2013 WPAC Season

[euro6208]

https://www.facebook.com/notes/ks-weather-and-more/2013-cyclones-and-some-historical-trivia-updated/717613768253276

Are that stats in this page correct? According to this, the latest TSR forecast predicted a below-average season with a TOTAL of 42 tropical cyclones of TS intensity and above. He added 22(TS) + 13(TY) + 7 (major TY) for a total of 42. And according to her stats, the WPAC currently stands at 9 (TS) + 13 (TY) + 8 (major) for a total of 30 tropical cyclones of TS strength and above...which way below a below-average season for her. He is counting the numbers based on the peak intensity a storm had attained. I feel there is something not right.

TSR forecast uses 1 minute average but those stats are from JMA which uses 10 min average. alot of errors in that website too...

here is what it looks like in 1 min...

31 Storms.
27 tropical storms
16 typhoons
10 major typhoon

[euro6208]

GFS at it again showing a phantom storm developing after 300 hours south of Guam and a track to the west north west towards northern samar.

[euro6208]

GFS still showing an active pattern east of the philippines but very long range and euro doesn't show anything...

[euro6208]

Super long range (beyond 300 hours) still saying we might get 2 or 3 more storms in the philippine sea but it keeps getting pushed back...i will start believing it when it gets closer to 100 hours but for now...it's all fantasy

[mrbagyo]

[euro6208]

looks like we may have a strengthening mjo albeit weak but could potentially develop something...Season not yet over!

[euro6208]

strongest run yet showing 3 tropical cyclones with a formidable looking typhoon passing very near guam in december!

consistency is there that an active spell is likely...

[hurricanes1234]

991 mbar is only a tropical storm/minimal typhoon. I'm not sure if you were looking at another run.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

991 mbar is only a tropical storm/minimal typhoon. I'm not sure if you were looking at another run.

But GFS predicted to be about 940 mbar at landfall, it actually became <890 mbar.

[hurricanes1234]

991 mbar is only a tropical storm/minimal typhoon. I'm not sure if you were looking at another run.

But GFS predicted to be about 940 mbar at landfall, it actually became <890 mbar.

For the sake of the people in its path, I hope we don't see another Haiyan.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

991 mbar is only a tropical storm/minimal typhoon. I'm not sure if you were looking at another run.

But GFS predicted to be about 940 mbar at landfall, it actually became <890 mbar.

For the sake of the people in its path, I hope we don't see another Haiyan.

Diri[Dili] unta namon[namo] gusto hin[og] bagyo. Waray[Walay] upay[ayo]!

We do not want typhoons! Not good!

[dexterlabio]

This season may not be over after all. Long range GFS forecast continues to show a tropical cyclone (maybe a typhoon?) threatening Bicol and Visayas late November-1st week of December.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

This season may not be over after all. Long range GFS forecast continues to show a tropical cyclone (maybe a typhoon?) threatening Bicol and Visayas late November-1st week of December.

Moving straight west SLOWLY. AS A SUPER TYPHOON.

POSSIBLY OVER ABUYOG LEYTE.

[dexterlabio]

Nooooo Leyte again?? Though the track looks like more to Northern Samar than Leyte. I just checked the 06z GFS and it now shows 2 cyclones in the long range. The first one is the same phantom storm in the previous runs threatening Samar and Bicol. The run ends with the second system passing close to Guam.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Nooooo Leyte again?? Though the track looks like more to Northern Samar than Leyte. I just checked the 06z GFS and it now shows 2 cyclones in the long range. The first one is the same phantom storm in the previous runs threatening Samar and Bicol. The run ends with the second system passing close to Guam.

I meant [for the second storm] that because the STR is pushing it to the west, so SOUTHERN SAMAR and Leyte. And you can see the difference, the WSW jog from 348-384 hours.

[euro6208]

what a mess out there...

[euro6208]

Development looks like a reality now in the 189 hour range compared to a few days ago when it was showing development in fantasy land aka +300 hours...

It's getting closer

[dexterlabio]

still 2 cyclones shown in 06z GFS. But atmospheric conditions right now in the Philippine sea shouldn't be conducive for development of strong systems, right? Cool and dry air from the northeast monsoon is being felt even in Manila. And I heard typhoons are not fond of dry air. lol.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

still 2 cyclones shown in 06z GFS. But atmospheric conditions right now in the Philippine sea shouldn't be conducive for development of strong systems, right? Cool and dry air from the northeast monsoon is being felt even in Manila. And I heard typhoons are not fond of dry air. lol.

Well, the STR might push it south of the track [which has more favorable conditions] and is a good place [North Visayas has strong shear but South Visayas has weaker shear] but the sea surface temperatures over most of the West Pacific may be powering the storm[s].

But we are traumatized even if Super typhoon Haiyan was about 120 km to the north of us. It produced gusts of up to 130 km/h.
Here is an image on the decreasing shear [blue broken ''lines'' ].


Steering winds. By the way, what is that area of Vorticity ESE of Guam?


We hope to see our fellow countrymen rise again after a series of calamities - Typhoon Utor, Typhoon Nari, Bohol-Cebu earthquake-aftershocks, Manila floods and Typhoon Haiyan.

[euro6208]

Twin cyclone landfall, Northern Mindanao/Southern Visayas and Guam!

mmm got me thinking, could we witness another Super Typhoon Paka/Pongsona back in 1997 and 2002 which both damaged guam in december?