WPAC: HAIYAN - Post-Tropical

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I don't know why it's unusually calm here...

[euro6208]

THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON RECENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES INDICATING AN INTENSITY NEAR 170 KNOTS.

Why don’t they just give 170 knots?

Yeah because 165kt is the highest intensity a tropical cyclone can get according to agencies

Any number beyond that will be considered as unreliable(ex. Nancy)

or ignored...get recon here, the rules will change...

[euro6208]

can you imagine the calmness in the eye and right outside, +190 mph sustained with gust 230 mph howling winds coming to you?

[Meow]

The third bulletin of T/CI8.0!

TPPN12 PGTW 071518

A. SUPER TYPHOON 31W (HAIYAN)

B. 07/1430Z

C. 10.4N

D. 128.0E

E. TWO/MTSAT

F. T8.0/8.0/D0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 01A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG YIELDS
AN E# OF 6.5. ADDED 1.0 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A DT OF
7.5. MET YIELDS 8.0. PT YIELDS 6.5. DBO MET.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
07/0932Z 9.8N 130.0E SSMS
07/1100Z 10.1N 129.3E SSMS
07/1215Z 10.2N 128.8E MMHS
07/1301Z 10.2N 128.6E MMHS


UEHARA

[cycloneye]

Philippines population density:

[CrazyC83]

Philippines population density:

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/c ... ensity.png

A lot more densely populated than the areas hit by the core of Bopha or Megi...

[Alyono]

If anything, this has exceeded an 8.0 now

[CrazyC83]

If anything, this has exceeded an 8.0 now

Could they just give a T8.5 if they wanted to if it broke the constraints?

[TheEuropean]

What may be the central pressure of Haiyan? "Tip" in 1979 had 870 mb, may be again near this record?

[CrazyC83]

What may be the central pressure of Haiyan? "Tip" in 1979 had 870 mb, may be again near this record?

My guess is about 895-905mb. Probably higher than the intensity would suggest (think Andrew, Felix or Dean before the ERC) due to the low latitude and ridge directly to the north.

Tip was an enormous storm, even while a Cat 5 (but the record size was afterward), in an area of lower environmental pressure.

[euro6208]

What may be the central pressure of Haiyan? "Tip" in 1979 had 870 mb, may be again near this record?

My guess is about 895-905mb. Probably higher than the intensity would suggest (think Andrew, Felix or Dean before the ERC) due to the low latitude and ridge directly to the north.

Tip was an enormous storm, even while a Cat 5 (but the record size was afterward), in an area of lower environmental pressure.

well my guess is somewhere between 850 to 880 mb...due to the fact that haiyan is way smaller than tip...

What fascinates me is how long it has managed to not only maintain Cat 5 intensity, but to just keep strengthening. wow

[Alyono]

What may be the central pressure of Haiyan? "Tip" in 1979 had 870 mb, may be again near this record?

My guess is about 895-905mb. Probably higher than the intensity would suggest (think Andrew, Felix or Dean before the ERC) due to the low latitude and ridge directly to the north.

Tip was an enormous storm, even while a Cat 5 (but the record size was afterward), in an area of lower environmental pressure.

well my guess is somewhere between 850 to 880 mb...due to the fact that haiyan is way smaller than tip...

What fascinates me is how long it has managed to not only maintain Cat 5 intensity, but to just keep strengthening. wow

probably in the 885 - 890 range based upon Megi

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Link to the JTWC ATCF data please?

[CrazyC83]

Posted by @RyanMaue on Twitter:



Megi vs. Haiyan. No comparison.

[euro6208]

Posted by @RyanMaue on Twitter:



Megi vs. Haiyan. No comparison.

WOW!

Megi -175 knots
Haiyan- 165 knots...

and to think recon had 175 knots for megi...how much stronger is haiyan?

[supercane4867]

SSD also keeps T8.0


TXPQ25 KNES 071551
TCSWNP
A. 31W (HAIYAN)
B. 07/1430Z
C. 10.4N
D. 128.0E
E. ONE/MTSAT
F. T8.0/8.0/D0.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS...SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED SLIGHTLY OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS
BASED ON A 19C EYE THAT IS MORE CIRCULAR AND EMBEDDED IN CDG BY AT
LEAST 1 DEGREE. THIS RESULTS IN A MET THAT IS 8.0. WMG EYE IS EMBEDDED
IN CDG WHICH RESULTS IN A DT OF 7.5 AFTER 1.0 IS ADDED AS AN EYE
ADJUSTMENT. THERE IS A VERY COLD BANDING FEATURE IN ADVANCE OF THE
CENTRAL FEATURE BUT THE WARM EDGE BETWEEN THE TWO IS TECHNICALLY TOO
COLD TO ADD FOR BF. DT IS DISCOUNTED BECAUSE DVORAK TECHNIQUE MAKES
NO ALLOWANCE FOR AN EYE EMBEDDED SO DEEPLY IN CLOUD TOPS AS COLD AS
CDG. FURTHERMORE ADT V8.1.4 CURRENT INTENSITIES HAVE BEEN 8.0 SINCE
1230Z. FT IS BASED ON MET FOR THESE REASONS.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...TURK


Insane

2013NOV07 123000 8.0 862.2 +4.2 170.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 17.96 -84.64 EYE
2013NOV07 125700 8.0 862.2 +4.2 170.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 18.60 -84.75 EYE
2013NOV07 133000 8.0 862.2 +4.2 170.0 7.9 7.9 7.9 NO LIMIT ON OFF 18.49 -83.39 EYE
2013NOV07 135700 8.0 862.2 +4.2 170.0 7.9 8.0 8.0 NO LIMIT ON OFF 18.07 -84.71 EYE
2013NOV07 143000 8.0 862.2 +4.2 170.0 7.9 8.0 8.0 NO LIMIT ON OFF 19.23 -84.70 EYE
2013NOV07 145700 8.0 862.2 +4.2 170.0 7.9 8.0 8.0 NO LIMIT ON OFF 20.17 -83.65 EYE

[mrbagyo]

the best comparison I guess is typhoon Nida of 2009

but I will still pick Haiyan over Nida.

[supercane4867]

Posted by @RyanMaue on Twitter:



Megi vs. Haiyan. No comparison.

WOW!

Megi -175 knots
Haiyan- 165 knots...

and to think recon had 175 knots for megi...how much stronger is haiyan?

JTWC had Megi at 160 knots

No hype please.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Posted by @RyanMaue on Twitter:



Megi vs. Haiyan. No comparison.

WOW!

Megi -175 knots
Haiyan- 165 knots...

and to think recon had 175 knots for megi...how much stronger is haiyan?

I don't want it any stronger!

[cycloneye]

There is the eye. PAGASA Facebook page