WPAC: HAIYAN - Post-Tropical

[dexterlabio]

Stormstrike, there's a rainfall warning in your place I heard. Yellow alert? Just check it on PAGASA's webpage. And I think it's really happening, that outerband extending from the core is already affecting Eastern Visayas.

[hurricanes1234]

Of course, Best Track is staying with 150 knots. In a sense, this is like previous Category 5s this year, where they kept the same 140 knots/918 mbar for most of them, even when estimates were supporting much higher winds for some. I don't have much expertice, but I think it should be at least 155 knots, considering current estimates go all the way up to 160-165 knots, and the satellite presentation seems to be better than a few hours ago. Again I reiterate that this is just my ameteur opinion.

[Ntxw]

Just hypnotizing and scary. Definitely very Bopha-esque.

[hurricanes1234]

This typhoon has a spectacular symmetry, I've never seen anything like it before, even Sanba last year didn't look as good as this does, in my opinion. I am at a loss for further words...

[ronjon]

What a freak of nature - almost the perfect tropical cyclone. What a path of destruction this storm will cause. After the Phillipines, its forecast to plow into Vietnam, although weaker by then.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/31W/flash-avn-long.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/31W/flash-vis-long.html

[redisol]

How will flood-weary Metro Manila be affected by theis monster?

[dexterlabio]

^tropical storm-force winds if forecasts verify. Rain is another thing though. Will check.

[hurricanes1234]

Amazing is all I have to say!!!!

[stormstrike]

Is Haiyan's eye filling in? Is it weakening? Its eye right now is not as clear as previous sat images.

[euro6208]

Good Morning Guys...

Stunning 150 knots Super Typhoon approaching the philippines...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Steering winds are making Haiyan push northwest then southwest. Unusual for a super typhoon like this!

My track: Passing near Abuyog, Leyte then Ormoc. Afterwards, turning west-southwesterly before making landfall over Cebu as a weakening super typhoon. Afterwards, Haiyan will pass south of Bacolod then Antique. After, it will turn westerly.



I guess Metro Cebu will have typhoon-force winds.


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[Teddyfred]

Is Haiyan's eye filling in? Is it weakening? Its eye right now is not as clear as previous sat images.

Looks perfectly clear to me. Actually I believe it's just finished an EWRC. Seems like it's strengthened since sunrise.

[euro6208]

It may even be stronger with all that data. T7.7 supports about 165 kt.

I agree. But I think JTWC may leave it at 150 knots for the next advisory, and if anything, drop the pressure slightly, since anything above this would be an extreme anomaly for an official bulletin. What is everyone else's opinion on intensity?

a good estimate is 155 KT and it may peak even higher since the EWRC has finished

Dvorak consistently showing 7.5 and ADT at 160 knots...

The winds should have time to catch up therefore i think a good estimate for peak is 165 - 170 knots sustained...Pressure likely sub 900...

Remember Megi when recon found 175 knots ? Well this is even more impressive...

[dexterlabio]

Dry spot around the eye again. There are hints of another EWRC, though it could be as swift and neat as it did previously. The cycle was almost unnoticeable in satellite imagery. I feel another EWRC will just cause an expansion of the strongest winds. Those filling in the eye might be mesovortices, and they are usual for a cyclone this intense. But the eye still looks clean to me.

[euro6208]

976
WTPQ33 PGUM 070123
TCPPQ3

BULLETIN
SUPER TYPHOON HAIYAN (31W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP312013
1100 AM CHST THU NOV 7 2013

...SUPER TYPHOON HAIYAN MOVING STEADILY AWAY FROM PALAU...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

THE TYPHOON WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELED FOR KAYANGEL AND KOROR IN THE
REPUBLIC OF PALAU. TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED.

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...8.6N 132.8E

ABOUT 365 MILES WEST OF YAP
ABOUT 135 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF KAYANGEL
ABOUT 140 MILES NORTHWEST OF KOROR

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175 MPH.
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 1000 AM CHST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF SUPER TYPHOON HAIYAN WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 8.6 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 132.8
EAST.

SUPER TYPHOON HAIYAN IS MOVING WEST AT 21 MPH. HAIYAN IS EXPECTED TO
TURN SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WHILE MAINTAINING ITS
FORWARD SPEED THROUGH TONIGHT. HAIYAN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE STEADILY
AWAY FROM KOROR AND KAYANGEL THROUGH TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN 175 MPH. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 145 MILES FROM THE CENTER. SUPER TYPHOON HAIYAN WILL REMAIN
NEAR THIS INTENSITY BUT COULD WEAKEN SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 PM.

$$

WILLIAMS


WDPN33 PGTW 070300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 31W (HAIYAN) WARNING NR
16//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON 31W (HAIYAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 123 NM
NORTHWEST OF
KOROR, PALAU, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS STY
31W HAS MAINTAINED THE DEEP CONVECTIVE EYEWALL, WITH DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD MAINTAINING THE CURRENT
INTENSITY AT 150 KNOTS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ALONG THE
TRACK REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE PROVIDING AMPLE SURFACE HEATING,
SUPPORTING THE SUPER TYPHOON INTENSITY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH NEAR-
RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW (05 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. STY 31W
IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR), WHICH IS ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. STY 31W IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A WESTWARD TRACK ALONG THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE STR, SHIFTING TO A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK BY
TAU 72. DUE TO VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT SUPER TYPHOON INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. LANDFALL WITH THE PHILIPPINES IS ANTICIPATED AROUND TAU 24
AND WILL START TO IMPACT THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW, LEADING TO A SLIGHT
WEAKENING TREND THROUGH TAU 72. STY 31W WILL TRACK INTO THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA (SCS) WHERE SSTS BEGIN TO SLOWLY DECREASE, AND
SUBSEQUENTLY THE SURFACE HEAT POTENTIAL WILL NOT SUPPORT THE
STRONGER SUPER TYPHOON INTENSITIES.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, STY 31W IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AFTER TAU
72 AS IT TRACKS OVER MARGINAL SSTS IN THE WESTERN SCS AND BEGINS TO
ENCOUNTER LAND, MAKING LANDFALL SHORTLY BEFORE TAU 96, WHICH WILL
LEAD TO A MORE RAPID WEAKENING OF THE LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE AS THE
SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE CENTRAL REGION OF SOUTHEASTERN ASIA. DYNAMIC
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED TAUS,
THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.//
NNNN

[stormstrike]

Dry spot around the eye again. There are hints of another EWRC, though it could be as swift and neat as it did previously. The cycle was almost unnoticeable in satellite imagery. I feel another EWRC will just cause an expansion of the strongest winds. Those filling in the eye might be mesovortices, and they are usual for a cyclone this intense. But the eye still looks clean to me.

Oh...I thought it's weakening.. oh well...this would really be the strongest typhoon that I would ever experience..

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Dry spot around the eye again. There are hints of another EWRC, though it could be as swift and neat as it did previously. The cycle was almost unnoticeable in satellite imagery. I feel another EWRC will just cause an expansion of the strongest winds. Those filling in the eye might be mesovortices, and they are usual for a cyclone this intense. But the eye still looks clean to me.

Oh...I thought it's weakening.. oh well...this would really be the strongest typhoon that I would ever experience..

Well, even if it will pass over Abuyog.....

[Alyono]

This wont turn to the WSW over Cebu City

[xtyphooncyclonex]

This wont turn to the WSW over Cebu City

But will it pass close? Will we have typhoon conditions?

[euro6208]

warming convection around the eye... it must be going through another EWC and a much larger eye will appear...