable for snow (removal of the warm nose) the rainfall will be ending. This is another very marginal threat and the most likely outcome at the moment is the air column will be too dry by the time the temperature is favorable for snow.
Temperatures:
Temperatures through the next 48 hours will hold in the 30’s and 40’s across the entire region. By Tuesday temperatures may break 50 degrees if a few breaks in the clouds occur late in the day. Will not see temps. break 60 until maybe Thanksgiving day.
Tuesday evening-Friday:
Storm system will be east of TX with gradually warming conditions and partly cloudy skies.
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Portastorm
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Re: Texas Fall 2013
Yep ... those of you who have been around here for awhile know that I have taken more swings and misses at Lucy's football than just about anyone. I refuse to get suckered in anymore! Besides ... it's way too early for you north Texas peeps to panic. Way too early. Relax and let things transpire today and have some confidence.
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RedRiverRefuge
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Re:
funster wrote:If it all dries up and vanishes that will be okay. There's nothing fun about an ice storm. Anyone who wants one of those deserves to lose power for two weeks. We don't want to be without power on Black Friday!!!
Im with you funster.... hoping for alternate scenario 1 - Slightly warmer and drier. For those that have never been in major ice storm... Funster is right on ..no fun AT ALL!!! Best logic, prepare for the worst (supplies etc.) and hope for the best.
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gboudx
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Re: Texas Fall 2013
Portastorm wrote::uarrow:
Yep ... those of you who have been around here for awhile know that I have taken more swings and misses at Lucy's football than just about anyone. I refuse to get suckered in anymore! Besides ... it's way too early for you north Texas peeps to panic. Way too early. Relax and let things transpire today and have some confidence.
I've learned to take the wait-and-see approach. Wait for something to fall from from the sky, and see if its rain, sleet, snow or "graupel".
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Re: Re:
RedRiverRefuge wrote:funster wrote:If it all dries up and vanishes that will be okay. There's nothing fun about an ice storm. Anyone who wants one of those deserves to lose power for two weeks. We don't want to be without power on Black Friday!!!
Im with you funster.... hoping for alternate scenario 1 - Slightly warmer and drier. For those that have never been in major ice storm... Funster is right on ..no fun AT ALL!!! Best logic, prepare for the worst (supplies etc.) and hope for the best.
Freezing rain, I would agree with you. I love winter weather, but even I am not crazy enough to want a bunch of freezing rain. I'm not too worried about sleet, it's basically a poor man's snow and I am fine with that.
I'd take a nice sleet storm.
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gboudx
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Re: Re:
iorange55 wrote:
Freezing rain, I would agree with you. I love winter weather, but even I am not crazy enough to want a bunch of freezing rain. I'm not too worried about sleet, it's basically a poor man's snow and I am fine with that.
I'd take a nice sleet storm.
Agreed but with potential freezing rain on the table, I need to trim a tree outside my fence which is leaning towards my house. Falling on the fence I'm fine with; my house notsomuch.
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SouthernMet
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Re: Texas Fall 2013
To follow up from my last post..
Then again, we may be at the stage where we can just "throw out" the Models & just watch the system itself. The evolution/speed of low & progression of the secondary cold surge are going to be Critical. Also monitor RAP/HRRR for trends with short term developments.
Then again, we may be at the stage where we can just "throw out" the Models & just watch the system itself. The evolution/speed of low & progression of the secondary cold surge are going to be Critical. Also monitor RAP/HRRR for trends with short term developments.
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Meteorcane
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Portastorm
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Re: Texas Fall 2013
Count me in with the group who abhor ice storms. Having no power for days in cold, wet weather absolutely sucks. Freezing rain is just dreadful.
Hey gboudx: yes, keep an eye out for that graupel!
Hey gboudx: yes, keep an eye out for that graupel!
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TeamPlayersBlue
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Check me if im wrong fellas, (going to a bar to watch Bayern Munich son so could only glance) but the GFS has the low tracking back over SE Texas. 850 temps dont look very cold, but i dont have time to check the soundings
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Portastorm
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Re:
TeamPlayersBlue wrote:Check me if im wrong fellas, (going to a bar to watch Bayern Munich son so could only glance) but the GFS has the low tracking back over SE Texas. 850 temps dont look very cold, but i dont have time to check the soundings
No need to check ya ... you got it right. The GFS is saying "Hey Houston, look at meeeee!"
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SouthernMet
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Re: Texas Fall 2013
I thought the Models had agreed on a consistent/realistic scenario.. & then all of a sudden a couple runs showed a drier/warmer event..
It still seems more than likely, that with temperatures in the low-mid 30's at the onset of the precip(dfw), that Wet Bulbing effect will occur, cooling temps to the upper 20's (I believe Cavanaugh touched on that) Still needs to be watched closely imo...
It still seems more than likely, that with temperatures in the low-mid 30's at the onset of the precip(dfw), that Wet Bulbing effect will occur, cooling temps to the upper 20's (I believe Cavanaugh touched on that) Still needs to be watched closely imo...
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Portastorm
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Re:
gpsnowman wrote:Ok, hypothetical here. If this were to be and all snow event, how many inches are we talking? Not a big fan of freezing rain either. That is just nasty.
The normal snow ratio is 10:1. In other words, 1 inch of rainfall equals 10 inches of snow. But given this atmospheric profile, the snow would probably be more "wet" and thus the ratio decreases to maybe 7 or 8 to 1. Considering that the latest QPF predictions show anywhere from 1 up to 2 inches of precipitation for North Texas, a very rough guess would be anywhere from 4-8 inches of snowfall. If the upper low were to traverse directly overhead, the vertical profile of your air column would support a higher ratio and, thus, greater accumulation.
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