WPAC: HAIYAN - Post-Tropical

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Oh no! Can we get an annular typhoon from this?

[xtyphooncyclonex]

JTWC says 115 kts. I saw in Ryan Maue's website, which source is the best track.

[cycloneye]

JTWC says 115 kts. I saw in Ryan Maue's website, which source is the best track.

Indeed.

31W HAIYAN 131106 0000 7.5N 139.7E WPAC 115 937

http://199.9.2.143/tcdat/sectors/atcf_sector_file

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I'm wondering if this could be a low-latitude repeat of Forrest from '83....

Forrest is the fastest intensification storm in the world when it deepened by 100 mb in just 24 hours, 976 to 876mb in September...

Wilma went down to 882 mb but this is November...

Pressures are lower this month so I wouldn't be surprised if this is as low as 860mb...

impressive...

Actually, 885 mb according to RSMC data, so this deepened by 91 mb.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Oh. I don't speak Bisaya. Our language here is different from yours but some words are identical.


Anyway, here's the latest ADT for Haiyan:

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.5
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 05 NOV 2013 Time : 143000 UTC
Lat : 7:01:49 N Lon : 142:03:55 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.2 / 967.2mb/ 94.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.2 6.0 6.6

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :<10 km

Center Temp : -29.4C Cloud Region Temp : -81.7C

Scene Type : PINHOLE EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : MW AdjEnd
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 67km
- Environmental MSLP : 1008mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT1
Satellite Viewing Angle : 8.6 degrees

What language do you speak AT HOME, then? What part of Leyte are you from?---------Back to the topic: Are there a lot of shoppers buying emergency equipment there? Here in Cebu, many people are aware of this monster and are starting their preparations.

Haiyan is just, WOW! Rapidly intensifying from a tropical storm to a category 4 in just 24 hours!

[hurricanes1234]

Category 4 now!!!! This goes from a weak Category 1 to a Category 4 in the span of 18 hours. And it is NOT the first, second, or third time for the year, in fact, for the past 4-6 months. This typhoon is already beginning to lose its banding, so I wouldn't be too surprised to see a doughnut some time soon. This is why I will never hesitate to call the WPAC basin 'intoxicated' at times.

[cycloneye]

JTWC says 115 kts. I saw in Ryan Maue's website, which source is the best track.

Indeed.

31W HAIYAN 131106 0000 7.5N 139.7E WPAC 115 937

http://199.9.2.143/tcdat/sectors/atcf_sector_file

Oh boy,ATCF updated the 00z Best Track intensity up to 130kts.

31W HAIYAN 131106 0000 7.4N 139.6E WPAC 130 926

[xtyphooncyclonex]

JTWC says 115 kts. I saw in Ryan Maue's website, which source is the best track.

Indeed.

31W HAIYAN 131106 0000 7.5N 139.7E WPAC 115 937

http://199.9.2.143/tcdat/sectors/atcf_sector_file

Oh boy,ATCF updated the 00z Best Track intensity up to 130kts.

31W HAIYAN 131106 0000 7.4N 139.6E WPAC 130 926

JMA expects a VIOLENT LANDFALL! scary...

<Forecast for 08/00 UTC>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N11°20'(11.3°)
E125°55'(125.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 35km/h(18kt)
Central pressure 920hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 55m/s(105kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75m/s(150kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area ALL460km(250NM)

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Oh boy,ATCF updated the 00z Best Track intensity up to 130kts.

31W HAIYAN 131106 0000 7.4N 139.6E WPAC 130 926

That's what you call explosive intensification!

ANYWAYS....
JMA expects a VIOLENT LANDFALL! Very dangerous for Visayas.

<Forecast for 08/00 UTC>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N11°20'(11.3°)
E125°55'(125.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 35km/h(18kt)
Central pressure 920hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 55m/s(105kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75m/s(150kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area ALL460km(250NM)[/quote]

[dexterlabio]

Not necessarily, I mean, they can grow in size, and they depend on strength. Tip's eye wasn't that large but typhoon force winds covered a HUGE area....

Tip didn't have a pinhole eye. Wilma was the strongest Atlantic hurricane on record but while at its peak, recon found hurricane-force winds confined within a small radius. But yeah you are right, this one can still expand and its eye can still change...which might be underway because of EWRC. GFS and EC are showing large swaths of typhoon and TS-force winds by landfall though...so I'm inclined to think we are going to see a full-fledge supertyphoon with a larger eye.

[hurricanes1234]

130 knots? WHAT MADNESS IS THIS??!!! This is nearly a Category 5!!! I think this will become our strongest tropical cyclone in 2013 (entire year). I am in UTTER shock.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Not necessarily, I mean, they can grow in size, and they depend on strength. Tip's eye wasn't that large but typhoon force winds covered a HUGE area....

Tip didn't have a pinhole eye. Wilma was the strongest Atlantic hurricane on record but while at its peak, recon found hurricane-force winds confined within a small radius. But yeah you are right, this one can still expand and its eye can still change...which might be underway because of EWRC. GFS and EC are showing large swaths of typhoon and TS-force winds by landfall though...so I'm inclined to think we are going to see a full-fledge supertyphoon with a larger eye.

SIGNAL NO 4 will be raised over Northern Cebu, Western & Eastern Samar, Leyte, Southern Leyte and Biliran if that will happen.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

JTWC says 115 kts. I saw in Ryan Maue's website, which source is the best track.

Indeed.

31W HAIYAN 131106 0000 7.5N 139.7E WPAC 115 937

http://199.9.2.143/tcdat/sectors/atcf_sector_file

Oh boy,ATCF updated the 00z Best Track intensity up to 130kts.

31W HAIYAN 131106 0000 7.4N 139.6E WPAC 130 926

It lost some latitude, right?

[dexterlabio]

^LOL that will depend on the movement and of course, to PAGASA's discretion. A lot of times I disagreed with them in raising warning signals, and they tend to have a bias raising storm warning signals on areas within a storm's north quadrant. I suggest them to use wind graphics to analyze which quadrants have hurricane and TS-force winds or so...

[Alyono]

its been slowly gaining latitude all day

[dexterlabio]

Still in a westward track to me. Stair-stepping I must say, after a period of WNW movement. .1 difference in latitude and longitude may mean an eye wobble, given the EWRC occurring...

[hurricanes1234]

Can't get on to JTWC. It says:


ERROR
The requested URL could not be retrieved

The following error was encountered while trying to retrieve the URL: http://www.usno.navy.mil/JTWC/

Access Denied.

Access control configuration prevents your request from being allowed at this time. Please contact your service provider if you feel this is incorrect.

Your cache administrator is noaa.web.edge@noaa.gov.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

its been slowly gaining latitude all day

It was 7.5N but went down to 7.4N, so very slow. It is more like in a westerly direction.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Can't get on to JTWC. It says:


ERROR
The requested URL could not be retrieved

The following error was encountered while trying to retrieve the URL: http://www.usno.navy.mil/JTWC/

Access Denied.

Access control configuration prevents your request from being allowed at this time. Please contact your service provider if you feel this is incorrect.

Your cache administrator is noaa.web.edge@noaa.gov.

Maybe the error is only in your computer. I have access, without problems!

[xtyphooncyclonex]

If it makes landfall of this strength and same direction, this may be the scenario:




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