Texas Fall 2013

[Ntxw]

On the bright side, back to the 80s in Houston this weekend!

Short lived! I like the end of your graph. In fact the Euro looks even better. Drives it right through Mexico, even our friend RGV gets into the act



Your best friend this time of year is PAC jet and it's nowhere to be seen sir! Ridges!

[Rgv20]

12zECMWF and 0zGFS even forecast snow for the mountains of Mexico by around next Tuesday! Going to be interesting following the model trends for next week, right now it looks like a rather chilly week for Texas..

[NDG]

I wouldn't trust the ECMWF in its 6-10 day range, it has not been doing to well in the last couple of week, at least. It has either been over amplifying troughs or missing them all together.

[Ntxw]

Cold morning in Texas, everyone north of I-10 is either freezing or well into the 30s. Even the urban cities of the metroplex are going into the 20s. Coldest temperature I could find is 17 in Graham.

[gboudx]

27 here in northern Rockwall county.

[wxman57]

Terrible weather today. Would rather wake up to a low near 80. Plotted a 6Z GFS meteogram for Houston. The middle parts of the graphic don't look too bad. Don't like each end:

[Tireman4]

[quote="wxman57"]Terrible weather today. Would rather wake up to a low near 80. Plotted a 6Z GFS meteogram for Houston. The middle parts of the graphic don't look too bad. Don't like each end:

Notice, the first time you plotted the graph, the temperatures were in the 80's during the weekend. Now, they are 78-79. Humm....I am hoping for highs at 75...and next week...oh you will shiver.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Another big high making its way down next week. Should be interesting.

[wxman57]

Terrible weather today. Would rather wake up to a low near 80. Plotted a 6Z GFS meteogram for Houston. The middle parts of the graphic don't look too bad. Don't like each end:

Notice, the first time you plotted the graph, the temperatures were in the 80's during the weekend. Now, they are 78-79. Humm....I am hoping for highs at 75...and next week...oh you will shiver.

Good news, the latest GFS runs have temps here into the low 80s over the weekend and lows next week only down to 46-47.

[Tireman4]

Terrible weather today. Would rather wake up to a low near 80. Plotted a 6Z GFS meteogram for Houston. The middle parts of the graphic don't look too bad. Don't like each end:

Notice, the first time you plotted the graph, the temperatures were in the 80's during the weekend. Now, they are 78-79. Humm....I am hoping for highs at 75...and next week...oh you will shiver.

Good news, the latest GFS runs have temps here into the low 80s over the weekend and lows next week only down to 46-47.

Models change young sir. You never know. We cold lovers will have our day sir. We shall have our day.

[Rgv20]

The new 12zECMWF just loves to tease us! It has snow totals in North Texas from 4 to 8 inches starting late next Friday


Day 8


Day 9

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Just saw that. Thats a really cold model run. Where can i find a bit better graphic with moisture etc?

[Ntxw]

12z euro is just nuts. Lets just file that away for now. I do believe a winter storm will effect the southern plains during Thanksgiving week however as the AO and NAO will join the EPO and better blocking sets up.

[orangeblood]

Euro was showing the same system during yesterdays runs as well, Canadian starting to come in line and GFS slowly coming around....finally, let the winter weather model watching season begin

[Ntxw]

Euro was showing the same system during yesterdays runs as well, Canadian starting to come in line and GFS slowly coming around....finally, let the winter weather model watching season begin

Absolutely fantastic! That time of year where snow and cold is always on the long run of the models . We're gonna have to try to weed out what's likely and what's not. It's definitely going to get stormier as the 30 day SOI has averaged negative and believe or not there is a big burst of convection near the dateline. This is a very good signal for strengthening of the westerlies and incoming systems to the US as it will take 7-14 days for this sequence to arrive.

[Rgv20]

0zECMWF still entertaining the idea of some snow for North Texas and West Texas for late next week until the weekend..

0zGFS Ensemble Means are pretty cold between the period of Sunday Evening to Monday Evening..up to 10-11 C below normal!

[ouamber]

Hello my Texas friends to the South:) I occasionally follow your site, but I really like to follow winter weather. I live up in Tulsa, OK. I'm hearing rumors all over of a potential winter storm. Does anyone have the latest Euro map? Is this storm even possible considering how early it is? I used to live in Ardmore..near the OK/TX line and I remember a couple of ice storms in the 90s around Thanksgiving but this seems kind of rare. Anyway, thanks for all your insights:) You are awesome!!!:)

[orangeblood]

The overnight Euro continued its consistency showing a massive winter storm over the southern plains late next week, pretty remarkable considering its the middle of november....Euro snowfall forecast over the next 10 days

[Ntxw]

Well when you're showing a 1052 high on the US-Canadian border kinda hard not to put down cold and snow

[ndale]

The gfs for the past few days has shown snow off and on for north Tx almost down to central Tx around Thanksgiving week. It will show on one run only to take it away on the next, then bring it back a couple of runs later and then take it away again. At this point I know the models can't get a true picture of what will happen this far out but it does make you wonder if something is brewing.