WPAC: HAIYAN - Post-Tropical

[dexterlabio]

^but this storm is en route to Eastern Samar, isn't it?

[cycloneye]

I haven't seen yet information about if James Reynolds will chase Haiyan.

[dexterlabio]

^He is going to Manila as of this moment. But according to his Twitter, the exact location of chasing is still unsure.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

^He is going to Manila as of this moment. But according to his Twitter, the exact location of chasing is still unsure.

I suggest to go to either Tacloban, Leyte or to Cebu City. Tacloban is closer to the eye but Cebu is easily accessible.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

^but this storm is en route to Eastern Samar, isn't it?

I meant if that will occur [not much changes in direction/...

[cycloneye]

Breaking News=SuperTyphoon Haiyan at 130kts,peak is now 145kts

[dexterlabio]

I think Mindoro is the safest place to be if he wants to catch the northern eyewall, which seems to contain the strongest winds according to ACSAT. It's easy to go there from Manila. But if he wants to take a big risk, Samar and Leyte are the places to be.

[stormstrike]

Oh. I don't speak Bisaya. Our language here is different from yours but some words are identical.


Anyway, here's the latest ADT for Haiyan:

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.5
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 05 NOV 2013 Time : 143000 UTC
Lat : 7:01:49 N Lon : 142:03:55 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.2 / 967.2mb/ 94.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.2 6.0 6.6

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :<10 km

Center Temp : -29.4C Cloud Region Temp : -81.7C

Scene Type : PINHOLE EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : MW AdjEnd
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 67km
- Environmental MSLP : 1008mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT1
Satellite Viewing Angle : 8.6 degrees

What language do you speak AT HOME, then? What part of Leyte are you from?---------Back to the topic: Are there a lot of shoppers buying emergency equipment there? Here in Cebu, many people are aware of this monster and are starting their preparations.

Haiyan is just, WOW! Rapidly intensifying from a tropical storm to a category 4 in just 24 hours!

We speak in Waray. And I'm from Tacloban City. Northeastern part of Leyte which probably might feel the worst of this one.

Bright side is that this is a fast-moving storm AND I could experience a supertyphoon first hand.. lol but seriously speaking, I'm scared of this one.
We've already been praying here since last night.

[hurricanes1234]

I've checked JTWC using my tablet device, and it's working. So it's really just the computer.

By the way, is this our fourth super typhoon? It'll soon be our fourth Category 5.

[Alyono]

its been slowly gaining latitude all day

It was 7.5N but went down to 7.4N, so very slow. It is more like in a westerly direction.

I was doing sat fixes at work today. It never got to 7.5N

[euro6208]

Good afternoon...I see we got a monster typhoon over here

[euro6208]

I've checked JTWC using my tablet device, and it's working. So it's really just the computer.

By the way, is this our fourth super typhoon? It'll soon be our fourth Category 5.

10th Major Typhoon and 5th Super Typhoon of the season ...


6-nm eye! if only we have direct observation...likely will find a smaller eye and pressure of sub -880...


WDPN33 PGTW 060300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 31W (HAIYAN) WARNING NR
12//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 31W (HAIYAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 154 NM
SOUTHEAST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING SYSTEM WITH A SMALL, 6-NM PINHOLE EYE (THE
SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED 65 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS FROM
65 KNOTS TO THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 130 KNOTS). THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 127 KNOTS FROM
KNES AND PGTW. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION
BASED ON THE PINHOLE EYE. A 052223Z SSMIS IMAGE DEPICTS A SMALL 60-
NM CORE WITH INTENSE CONVECTIVE BANDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE
WRAPPING INTO THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW,
ENHANCED BY THE TUTT POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST. STY 31W IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR), WHICH IS ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. STY 31W IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 72. DUE TO VERY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS
FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS WITH A PEAK INTENSITY EXPECTED OVER
THE PHILIPPINE SEA, SOMETIME BETWEEN TAU 12 AND 36. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN EXCEPTIONALLY TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PORTION OF
THE FORECAST.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, STY HAIYAN WILL MAKE LANDFALL NEAR TAU
48 OVER THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINES. STY 31W WILL WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS
ACROSS THE PHILIPPINE ISLANDS, BUT SHOULD EMERGE OVER THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA NEAR A 110 KNOT INTENSITY. STY 31W IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
AFTER TAU 96 AS IT TRACKS OVER MARGINAL SST AND ENCOUNTERS LAND.
DYNAMIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
TAUS, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.//
NNNN

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Good afternoon...I see we got a monster typhoon over here

People are panicking here...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I've checked JTWC using my tablet device, and it's working. So it's really just the computer.

By the way, is this our fourth super typhoon? It'll soon be our fourth Category 5.

10th Major Typhoon and 5th Super Typhoon of the season ...


6-nm eye! if only we have direct observation...likely will find a smaller eye and pressure of sub -880...


WDPN33 PGTW 060300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 31W (HAIYAN) WARNING NR
12//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 31W (HAIYAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 154 NM
SOUTHEAST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING SYSTEM WITH A SMALL, 6-NM PINHOLE EYE (THE
SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED 65 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS FROM
65 KNOTS TO THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 130 KNOTS). THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 127 KNOTS FROM
KNES AND PGTW. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION
BASED ON THE PINHOLE EYE. A 052223Z SSMIS IMAGE DEPICTS A SMALL 60-
NM CORE WITH INTENSE CONVECTIVE BANDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE
WRAPPING INTO THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW,
ENHANCED BY THE TUTT POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST. STY 31W IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR), WHICH IS ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. STY 31W IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 72. DUE TO VERY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS
FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS WITH A PEAK INTENSITY EXPECTED OVER
THE PHILIPPINE SEA, SOMETIME BETWEEN TAU 12 AND 36. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN EXCEPTIONALLY TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PORTION OF
THE FORECAST.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, STY HAIYAN WILL MAKE LANDFALL NEAR TAU
48 OVER THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINES. STY 31W WILL WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS
ACROSS THE PHILIPPINE ISLANDS, BUT SHOULD EMERGE OVER THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA NEAR A 110 KNOT INTENSITY. STY 31W IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
AFTER TAU 96 AS IT TRACKS OVER MARGINAL SST AND ENCOUNTERS LAND.
DYNAMIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
TAUS, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.//
NNNN

Low-latitude and smaller size. Not a sub-880 mb system. Probably around 920-945 mb. I guess peak intensity would be around 915 mb before landfall.

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[euro6208]

Remember Wilma from 2005 from the AHS? Highest only reach 6.5 on dvorak and ADT at 6.8 and Raw at 7.0 just like what we see over here...

Well haiyan has a higher number than that and numbers still increasing!

Both with PINHOLE EYES!

Wilma didn't reach higher dvorak numbers at the time because satellites are totally useless on measuring temperature of extremely small eyes

A bias-corrected post season analyze has Wilma at T7.8, which is second highest of 21st centry only below Monica

Well same here...satellite having a hard time with haiyan...but numbers are higher...

can you provide a link that you say is the second highest in the 21st century?

haiyan is a carbon copy of wilma, the eyewall probrably has winds of about 150-155 knots and pressure of around 870 or lower...

this is like the 100th wilma type storm over here...

Recon?

[euro6208]

877
WTPQ33 PGUM 060333
TCPPQ3

BULLETIN
SUPER TYPHOON HAIYAN (31W) ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP312013
200 PM CHST WED NOV 6 2013

...HAIYAN STRENGTHENS TO SUPER TYPHOON SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF YAP...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

THE TYPHOON WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR FAIS AND ULITHI IN YAP
STATE.

A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NGULU IN YAP STATE AND
KAYANGEL IN THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU. TYPHOON CONDITIONS INCLUDING
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 75 MPH OR MORE ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 6
TO 12 HOURS FOR NGULU AND THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS FOR KAYANGEL.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND TYPHOON WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR YAP
ISLAND IN YAP STATE AND FOR KOROR IN THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 40 MPH OR MORE ARE
EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS FOR YAP AND THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
KOROR. TYPHOON CONDITIONS INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 75 MPH OR
MORE ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS FOR YAP AND THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR KOROR.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...7.6N 138.8E

ABOUT 100 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NGULU
ABOUT 140 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF YAP
ABOUT 170 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ULITHI
ABOUT 190 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FAIS
ABOUT 285 MILES EAST OF KAYANGEL
ABOUT 300 MILES EAST OF KOROR

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH.
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF SUPER TYPHOON HAIYAN WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 7.6 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 138.8
EAST.

SUPER TYPHOON HAIYAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT 18 MPH. HAIYAN IS
EXPECTED TO TURN SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WHILE MAINTAINING
FORWARD SPEED THROUGH THURSDAY. THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK BRINGS THE
CENTER OF HAIYAN ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTH OF YAP ISLAND LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE CENTER OF SUPER TYPHOON HAIYAN IS EXPECTED TO PASS
NEAR NGULU ATOLL EARLY THIS EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 150 MPH. TYPHOON FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES FROM THE CENTER. SUPER
TYPHOON HAIYAN IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 500 PM...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 800
PM.

$$

WILLIAMS

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Remember Wilma from 2005 from the AHS? Highest only reach 6.5 on dvorak and ADT at 6.8 and Raw at 7.0 just like what we see over here...

Well haiyan has a higher number than that and numbers still increasing!

Both with PINHOLE EYES!

Wilma didn't reach higher dvorak numbers at the time because satellites are totally useless on measuring temperature of extremely small eyes

A bias-corrected post season analyze has Wilma at T7.8, which is second highest of 21st centry only below Monica

Well same here...satellite having a hard time with haiyan...

can you provide a link that you say is the second highest in the 21st century?

haiyan is a carbon copy of wilma, the eyewall probrably has winds of about 150-155 knots and pressure of around 870 or lower...

I said don't overestimate the strength if storms, please. The storm is quite compact in size [not in wind radius] and in a low latitude. As I have said, the pressure is not even close to 880 mbar and is probably in the neighborhood of 920-945 mbar.

Bopha last year had a pressure of around 950 mbar at this state and had winds of 115 knots:



Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[wxmann_91]

I think this has a pressure ~900 +/- 20mb. It was probably on the lower end of that estimate earlier today, a little weaker now as it's going through an ERC. The RMW with storms with pinhole eye is very small - and all that air has nowhere to go but up in such a small, confined radius. All that lift is going to seriously lower the pressure.

You really can't compare to Bopha because there were never recon measurements in Bopha. For all we know it could've had a 920mb pressure when that satellite image was taken - we just don't know.

[euro6208]

I said don't overestimate the strength if storms, please. The storm is quite compact in size [not in wind radius] and in a low latitude. As I have said, the pressure is not even close to 880 mbar and is probably in the neighborhood of 920-945 mbar.

Bopha last year had a pressure of around 950 mbar at this state and had winds of 115 knots:



Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

those are just estimated pressures rounded off to the nearest 5 from JMA and really high (biased) for this type of typhoon with a pinhole eye...I'm comparing Wilma to haiyan because it is the closest any atlantic storm can get in typhoon territory intensity...

Wilma- 160 knots 882 mb...(Recon)

Haiyan??? 155 to 160 knots, pressure is lower in our area so i'm guessing 877mb- 5 mb lower...

PINHOLE EYE often gets underestimated big time...

If you don't know, Bopha peaked at 150 knots a category 5 before hitting mindanao...

[jaguarjace]

Saved loop.