WPAC: HAIYAN - Post-Tropical

[mrbagyo]

Can you post the JTWC's prognostic reasoning... I cant access the JT's website.

[stormstrike]

To put the expected winds in perspective.. remember the Moore tornado? That is the wind you will see. Can your house withstand that?

Honestly, I don't know. This is our first super typhoon in how many years of staying here.

I'm just thankful the electricity is still on.. lol

but the winds now.. seriously it's like Son-Tinh last year.

Maybe this will answer your question. Here are dmage photos from the Moore tornado

http://www.theatlantic.com/infocus/2013 ... ma/100518/

what the heck??!? isn't that too much damage??????

seriously?!?! most of the houses here are not made of concrete.

oh no...........

[Gorky]

Comparing to an EF5 tornado isn't that accurate really. Tornadoes have very quick changes in wind speed and direction. As small scale vortices pass over a building, they hit it from almost every angle and can cause structural failure in walls which would otherwise survive sustained winds from one direction. Tornadoes tend to be more debris filled and that plays a huge part also. Regardless of this, you would not want to be in a wood framed house with this bearing down on you. Find a concrete structure with a decent roof and hunker down. That church does not look safe at all!

[euro6208]

165 knot Super Typhoon!

WDPN33 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 31W (HAIYAN) WARNING NR
18//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON 31W (HAIYAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 543 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
22 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) REVEALS STY 31W HAS MAINTAINED A SHARPLY DEFINED EYE WITH
MULTIPLE CONCENTRIC RINGS AND A DEEP CONVECTIVE EYEWALL. A 071100Z
SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A STRONG FEEDER BAND WRAPPING ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM AS WELL AS A DARK RING OF DEEP
CONVECTION OUTLINING THE COLD CLOUD-TOP TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE EYEWALL.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE EIR ANIMATION
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON RECENT DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES INDICATING AN INTENSITY NEAR 170 KNOTS. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ALONG THE TRACK REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE
PROVIDING AMPLE SURFACE HEATING, SUPPORTING THE SUPER TYPHOON INTENSITY
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW (05 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. STY 31W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR), WHICH IS ENTRENCHED TO THE
NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. STY 31W IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK ALONG
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE STR, SHIFTING TO A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK BY
TAU 48. DUE TO THE EXTREMELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND
RECENT INTENSIFICATION, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT SUPER
TYPHOON INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LANDFALL WITH THE PHILIPPINES
IS ANTICIPATED NEAR TAU 12 AND WILL START TO IMPACT THE LOW LEVEL
INFLOW, LEADING TO A SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND THROUGH TAU 72. STY 31W WILL
TRACK INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS) WHERE SSTS BEGIN TO SLOWLY DECREASE,
AND SUBSEQUENTLY THE SURFACE HEAT POTENTIAL WILL NOT SUPPORT THE STRONGER
SUPER TYPHOON INTENSITIES.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, STY 31W IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AFTER TAU
72 AS IT BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER LAND, WHICH WILL LEAD TO A MORE RAPID
WEAKENING OF THE LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED TAUS AND ARE BEGINNING TO INDICATE A
RECURVE SCENARIO AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER NORTHERN VIETNAM AND INTO
SOUTHERN CHINA; THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST.//
NNNN

[stormstrike]

We're in a concrete structure.. but I think we're not in a high-elevated area because we're usually flooded. Oh God. I hope you're wrong with that "like a tsunami".

Do you mean you usually get rainwater flooding, or seawater flooding? Both types of flooding will be tremendous with this storm. How far are you from the ocean or river?

rainwater flooding.. and thankfully we're far from the sea or river...

[Extratropical94]

Can you post the JTWC's prognostic reasoning... I cant access the JT's website.

Here you go.

WDPN33 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 31W (HAIYAN) WARNING NR
18//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON 31W (HAIYAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 543 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
22 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) REVEALS STY 31W HAS MAINTAINED A SHARPLY DEFINED EYE WITH
MULTIPLE CONCENTRIC RINGS AND A DEEP CONVECTIVE EYEWALL. A 071100Z
SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A STRONG FEEDER BAND WRAPPING ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM AS WELL AS A DARK RING OF DEEP
CONVECTION OUTLINING THE COLD CLOUD-TOP TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE EYEWALL.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE EIR ANIMATION
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON RECENT DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES INDICATING AN INTENSITY NEAR 170 KNOTS. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ALONG THE TRACK REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE
PROVIDING AMPLE SURFACE HEATING, SUPPORTING THE SUPER TYPHOON INTENSITY
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW (05 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. STY 31W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR), WHICH IS ENTRENCHED TO THE
NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. STY 31W IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK ALONG
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE STR, SHIFTING TO A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK BY
TAU 48. DUE TO THE EXTREMELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND
RECENT INTENSIFICATION, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT SUPER
TYPHOON INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LANDFALL WITH THE PHILIPPINES
IS ANTICIPATED NEAR TAU 12 AND WILL START TO IMPACT THE LOW LEVEL
INFLOW, LEADING TO A SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND THROUGH TAU 72. STY 31W WILL
TRACK INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS) WHERE SSTS BEGIN TO SLOWLY DECREASE,
AND SUBSEQUENTLY THE SURFACE HEAT POTENTIAL WILL NOT SUPPORT THE STRONGER
SUPER TYPHOON INTENSITIES.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, STY 31W IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AFTER TAU
72 AS IT BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER LAND, WHICH WILL LEAD TO A MORE RAPID
WEAKENING OF THE LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED TAUS AND ARE BEGINNING TO INDICATE A
RECURVE SCENARIO AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER NORTHERN VIETNAM AND INTO
SOUTHERN CHINA; THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST.//
NNNN

[hriverajr]

My wife's family is located in the mountains outside BayBay Letye. I sure hope they serve as some protection against the wind. I'm really worried. At the very least we will lose communications with them for some time.

[euro6208]

huge band right over samar, leyte and slowly moving to cebu! rapidly deteriorating conditions !

[Alyono]

Comparing to an EF5 tornado isn't that accurate really. Tornadoes have very quick changes in wind speed and direction. As small scale vortices pass over a building, they hit it from almost every angle and can cause structural failure in walls which would otherwise survive sustained winds from one direction. Tornadoes tend to be more debris filled and that plays a huge part also. Regardless of this, you would not want to be in a wood framed house with this bearing down on you. Find a concrete structure with a decent roof and hunker down. That church does not look safe at all!

It IS good comparison as Dr. Fujita found mini vortices embedded within hurricane eyewalls. He observed this in Andrew in 1992

[xtyphooncyclonex]

http://i.imgur.com/Yy42W9A.jpg

huge band right over samar, leyte and slowly moving to cebu! rapidly deteriorating conditions !

Rains are continuing in Cebu, but are more steady. We will prepare for STY Mike part 2!

[mrbagyo]

Can you post the JTWC's prognostic reasoning... I cant access the JT's website.

Here you go.

WDPN33 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 31W (HAIYAN) WARNING NR
18//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON 31W (HAIYAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 543 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
22 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) REVEALS STY 31W HAS MAINTAINED A SHARPLY DEFINED EYE WITH
MULTIPLE CONCENTRIC RINGS AND A DEEP CONVECTIVE EYEWALL. A 071100Z
SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A STRONG FEEDER BAND WRAPPING ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM AS WELL AS A DARK RING OF DEEP
CONVECTION OUTLINING THE COLD CLOUD-TOP TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE EYEWALL.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE EIR ANIMATION
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON RECENT DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES INDICATING AN INTENSITY NEAR 170 KNOTS. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ALONG THE TRACK REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE
PROVIDING AMPLE SURFACE HEATING, SUPPORTING THE SUPER TYPHOON INTENSITY
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW (05 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. STY 31W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR), WHICH IS ENTRENCHED TO THE
NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. STY 31W IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK ALONG
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE STR, SHIFTING TO A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK BY
TAU 48. DUE TO THE EXTREMELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND
RECENT INTENSIFICATION, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT SUPER
TYPHOON INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LANDFALL WITH THE PHILIPPINES
IS ANTICIPATED NEAR TAU 12 AND WILL START TO IMPACT THE LOW LEVEL
INFLOW, LEADING TO A SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND THROUGH TAU 72. STY 31W WILL
TRACK INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS) WHERE SSTS BEGIN TO SLOWLY DECREASE,
AND SUBSEQUENTLY THE SURFACE HEAT POTENTIAL WILL NOT SUPPORT THE STRONGER
SUPER TYPHOON INTENSITIES.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, STY 31W IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AFTER TAU
72 AS IT BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER LAND, WHICH WILL LEAD TO A MORE RAPID
WEAKENING OF THE LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED TAUS AND ARE BEGINNING TO INDICATE A
RECURVE SCENARIO AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER NORTHERN VIETNAM AND INTO
SOUTHERN CHINA; THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST.//
NNNN

thanks... 170 knots is a dizzying figure...
less than a year after Bopha and here we go again. another potential cat 5 landfall...

[Meow]

THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON RECENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES INDICATING AN INTENSITY NEAR 170 KNOTS.

Why don’t they just give 170 knots?

[euro6208]

what the heck??!? isn't that too much damage??????

seriously?!?! most of the houses here are not made of concrete.

oh no...........

wow...you must get out of there...this is really a bad situation....tell the whole neighborhood to evacuate...

[wxman57]

Note that any speculation about storm surge height is just that - speculation. I'm not aware of any studies of bathymetry surrounding the islands in the Philippines so that the data could be incorporated into a storm surge model. Typically, islands that have a sharp increase in water depth just offshore will not be as vulnerable to storm surge. That is, the surge won't be as high. A hurricane striking the mid Louisiana coast, for example, would produce 3 times the storm surge of that same storm if it struck the Florida panhandle, and even less surge would occur in SE Florida.

Not knowing how quickly the water depth increases off the coasts of the Philippine Islands, we can't say how high the surge might be. I'm thinking that the islands would not be nearly as surge-prone as, say, the northern Bay of Bengal or the Louisiana/Mississippi coasts.

[euro6208]

WHAT THE...!!!!

I can't believe what I'm seeing, 165 kt? when was the last time that there was such a strong tropical cyclone in the world?
I'm still in shock, it looks perfect on satellite images. I wish we would have recon in the WPAC.
My prayers and best wishes are with those among the path of this monster.

last time was in 2010...Super Typhoon Megi peaked at 175 knots...Recon confirmed this...

Haiyan has higher numbers...8.0! so i wouldn't be surprised if this is stronger but we don't have recon to confirm!

[mrbagyo]

thank goodness- the radars are working

Hinatuan Radar
Cebu radar

[supercane4867]

Typhoon of the Century

[somethingfunny]

Note that any speculation about storm surge height is just that - speculation. I'm not aware of any studies of bathymetry surrounding the islands in the Philippines so that the data could be incorporated into a storm surge model. Typically, islands that have a sharp increase in water depth just offshore will not be as vulnerable to storm surge. That is, the surge won't be as high. A hurricane striking the mid Louisiana coast, for example, would produce 3 times the storm surge of that same storm if it struck the Florida panhandle, and even less surge would occur in SE Florida.

Not knowing how quickly the water depth increases off the coasts of the Philippine Islands, we can't say how high the surge might be. I'm thinking that the islands would not be nearly as surge-prone as, say, the northern Bay of Bengal or the Louisiana/Mississippi coasts.

Leyte Gulf is a fairly shallow fetch of water that funnels into Tacloban City. I think the surge would be quite high if the eye squeezes south of the Guiuan Peninsula.

[supercane4867]

THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON RECENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES INDICATING AN INTENSITY NEAR 170 KNOTS.

Why don’t they just give 170 knots?

Yeah because 165kt is the highest intensity a tropical cyclone can get according to agencies

Any number beyond that will be considered as unreliable(ex. Nancy)

[Gorky]

Comparing to an EF5 tornado isn't that accurate really. Tornadoes have very quick changes in wind speed and direction. As small scale vortices pass over a building, they hit it from almost every angle and can cause structural failure in walls which would otherwise survive sustained winds from one direction. Tornadoes tend to be more debris filled and that plays a huge part also. Regardless of this, you would not want to be in a wood framed house with this bearing down on you. Find a concrete structure with a decent roof and hunker down. That church does not look safe at all!

It IS good comparison as Dr. Fujita found mini vortices embedded within hurricane eyewalls. He observed this in Andrew in 1992

My mistake, I was aware of the vortex study within Andrew but it was a bit before my time (I was 10 when that hit although I remember it vividly as we'd only just returned form Florida). I thought they were larger scale vortices within the eye wall rather than the smaller scale ones you find in multivortex tornados and rapid changes in wind direction were less of an issue. Either way, I agree that wood framed buildings need to be evacuated to sturdy shelter. I wouldn't want people to unnecessarily try to the flee the area and jam up roads based on the idea that entire areas will be wiped clean like in Moore/Joplin whilst conditions are already deteriorating. Panicking won't help anybody and the posting of worst case damage from the strongest tornado of the year isn't going to help people make rational decisions