WPAC: HAIYAN - Post-Tropical

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Thick convection and very warm eye, the perfect storm!

[dexterlabio]

^Perfect storm indeed, but you wouldn't want to be in there.............unless you earn something to chase this kind. lol.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

^Perfect storm indeed, but you wouldn't want to be in there.............unless you earn something to chase this kind. lol.

I'll take a footage and post it right away [if the power is still on] and that's interesting!

[xtyphooncyclonex]

16 pages? WOW!

[Ntxw]

Another absolute beast. Where do they all come from??

[ejeraldmc]

It seems to have jogged down again.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Severe Weather Bulletin Number ONE
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Typhoon "YOLANDA"(HAIYAN)
Issued at 11:00 p.m., Wednesday, 06 November 2013
The Typhoon East of Mindanao is about to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) and will be named "YOLANDA".
Location of Center:
(as of 10:00 p.m.) 1,110 km East of Hinatuan, Surigao Del Sur
Coordinates: 8.1°N, 135.5°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 195 kph near the center and
gustiness of up to 230 kph
Movement: Forecast to move West Northwest at 30 kph
Forecast Positions/Outlook: Thursday evening:
423 km East Southeast of Guiuan, Eastern Samar
Friday evening:
55 km Southeast of Romblon Island
Friday evening:
527 km West Northwest of Coron, Palawan
Areas Having Public Storm Warning Signal
PSWS # Luzon Visayas Mindanao
Signal No. 1
(30-60 kph winds may be expected in at least 36 hours) None Northern Samar
Eastern Samar
Samar
Leyte
Southern Leyte
Biliran Island
Camotes Island Surigao Del Norte
Siargao Island
Dinagat Island
Surigao Del Sur
Agusan Del Norte
Northern part of Agusan Del Sur

[supercane4867]

Haiyan has an impressive satellite presentation. But notice the outflow pattern remain limited and especially restricted to the east, which probably hints there some easterly shear currently affecting Haiyan due to the slight displacement of anticyclone.
This may impede Haiyan from reaching its max potential intensity on dvorak estimate




Think about a real monster

[ejeraldmc]

It's moving more westerly now.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

It seems to have jogged down again.

And that's why I'd put Cebu, Central & Southern Leyte, Northern Bohol, Surigao del Norte, Iloilo, Capiz, Negros and Siargao Island under the GREATEST THREAT. They're the ones [most likely] to be put under Signal # 4, if PAGASA will not be too conservative this time!

I wonder why agencies did not follow suit, but the major dynamic models predict that Haiyan will hit these places directly, and my HOMETOWN!!!!!

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[mrbagyo]

2013NOV06 135700 7.7 875.5 +4.9 161.0 7.7 7.8 7.8 NO LIMIT OFF OFF 15.61 -82.26 EYE 18 IR 72.8 8.12 -135.31 COMBO MTSAT1 11.0
wew, although Haiyan might step on the brake soon.


MIKE, BOPHA, HAIYAN : all late season, low latitude howlers

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the RSMC products.

[euro6208]

my eyes hurting because of it's proximity to the equator...This doesn't seem normal Third closest Category 5 worldwide record to the Equator!

[mrbagyo]

and the latest from SSD....
TXPQ25 KNES 061537
TCSWNP

A. 31W (HAIYAN)

B. 06/1430Z

C. 8.0N

D. 135.3E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T7.5/7.5/D2.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED TO ALMOST MAX INTENSITY FOR A
CYCLONE WITH A DT=7.5 BASED ON A WMG EYE EMBEDDED IN CMG WITH A RING OF
CDG. MET=7.0 FOR A RAPID DEVELOPMENT BUT PAT=7.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SWANSON

[euro6208]

WOW! I can't imagine being on kayangel right now with this unbelieveable storm...only 50 miles away and closest point of approach is approximately 1 hour and 01 minutes away...



975
WTPQ33 PGUM 061534
TCPPQ3

BULLETIN
SUPER TYPHOON HAIYAN (31W) ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP312013
200 AM CHST THU NOV 7 2013

...EYEWALL OF SUPER TYPHOON HAIYAN NEARING KAYANGEL IN PALAU...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NGULU IN YAP STATE...AND
KAYANGEL AND KOROR IN THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU. TYPHOON CONDITIONS
INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 75 MPH OR MORE WILL LAST FOR SEVERAL
MORE HOURS FOR NGULU...AND ARE OCCURRING ON KAYANGEL AND IMMINENT
WITHIN 2 HOURS FOR KOROR.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR YAP ISLAND IN YAP
STATE. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 40 MPH
OR MORE WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS ON YAP ISLAND AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...8.1N 135.4E

ABOUT 145 MILES WEST OF NGULU
ABOUT 210 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF YAP
ABOUT 50 MILES EAST OF KAYANGEL
ABOUT 90 MILES NORTHEAST OF KOROR

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH.
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF SUPER TYPHOON HAIYAN WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 8.1 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 135.4
EAST.

SUPER TYPHOON HAIYAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT 21 MPH. HAIYAN IS
EXPECTED TO TURN SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WHILE
MAINTAINING ITS FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE LATEST
FORECAST TRACK BRINGS THE CENTER OF HAIYAN VERY CLOSE TO KAYANGEL
THIS MORNING AROUND 300 AM.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN 160 MPH. FROM THE CENTER...TYPHOON
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145 MILES. SUPER TYPHOON HAIYAN COULD
STILL INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY THROUGH THIS EVENING.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 500 AM...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 800
AM.

$$

MCELROY




Republic of Public...Home of over 21,000 residents...Largest Village- Koror...



Closeup of Kayangel with the forecast track...What is that little island to it's northwest?

[euro6208]

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2571



Jeff Masters talking about Super Typhoon Haiyan...Great discussion!

[Alyono]

population 138 of the island that will be impacted

[ejeraldmc]

It wobbles down to Palau!!!

[euro6208]

as if it weren't enough for the area, 06Z GFS showing another storm, future 32W to strike Mindanao...

[euro6208]

PGTW- 7.5
REMARKS: 05A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG
YIELDS AN E# OF 6.5. ADDED 1.0 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A DT
OF 7.5. MET AND PT YIELD A 6.5. DBO DT.

SSD- 7.5
H. REMARKS...SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED TO ALMOST MAX INTENSITY FOR A
CYCLONE WITH A DT=7.5 BASED ON A WMG EYE EMBEDDED IN CMG WITH A RING OF
CDG. MET=7.0 FOR A RAPID DEVELOPMENT BUT PAT=7.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

ADT- 7.7 875.4 161.0
RAW up to 7.8!

[cycloneye]

The area that was affected by a powerful earthquake on October 15 is once again in the spotlight as Haiyan will go over that same place.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mhpL5d1sQzc