Texas Fall 2013

[iorange55]

Steve McCauley posted this fun little map on his Facebook...



It should be noted that he doesn't believe this will happen. He's thinking most of it will be sleet and not snow.

[Ntxw]

From FW tonight. I really hope it's snow, we love snow and lots of it is fun. No need of this ice stuff. Crucial to see if the Euro continues it's dance with the NAM. A couple of things are important firstly watches should be expanded south and east so that counties and cities get their supplies and trucks ready if warranted <- this is why it's always a tough call to make when placing watches. Secondly precipitation type can be highly variable and makes a big difference between a skating rink and fun winter wonderland.

******
REGARDING SUNDAY/MONDAY WINTER PRECIPITATION EVENT...THE 00Z MODEL
RUN OF THE NAM CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER
EVENT WILL OCCUR OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ITS SOLUTION
SUGGESTS A SIGNIFICANT ICING AND POSSIBLE SNOW EVENT COULD OCCUR
OVER POSSIBLY ALL OF THE CWA. WHAT IS CONCERNING IS HOW CONSISTENT
THE NAM HAS BEEN WITH ITS SOLUTION. TONIGHTS RUN HAS HIGHER QPF
AMOUNTS WITH COLDER SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND ITS TIMING HAS SLOWED
SOME WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION OCCURRING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. BASED ON THE FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM...WE
COULD EVENTUALLY SEE SNOW OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND
SIGNIFICANT ICING ALL THE WAY INTO OUR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES...WITH SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION. AT THIS
TIME...WILL NOT BE MAKING ANY CHANGES TO THE WATCH UNTIL THE
REMAINDER OF THE 00Z MODELS ARRIVE TONIGHT. AT THAT POINT...WE
WILL DETERMINE IF THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO EXPAND OR EXTEND
THE WINTER STORM WATCH. THE NAM IS ONLY ONE SOLUTION AND IT IS
POSSIBLE THE DECISION COULD BE POSTPONED UNTIL CLOSER TO THE EVENT
DEPENDING ON THE BEHAVIOR OF THE MODELS.

[TexasF6]

Would someone PLEASE post models
showing CENTRAL TEXAS SNOWFALL please!!!! Ty!

[katheria]

Steve McCauley posted this fun little map on his Facebook...



It should be noted that he doesn't believe this will happen. He's thinking most of it will be sleet and not snow.

goes to bed tonight dreaming of Steve's Map LOL.......
maybe if i wish hard enough it will happen

[Ntxw]

Would someone PLEASE post models
showing CENTRAL TEXAS SNOWFALL please!!!! Ty!

Here you go! Frame it!



Be forewarned it is most likely sleet/freezing rain like in North Texas as Steve's entry mentioned even more so here than up north

[somethingfunny]

That NAM is on some serious drugs.

[Rgv20]

After a high of 85 around noon, the temperature is sitting at 42 right before midnight at my backyard! That's a 43 degree difference!

[somethingfunny]

This looks a little more realistic. I'm not sure what the QPF-to-accumulation ratio would be for sleet.

[WeatherNewbie]

Yea, I don't put much stock in their long term forecasts.. I think the good ole' Farmers Almanac has a better track record.. Which by the way says this Winter will be the coldest in 25 years..

Just watch JB vein pop out in his head when he goes on about them using their percentages.. 33% chance greater to be warmer, yet wouldn't a warm or cold be 50/50 anyway? Its not even a guess. Its like saying, there is a 33% chance this coin I flip will be heads.. Doesn't compute..

Anyhow.. Looked over the 00z data and other than the 00z NAM yesterday its been rather consistent and in line with the SREF and ECMWF.. Other than the guess of QPF, I believe we may have our timing and track.. QPF is anyone's guess.. The NWS always tries to say the NAM has a cold bias, but I think its quite the opposite and has a warm bias.. Always have, even back when the NAM was the ETA.. (Yea, that long ago.. lol)

This storm is going to be one to remember for the Metroplex, take the '93 NOOOOOOO LEON!!!!!!!! Storm and times it by 3 and make it twice as long and you have Sleetorama '13... I still think the sleet will change over to snow North and West of the Metroplex for the last 6 hours of the storm..

I see the First precip hitting early Sunday morning about 3 in the morning in Ft. Worth and by daylight it should be all over the Metroplex.. I believe it will start off as freezing rain, but quickly change to sleet as the atmosphere moistens and humidity rises.. Moderate to at time heavy sleet from Abilene to Rockwall all day Sunday and into the early morning Monday where it will begin to slow down early Monday morning.. As convergence takes place the atmosphere begins to moisten again, this will begin heavy freezing rain towards the south near Temple/Waco/West areas, how far north it gets will depend on how strong the low is, but models easily have the Metroplex south of Graham/Jacksboro/Denton/McKinney line and starts back Moderate sleet for most..

I think at this point is when areas north and west of the Metroplex will change over to snow and have moderate to heavy snow showers until afternoon Monday and depending on wraparound will begin to taper off west to east in the early to mid evening Monday.. South and east of the metroplex warm air is trying to push back up North so those in Corsicana/Tyler maybe as far north as Wax will see freezing rain/sleet change back to rain as the temperature Monday late morning and early afternoon begin to rise above the freezing point, but even here I wouldn't be surprised as the low passes that even they may see a few flakes as they get some wrap around towards the end of the storm..

For the Metroplex that could mean 36 hours of frozen precip..

NWS thinks that the temps will raise everywhere on Monday afternoon, but I can't find a model that states this outside of the southeastern part of the Metroplex and by that I mean the Corsicana/Wax and places further east..

Of course, tomorrow's weather models could change all of this upside down as we all know, but figured I would let ya'll see what I see for this area.. Definitely one of the historic storms if everything verifies..

Josh

If you're going to make predictions like this, you really should be using the forum disclaimer.

[sooner101]

According to Steve McCauley and local mets, seems like this storm expected Sunday/Monday could be a snow event by just a 1 degree drop from what's expected. What's everyone's input of precip type and temperatures?

[downsouthman1]

From FW tonight. I really hope it's snow, we love snow and lots of it is fun. No need of this ice stuff. Crucial to see if the Euro continues it's dance with the NAM. A couple of things are important firstly watches should be expanded south and east so that counties and cities get their supplies and trucks ready if warranted <- this is why it's always a tough call to make when placing watches. Secondly precipitation type can be highly variable and makes a big difference between a skating rink and fun winter wonderland.

******
REGARDING SUNDAY/MONDAY WINTER PRECIPITATION EVENT...THE 00Z MODEL
RUN OF THE NAM CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER
EVENT WILL OCCUR OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ITS SOLUTION
SUGGESTS A SIGNIFICANT ICING AND POSSIBLE SNOW EVENT COULD OCCUR
OVER POSSIBLY ALL OF THE CWA. WHAT IS CONCERNING IS HOW CONSISTENT
THE NAM HAS BEEN WITH ITS SOLUTION. TONIGHTS RUN HAS HIGHER QPF
AMOUNTS WITH COLDER SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND ITS TIMING HAS SLOWED
SOME WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION OCCURRING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. BASED ON THE FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM...WE
COULD EVENTUALLY SEE SNOW OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND
SIGNIFICANT ICING ALL THE WAY INTO OUR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES...WITH SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION. AT THIS
TIME...WILL NOT BE MAKING ANY CHANGES TO THE WATCH UNTIL THE
REMAINDER OF THE 00Z MODELS ARRIVE TONIGHT. AT THAT POINT...WE
WILL DETERMINE IF THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO EXPAND OR EXTEND
THE WINTER STORM WATCH. THE NAM IS ONLY ONE SOLUTION AND IT IS
POSSIBLE THE DECISION COULD BE POSTPONED UNTIL CLOSER TO THE EVENT
DEPENDING ON THE BEHAVIOR OF THE MODELS.

What was this article from? I can't find it on their pages.

[Turtle]

Chance of .25" freezing rain.

[joshskeety]

Yea, I don't put much stock in their long term forecasts.. I think the good ole' Farmers Almanac has a better track record.. Which by the way says this Winter will be the coldest in 25 years..

Just watch JB vein pop out in his head when he goes on about them using their percentages.. 33% chance greater to be warmer, yet wouldn't a warm or cold be 50/50 anyway? Its not even a guess. Its like saying, there is a 33% chance this coin I flip will be heads.. Doesn't compute..

Anyhow.. Looked over the 00z data and other than the 00z NAM yesterday its been rather consistent and in line with the SREF and ECMWF.. Other than the guess of QPF, I believe we may have our timing and track.. QPF is anyone's guess.. The NWS always tries to say the NAM has a cold bias, but I think its quite the opposite and has a warm bias.. Always have, even back when the NAM was the ETA.. (Yea, that long ago.. lol)

This storm is going to be one to remember for the Metroplex, take the '93 NOOOOOOO LEON!!!!!!!! Storm and times it by 3 and make it twice as long and you have Sleetorama '13... I still think the sleet will change over to snow North and West of the Metroplex for the last 6 hours of the storm..

I see the First precip hitting early Sunday morning about 3 in the morning in Ft. Worth and by daylight it should be all over the Metroplex.. I believe it will start off as freezing rain, but quickly change to sleet as the atmosphere moistens and humidity rises.. Moderate to at time heavy sleet from Abilene to Rockwall all day Sunday and into the early morning Monday where it will begin to slow down early Monday morning.. As convergence takes place the atmosphere begins to moisten again, this will begin heavy freezing rain towards the south near Temple/Waco/West areas, how far north it gets will depend on how strong the low is, but models easily have the Metroplex south of Graham/Jacksboro/Denton/McKinney line and starts back Moderate sleet for most..

I think at this point is when areas north and west of the Metroplex will change over to snow and have moderate to heavy snow showers until afternoon Monday and depending on wraparound will begin to taper off west to east in the early to mid evening Monday.. South and east of the metroplex warm air is trying to push back up North so those in Corsicana/Tyler maybe as far north as Wax will see freezing rain/sleet change back to rain as the temperature Monday late morning and early afternoon begin to rise above the freezing point, but even here I wouldn't be surprised as the low passes that even they may see a few flakes as they get some wrap around towards the end of the storm..

For the Metroplex that could mean 36 hours of frozen precip..

NWS thinks that the temps will raise everywhere on Monday afternoon, but I can't find a model that states this outside of the southeastern part of the Metroplex and by that I mean the Corsicana/Wax and places further east..

Of course, tomorrow's weather models could change all of this upside down as we all know, but figured I would let ya'll see what I see for this area.. Definitely one of the historic storms if everything verifies..

Josh

If you're going to make predictions like this, you really should be using the forum disclaimer.

Whoa there pard.. That is just reading the models.. I ain't predicting crap.. Nor will I ever..


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[SouthernMet]

6z NAM wetter around I-35 corridor again..

NWS went ahead an issued a Winter Storm Warning for the DFW area, and expanded the Watch.
May need an Ice Storm Warning when the Heavier Bands move through, if SREF/NAM solution verifes - the bullseye would be similar to what Orangeblood & Joshskeety having been saying.

It's going to be interesting to watch the HRRR as we get closer as it does a pretty decent job at sniffing out short range trends.

[TrekkerCC]

The DFW area (basically defined by the Winter Storm Watch from yesterday) is now under a Winter Storm Warning starting on Sunday Morning into Monday. It might be a very interesting 24 to 36 hours coming up. A summary of the changes is detailed in this Forecast Discussion. A more extensive forecast discussion will be forthcoming.

.DISCUSSION...

AN ACTUAL FORECAST DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED A BIT LATER THAN
NORMAL THIS MORNING...BUT FOR NOW WE WANTED TO AT LEAST GIVE AN
UPDATE REGARDING THE DECISIONS MADE OVERNIGHT REGARDING THE MUCH
ADVERTISED WINTER STORM EXPECTED TO IMPACT NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

WE HAVE DECIDED TO UPGRADE A LARGE PORTION OF THE WINTER STORM
WATCH TO A WINTER STORM WARNING...ESSENTIALLY LOCATIONS ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF A LAMPASAS TO DALLAS TO SHERMAN LINE WILL BE INCLUDED
IN A WINTER STORM WARNING SHORTLY. THE WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT
FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO NOON ON MONDAY.

A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED OR EXPANDED IN COVERAGE FOR
MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. THE WINTER STORM
WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM NOON ON SUNDAY TO NOON ON MONDAY FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM SHERMAN TO DALLAS TO
LAMPASAS.

MOST PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO FALL AS A COMBINATION OF SLEET
OR FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE WINTER STORM WARNING AND WATCH AREAS.

FOR THIS MORNING...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
LOCATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 35...NOT INCLUDING THE DFW
AREA...WACO OR TEMPLE. THIS IS FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN THAT IS
EXPECTED TO IMPACT LOCATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF MINERAL WELLS EARLY
THIS MORNING.

A TRUE FORECAST DISCUSSION IS FORTHCOMING...BUT THIS IS A SUMMARY
OF THE BIG FORECAST DECISIONS THAT WERE MADE OVERNIGHT.

CAVANAUGH

[srainhoutx]

Winter Storm Watch issued for Austin Metro and Winter Storm Warnings issued for Dallas/Ft Worth Metroplex for Sunday into Monday.

[gpsnowman]

I told my wife she might have to call off work Monday morning. From the looks of things it could be a disaster for the Monday commute. At least the kids are off school.

[Ntxw]

I told my wife she might have to call off work Monday morning. From the looks of things it could be a disaster for the Monday commute. At least the kids are off school.

This is good advice for many come Monday. It's not worth the risk and this is a pretty high confidence forecast of some sort of icing between either freezing rain, sleet, or snow. It has been relatively easy to model compared to the ups and down we usually go through GFS not withstanding. NAM and Euro have been very consistent.

Major early season winter storm is on the way for Texas. Winter 2013-2014 will deliver no matter how wxman57 tries to resist, winter of revenge.

[srainhoutx]

Keep an eye on the deepening short wave dropping S from Canada during the day into tomorrow as the U/L in S California/Arizona moves E across New Mexico and then turns SE across the Lubbock area and heads across Central/SE Texas late on Monday into Tuesday. The 03Z SREF as well as the 06Z HIRES NAM/NAM and the 00Z Euro have been steady with this solution for a couple of cycles. I would not be surprised to see Winter Weather Advisories hoisted for portions of SE and E Texas mainly N off I-10 later today if the trends continue. Also as the U/L/trough swings thru, there may be a chance of some light to moderate snow as the column cools sufficiently before the Winter precip ends late Monday into early Tuesday. It is concerning to see the QPF generation output via some of the guidance and the HPC/WPC did cut the QPF of the NAM almost in half to the .50/1.00 inch range as their in house blend suggests the QPF may be a bit to high. The fly in the ointment continues to be the Coastal Low development offshore of the Lower/Middle Texas Coast and if it will be far enough offshore to allow for the mid levels to sufficiently cool. Regardless this looks like a very messy and rather widespread event and is unseasonably early to see such an event for a large portion of Texas extending E into Arkansas and NW Louisiana. HGX is mentioning they may need to issue a Winter Weather Advisory of areas along and N of a Brenham/Conroe/Huntsville/Lake Livingston line later today or early tomorrow. It is also noteworthy that HGX is mentioning the possibility of snow/sleet/freezing rain into Metro Houston early on Tuesday as the upper low phases with the Northern stream as the precip begins to end. Right now no accumulation is expected. 1-2 inch rainfall amounts area expected as a strong short wave and the Coastal Low pass to our S.

[Kelarie]

Winter Storm Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
615 AM CST SAT NOV 23 2013

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM SUNDAY THROUGH 12 PM
MONDAY...

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>012-OKZ077-TXZ096-097-
108>112-124>126-136>138-149>151-241215-
/O.NEW.KSHV.WS.A.0001.131125T0000Z-131125T1800Z/
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-
COLUMBIA-UNION AR-CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN-
UNION LA-DE SOTO-RED RIVER-BIENVILLE-MCCURTAIN-BOWIE-FRANKLIN-
TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-UPSHUR-MARION-SMITH-GREGG-HARRISON-
CHEROKEE-RUSK-PANOLA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DE QUEEN...NASHVILLE...ASHDOWN...HOPE...
PRESCOTT...TEXARKANA...LEWISVILLE...MAGNOLIA...EL DORADO...
SHREVEPORT...BOSSIER CITY...MINDEN...HOMER...RUSTON...
FARMERVILLE...MANSFIELD...COUSHATTA...BIENVILLE...IDABEL...
CLARKSVILLE...MT VERNON...MT PLEASANT...PITTSBURG...
DAINGERFIELD...ATLANTA...QUITMAN...GILMER...JEFFERSON...TYLER...
LONGVIEW...MARSHALL...RUSK...HENDERSON...CARTHAGE
615 AM CST SAT NOV 23 2013

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.

* EVENT...MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE
REGION WITH FREEZING TO SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES IN PLACE. THIS
WILL LEAD TO FREEZING RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SLEET AND
SNOW...ACROSS THE WATCH AREA.

* TIMING...6 PM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH NOON ON MONDAY

* IMPACT...ICE ACCUMULATIONS NEAR ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. ICING WILL CAUSE DANGEROUS
TRAVEL CONDITIONS ON ELEVATED ROADWAYS SUCH AS BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES. IN ADDITION...POWER LINES AND TREES WILL BE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO ICING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.