WPAC: HAIYAN - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

GOD BLESS PALAU!

255
WTPQ83 PGUM 061701
HLSPQ3

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SUPER TYPHOON HAIYAN (31W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
300 AM CHST THU NOV 7 2013

...EYEWALL OF SUPER TYPHOON HAIYAN OVER KAYANGEL...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE ON YAP AND NGULU IN YAP STATE...AND FOR KOROR AND
KAYANGEL IN THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...

A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR KOROR AND KAYANGEL IN THE
REPUBLIC OF PALAU AND FOR NGULU IN YAP STATE. TYPHOON CONDITIONS
INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 75 MPH OR MORE ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING FOR KOROR AND KAYANGEL AND ENDING ON NGULU.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR YAP ISLAND IN YAP
STATE. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 40 MPH
OR MORE ARE OCCURRING AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ABOUT 6 MORE HOURS AT
YAP ISLAND AND WITHIN ITS COASTAL WATERS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 100 AM CHST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF SUPER TYPHOON HAIYAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 8.1 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 135.4 DEGREES
EAST. THIS IS

ABOUT 145 MILES WEST OF NGULU
ABOUT 210 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF YAP
ABOUT 50 MILES EAST OF KAYANGEL AND
ABOUT 90 MILES NORTHEAST OF KOROR.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH.
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
SUPER TYPHOON HAIYAN IS MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY AS IT MOVES WEST
AT 21 MPH. HAIYAN IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OR INTENSIFY
SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...NGULU...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TYPHOON FORCE WINDS OF 75 MPH OR MORE HAVE BEGUN TO SUBSIDE. REMAIN
IN SHELTER OVERNIGHT AND UNTIL WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED. MAKE SURE YOU
HAVE ENOUGH FOOD AND WATER TO LAST SEVERAL DAYS AFTER THE STORM. DO
NOT ATTEMPT INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS UNTIL SEAS
HAVE SUBSIDED. FOLLOW THE INSTRUCTIONS OF YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.

.WIND INFORMATION...
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 45 TO 65 MPH WILL DIMINISH TO BETWEEN 25 AND 35
MPH BY LATE MORNING.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SEAS AROUND 20 FEET WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS SURF AS HIGH AS 22 FEET
ON WINDWARD SHORES. THE STORM SURGE WILL LIKELY OVERSPREAD MOST OF
THE ATOLL. COASTAL INUNDATION OF 6 TO 9 FEET ABOVE HIGH TIDE IS
LIKELY ALONG WINDWARD EXPOSURES UNTIL DAWN. SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO
BETWEEN 9 AND 12 FEET LATER THIS MORNING.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH
THIS MORNING...RESULTING IN SOME LOCAL FLOODING IN POOR-DRAINAGE AND
LOW-LYING AREAS.

...YAP...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. REMAIN
IN SHELTERS OVERNIGHT OR UNTIL WINDS SUBSIDE EARLY THIS MORNING.
LISTEN FOR UPDATED INFORMATION. DO NOT ATTEMPT INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS UNTIL THE SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED.

...WIND INFORMATION...
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THIS MORNING.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
OFFSHORE SEAS OF 9 TO 12 FEET THIS MORNING WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS
SURF OF 11 TO 14 FEET ON EXPOSED SHORES. COASTAL INUNDATION AROUND 1
FOOT ABOVE HIGH TIDE IS EXPECTED ALONG WINDWARD EXPOSURES AND IN
COLONIA LAGOON (CHAMORRO BAY)...WHERE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CAUSE
WATER LEVELS TO RISE. RIP CURRENTS WILL BE LIFE THREATENING ALONG
REEFS AND COASTLINES.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES COULD OCCUR THIS MORNING. THIS
COULD RESULT IN SOME LOCAL FLOODING IN POOR-DRAINAGE AND LOW-LYING
AREAS.

...KAYANGEL...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING. REMAIN IN SHELTERS UNTIL
THE WINDS HAVE FULLY SUBSIDED. MAKE SURE YOU HAVE ENOUGH FOOD AND
WATER TO LAST SEVERAL DAYS AFTER THE STORM. DO NOT ATTEMPT
INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS UNTIL SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED.
FOLLOW THE INSTRUCTIONS OF YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
EYE PASSAGE IS EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. NORTH WINDS OF 100 MPH OR MORE
WILL ABRUPTLY SHIFT TO SOUTH AT 100 MPH OR MORE BY 300 AM CHST.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST AND DECREASE TO 40 TO 50 MPH BY
SUNRISE AND TO 25 TO 35 MPH BEFORE NOON TODAY. WHEN THE EYE PASSES
OVERHEAD...DO NOT BE FOOLED BY THE RELATIVELY CALM WINDS INSIDE THE
EYE. STAY SHELTERED IN PLACE. AFTER THE EYE PASSES...WINDS WILL
ABRUPTLY INCREASE FROM THE OPPOSITE DIRECTION TO WELL OVER 100 MPH
IN JUST ONE TO TWO MINUTES. DUE TO THE FAST MOVEMENT OF HAIYAN...ANY
EYE PASSAGE WILL NOT LAST VERY LONG.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
DANGEROUS SEAS AND SURF OF UP TO 20 FEET ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS MORNING. COASTAL INUNDATION MAY REACH 4 TO 6 FEET ALONG
WINDWARD SHORELINES.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
HEAVY RAINFALL OF 8 INCHES OR MORE IS POSSIBLE THOUGH THIS
AFTERNOON... RESULTING IN LOCAL FLOODING IN POOR-DRAINAGE AND
LOW-LYING AREAS.

...KOROR...

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING...ESPECIALLY ON NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF BABELDAOB. REMAIN IN A STURDY SHELTER WHICH CAN
WITHSTAND STRONG WINDS AWAY FROM SHORELINES UNTIL WINDS SUBSIDE
LATER THIS MORNING. LISTEN FOR UPDATED INFORMATION. DO NOT ATTEMPT
INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS UNTIL SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED.

...WIND INFORMATION...
WEST WINDS 45 TO 55 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 65 MPH WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SUNRISE...THEN SHIFTING SOUTHWEST AT 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55
MPH BEFORE NOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND DECREASE FURTHER
TO 25 TO 35 MPH BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
DANGEROUS SEAS AND SURF OF UP TO 16 FEET ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.
COASTAL INUNDATION MAY REACH 2 TO 3 FEET ALONG WINDWARD SHORELINES.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
HEAVY RAINFALL OF 6 INCHES OR MORE IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON... RESULTING IN LOCAL FLOODING IN POOR-DRAINAGE AND
LOW-LYING AREAS. SOME MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE HIGHWAY ON
BABELDAOB.

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE LATER THIS MORNING AT 900 AM...OR SOONER IF NEEDED.

$$

MCELROY/CHAN/GUARD




WDPN33 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 31W (HAIYAN) WARNING NR
14//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON 31W (HAIYAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 113 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF KOROR, PALAU, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR)
REVEALS STY 31W HAS MAINTAINED A PERSISTENT RING OF DEEP CONVECTION
AROUND A SMALL 8NM EYE WHILE SOME DETACHED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
HAS FORMED ALONG THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THIS IS FURTHER SUPPORTED
BY A 061027Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH DEPICTS AN INTENSE
CONVECTIVE CORE AND IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING IN ALL QUADRANTS.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE SMALL
EYE SEEN IN THE EIR ANIMATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
INCREASED TO 140 KNOTS DUE TO THE IMPROVING STRUCTURE AND CONGRUENT
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW
AND LOW (05 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. STY 31W IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR), WHICH IS ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. STY 31W IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 72. DUE TO VERY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS
FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A PEAK INTENSITY EXPECTED OVER
THE WARM OPEN WATERS OF THE PHILIPPINE SEA. STY HAIYAN WILL MAKE
LANDFALL OVER THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINES JUST SLIGHTLY AFTER TAU 36 AND
WILL SLIGHTLY WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE ISLANDS. STY 31W IS
EXPECTED TO RE-EMERGE OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AS A 110 KNOT
TYPHOON. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCEPTIONALLY TIGHT AGREEMENT
THROUGH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, STY 31W IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AFTER TAU
72 AS IT TRACKS OVER MARGINAL SSTS IN THE WESTERN SOUTH CHINA SEA
AND BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER LAND, MAKING LANDFALL AFTER TAU 96, WHICH
WILL START TO DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED TAUS, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.//
NNNN

[CrazyC83]

Any reliable pressure readings on Palau if they caught the eye? That would help a lot in determining the intensity. Regardless, it is an incredibly dangerous storm! How often does anywhere get the eyewall of a Category 5 storm directly? Not very often! Even Category 4 eyewalls are rare...

As for current intensity, I would have to guess about 145 kt (albeit perhaps conservatively). Honestly, the microwave doesn't look as intense as some of the earlier storms this year compared to the visible, although still incredibly strong.

[jaguarjace]

16:30 UTC - eye directly north of Palau.

[Extratropical94]

31W HAIYAN 131106 1800 8.2N 134.4E WPAC 150 911

[cycloneye]

31W HAIYAN 131106 1800 8.2N 134.4E WPAC 150 911

The most intense on earth of 2013.

[Meow]

Haiyan, a 115-knot typhoon, is challenging TY Megi (1013)!



TY 1330 (HAIYAN)
Issued at 18:50 UTC, 6 November 2013

<Analyses at 06/18 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Violent
Center position N8°10'(8.2°)
E134°25'(134.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W 35km/h(18kt)
Central pressure 905hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 60m/s(115kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 85m/s(165kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL130km(70NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 07/06 UTC>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N9°10'(9.2°)
E131°20'(131.3°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30km/h(16kt)
Central pressure 900hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 60m/s(120kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 85m/s(170kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL260km(140NM)

<Forecast for 07/18 UTC>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N10°30'(10.5°)
E127°55'(127.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 35km/h(18kt)
Central pressure 895hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 65m/s(125kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 90m/s(175kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area ALL300km(160NM)

<Forecast for 08/18 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N12°20'(12.3°)
E119°55'(119.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 35km/h(20kt)
Central pressure 930hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(95kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(135kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area ALL440km(240NM)

<Forecast for 09/18 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N14°00'(14.0°)
E112°05'(112.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 35km/h(19kt)
Central pressure 925hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(100kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(140kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)
Storm warning area ALL560km(300NM)

[hurricanes1234]

MY GOSH!!!!!! 150 KNOTS?!!! IS THIS TYPHOON MAD?!!! I AM SIMPLY BEYOND SPEECHLESS!!!!!

[cycloneye]

Here is a interview by the Capital Weather Gang to Ryan Maue about this epic SuperTyphoon.

Super typhoon Haiyan hits Category 5, an extremely serious threat to Philippines
WP, Capital Weather Gang, By Jason Samenow, November 6 at 1:46 pm

The western Pacific storm Haiyan has intensified without interruption since Sunday and is now a dangerous Category 5 super typhoon, with maximum sustained winds exceeding 160 mph. It is on a path due west, and landfall Friday in the central Philippines is inevitable.

Haiyan – known as Yolanda in the Philippines – is likely the strongest storm to form on the planet this year.

“Based on satellite imagery, [Haiyan's] the strongest storm I’ve seen since Bopha (2012),” says Ryan Maue, a meteorologist with WeatherBell Analytics.

Super typhoon Bopha, whose peak winds reached 175 mph, caused hundreds of fatalities on the southern Philippine island of Mindanao in December 2012.

Maue says it’s possible Haiyan’s maximum sustained winds have reached 180 mph.

“[The] system has developed to almost max intensity for a cyclone,” notes a NOAA bulletin.

Officially, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecasts additional strengthening over the next day, but with the storm near its theoretical maximum strength – it’s more likely it has leveled off. As it continues westward over the Philippine Sea, its inner core may re-organize through what’s known as an eyewall replacement cycle, which would briefly weaken the storm. But water temperatures are very warm along Haiyan’s path, so significant weakening is unlikely. ...

[Meow]

MY GOSH!!!!!! 150 KNOTS?!!! IS THIS TYPHOON MAD?!!! I AM SIMPLY BEYOND SPEECHLESS!!!!!

In fact, JMA’s 115-knot is stronger than JTWC’s 150-knot.

[cycloneye]

Epic 21:00 UTC warning by JTWC as it forecasts landfall at 145kts.

[Meow]

Epic 21:00 UTC warning by JTWC as it forecasts landfall at 145kts.

But they think Haiyan has peaked at 150 knots.

WTPN33 PGTW 062100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 31W (HAIYAN) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z --- NEAR 8.2N 134.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.2N 134.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 9.1N 131.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 10.1N 127.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 11.2N 124.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 12.2N 120.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 14.3N 112.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 16.8N 107.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 19.1N 103.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
062100Z POSITION NEAR 8.4N 133.6E.
SUPER TYPHOON 31W (HAIYAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 54 NM NORTH OF
KOROR, PALAU, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS 46 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 070300Z, 070900Z, 071500Z AND 072100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 30W (THIRTY) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

[hurricanes1234]

Haiyan is remarkable. Not ONE characteristic of this tropical cyclone isn't stunning - with the leading being that it is one of the southernmost Category 5s here EVER. May God be with these people in its path.

[ManilaTC]

Its like Dragonball Z. Super-Haiyan 5.

[cycloneye]

Here is a graphic that illustrates how many cities are on the forecast track. Hopefully an epic disaster is averted.

[hurricanes1234]

Felt I needed to post an image of this beastly tropical cyclone that is going through some intensely explosive deepening. From 75 mph to 175 mph (85 knots) in 36 hours. Height of tropical cyclone craziness.

[Alyono]

seems Ormoc may be the city at most risk.

That city did see nearly 6,000 dead from Thelma in 1991 and it was "only" a tropical storm

[cycloneye]

James Reynolds is set to be in the bullseye. Here is an interview.

Despite the dangers, Reynolds is set to fly to Tacloban on Thursday to prepare and document the full force of Yolanda, which according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), will be stronger than super typhoon "Pablo."

"It's my job to be in the right location, to capture to the full force of nature as safely as possible, just so the people can get an understanding if they haven't necessarily been through the full force of a typhoon, to [make them] understand what it is like," he said.

Reynolds' documentaries about the strongest storms, including those that hit the Philippines, had been featured on Discover Channel and CNN.

http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/nation/11/06 ... orm-chaser

[Macrocane]

So can we say Haiyan is the strongest tropical cyclone worldwide since 2010 Megi?
It's beautiful but very frightening, hope everyone's prepared.

[cycloneye]

Mass evacuation is ready to be implemented

[RL3AO]

F. T7.5/7.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...DT=7.5 BASED ON CMG RING WITH OW EYE. PT=7.7. MET=7.5. FT
IS BASED ON DT.