WPAC: HAIYAN - Post-Tropical

[stormkite]

You tend to see a lot of post's quoting i wish we had recon. Given a typhoon can can change in intensity by the hour either up or down what are the odds of recon getting true wind speed reading's in the full life time of a typhoon my guess is 0.



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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[ozonepete]

When it comes to evaluating tropical cyclone, people always praise the new and forget the past ones

Yes, in this area there are so many terrible category 4 and 5 tropical cyclones that it's often hard to sort them out. Each one has its own particular violence depending on its strength, where it makes landfall and at what angle. Some category 3 storms there have wreaked much more violence than much stronger typhoons. I just hope everyone there in the central Philippines is aware of what's coming and is taking the proper precautions. This one is going to be high up on the list of very bad typhoons there. The difference in strength of this one from stronger typhoons of the past may not make much difference this time, especially because the ground has been saturated with rain from the previous typhoon, making it much easier for trees and buildings to come down in this very fierce typhoon.

[ozonepete]

It's quite windy here and it's dark!

It's already 1:00 pm.

Wow, you are going to get hammered, but luckily you will be on the south side, the weaker side, of the eye. Anyone close to the north of the eye or of course in the eye is going to have a terrible experience. Please play it safe and find a really strong, concrete and steel building and stay away from windows. Good luck to you.

But typhoon-force winds expected? Worse than Frank of 2008 - We had strong winds and it was cat 1 typhoon.

Some sources here say that we will have over 60 millimeters of rain in three hours!

It's starting to rain here!

Ok, my friend, don't panic, just be prepared. Yes, you should have typhoon force winds there but no matter how strong they are just make sure you are in a secure building on the second floor or higher above the ground. When the winds get high stay away from the windows that face the wind. Good luck and don't go outside to check on conditions until the winds have died down considerably.

[stormstrike]

Haiyan is moving steadily now.. it's now a little bit higher than the forecast line track of JTWC..

It's quite windy here and it's dark!

It's already 1:00 pm.

Wow, you are going to get hammered, but luckily you will be on the south side, the weaker side, of the eye. Anyone close to the north of the eye or of course in the eye is going to have a terrible experience. Please play it safe and find a really strong, concrete and steel building and stay away from windows. Good luck to you.

Sounds scary.. we're now in Signal #3..and it's quite gloomy out here.. Signal #4 is imminent..

[supercane4867]

You tend to see a lot of post's quoting i wish we had recon. Given a typhoon can can change in intensity by the hour either up or down what are the odds of recon getting true wind speed reading's in the full life time of a typhoon my guess is 0.

There were also many hurricanes in the Atlantic undergo constant fluctuation on intensity(Ex. Ivan,Isabel) and recon can still provide full coverage of the storm

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Making another westerly turn again. I guess the track might shift farther south.


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[dexterlabio]

[/url]

Best cyclone of the century. WOAH! [/quote]

I don't know if you are panicking or getting exciting about this. lol just kidding. It definitely looks good and as they say, looks can kill.


I don't know but for me this pars with Megi for the most intense-looking typhoon since Angela of 1995.

[ManilaTC]

Making another westerly turn again. I guess the track might shift farther south.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I do not think its moving on a more westerly direction.
It has been consistent since 4:30 am to move WNW minus +0.1deg North/-0.3deg East

Its a 0.5 degree wide eye!
Huge. Enough to cover half of leyte and the areas around its eyewall.

[PaulR]

Let's all pray for the vortex to disintegrate.About now would be nice.

I'll "ditto" that thought. Though the relatives are in Ormoc City, the idea that the northern eyewall might come right up the Leyte Gulf into Tacloban City is really frightening. And I'm not so sure that Ormoc City might not be as bad or worse off with such a track, getting a surge pushed up into Ormoc Bay from the south as the storm passes, with no "blockage" from the mountains?

A lot of electrical power is generated in the Ormoc area and widely distributed -- if most or all the transmission lines go down (likely) then the effects will be far reaching. When just one major transmisssion line went down in the 2009 ice storm in W. KY (along with a myriad of smaller lines), it was big trouble -- granted that it happened in mid-winter and an extended period of cold temps followed.

[dexterlabio]

Just beware of eye wobbles.

[stormstrike]

Making another westerly turn again. I guess the track might shift farther south.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I do not think its moving on a more westerly direction.
It has been consistent since 4:30 am to move WNW minus +0.1deg North/-0.3deg East

Its a 0.5 degree wide eye!
Huge. Enough to cover half of leyte and the areas around its eyewall.

I agree.. I don't see a westerly jog as of latest loop...

[dexterlabio]

^If there was a westerly jog, it may be just a wobble. A core this intense tend to go wobbly but those wobbles don't mean a change in general direction.

[supercane4867]

No comment

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Just beware of eye wobbles.

So, what's the chance of the eyewall hitting my place?

[stormkite]

You tend to see a lot of post's quoting i wish we had recon. Given a typhoon can can change in intensity by the hour either up or down what are the odds of recon getting true wind speed reading's in the full life time of a typhoon my guess is 0.

There were also many hurricanes in the Atlantic undergo constant fluctuation on intensity(Ex. Ivan,Isabel) and recon can still provide full coverage of the storm

You tend to see a lot of post's quoting i wish we had recon. Given a typhoon can can change in intensity by the hour either up or down what are the odds of recon getting true wind speed reading's in the full life time of a typhoon my guess is 0.

There were also many hurricanes in the Atlantic undergo constant fluctuation on intensity(Ex. Ivan,Isabel) and recon can still provide full coverage of the storm

Well that's really interesting how do they keep a dropsonde in the storm for every hour of it's life time if the storm is just say 4 days into its life that would mean the recon is is in the air for that full period flying the apex points that's would be 96 hour's fight time non-stop?

[stormkite]

You tend to see a lot of post's quoting i wish we had recon. Given a typhoon can can change in intensity by the hour either up or down what are the odds of recon getting true wind speed reading's in the full life time of a typhoon my guess is 0.

There were also many hurricanes in the Atlantic undergo constant fluctuation on intensity(Ex. Ivan,Isabel) and recon can still provide full coverage of the storm

You tend to see a lot of post's quoting i wish we had recon. Given a typhoon can can change in intensity by the hour either up or down what are the odds of recon getting true wind speed reading's in the full life time of a typhoon my guess is 0.

There were also many hurricanes in the Atlantic undergo constant fluctuation on intensity(Ex. Ivan,Isabel) and recon can still provide full coverage of the storm

You tend to see a lot of post's quoting i wish we had recon. Given a typhoon can can change in intensity by the hour either up or down what are the odds of recon getting true wind speed reading's in the full life time of a typhoon my guess is 0.

There were also many hurricanes in the Atlantic undergo constant fluctuation on intensity(Ex. Ivan,Isabel) and recon can still provide full coverage of the storm

Well that's really interesting how do they keep a dropsonde in the storm for every hour of it's life time if the storm is just say 4 days into its life that would mean the recon is is in the air for that full period flying the apex points that's would be 96 hour's fight time non-stop?

[stormkite]

You tend to see a lot of post's quoting i wish we had recon. Given a typhoon can can change in intensity by the hour either up or down what are the odds of recon getting true wind speed reading's in the full life time of a typhoon my guess is 0.

There were also many hurricanes in the Atlantic undergo constant fluctuation on intensity(Ex. Ivan,Isabel) and recon can still provide full coverage of the storm

Well that's really interesting how do they keep a dropsonde in the storm for every hour of it's life time if the storm is just say 4 days into its life that would mean the recon is in the air for that full period flying the apex points that's would be 96 hour's fight time non-stop?

[euro6208]

impressive -90 cloud tops have once again connected and now surrounds the eye...also note that large convective band to it's northwest deepening and trying to wrap into the center...we may see another round of intensification...

[supercane4867]

TPPN12 PGTW 070312

A. SUPER TYPHOON 31W (HAIYAN)

B. 07/0230Z

C. 8.9N

D. 131.9E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T7.5/7.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 03A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. WMG SURROUNDED BY CMG (+1.0 CMG)
YIELDS A DT OF 7.5. MET WAS 8.0; PT WAS 6.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


LONG

[xtyphooncyclonex]

That's what you call dangerous here!