Ok folks,here is the NOAA Winter outlook for all to see how things may unfold in the U.S this upcoming winter.
November 21, 2013
Winter is likely to offer little relief to the drought-stricken U.S. Southwest, and drought is likely to develop across parts of the Southeast as below-average precipitation is favored in these areas of the country, according to NOAA’s annual Winter Outlook announced today.
Drought has been an ongoing concern across parts of the Southwest and Texas for nearly three years, and after some relief during the past few months, drought is likely to redevelop during winter.
Sea surface temperatures across the equatorial Pacific have been near average since spring 2012, and forecasters expect that to continue through the winter. This means that neither El Niño nor La Niña is expected to influence the climate during the upcoming winter.
“It’s a challenge to produce a long-term winter forecast without the climate pattern of an El Niño or a La Niña in place out in the Pacific because those climate patterns often strongly influence winter temperature and precipitation here in the United States,” said Mike Halpert, acting director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “Without this strong seasonal influence, winter weather is often affected by short-term climate patterns, such as the Arctic Oscillation, that are not predictable beyond a week or two. So it’s important to pay attention to your local daily weather forecast throughout the winter.”
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories201 ... tlook.html
NOAA 2013-2014 Winter Outlook
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NOAA 2013-2014 Winter Outlook
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Re:
WeatherGuesser wrote:So, their forecast is no forecast?
Or am I missing something?
This about nails it. It might be colder up north and a little warmer down south, and everyone in between could see both!
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Re: Re:
Ntxw wrote:WeatherGuesser wrote:So, their forecast is no forecast?
Or am I missing something?
This about nails it. It might be colder up north and a little warmer down south, and everyone in between could see both!
Isn't this the usual scenario for winter in the U.S.?
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Audrey (1957), Carla (1961), Hilda (1964), Betsy (1965), Edith (1971), Carmen (1974), Danny (1985), Juan (1985), Andrew (1992), Lili (2002), Rita (2005), Gustav (2008), Ike (2008), and stuck in the eye of Iniki (1992) while vacationing in Kauai.
Not an official forecast by any means.
Not an official forecast by any means.
NOAA's forecast is in deep trouble at least for everywhere else but the northern plains. While this image is not for DJF, it has been the consistent pattern throughout the first month of the three, December. It would take a modestly mild January and February to overcome it. Between the hurricane season and this, they have had a head scratcher year!
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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Re:
Ntxw wrote:It would take a modestly mild January and February to overcome it.
Which is exactly what I'm hoping for. I've more than enough winter already thank you.
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