Texas Fall 2013

[Portastorm]

Next week's system pretty much is mentioned by almost all of the Texas-based NWSFOs in their afternoon area forecast discussions (AFDs). Looks like this is going to be a weather headline event with severe weather in parts of Texas followed by ... possibly ... very unseasonable cold air. Stay tuned!

[Ntxw]

A little update on the indices, the EPO remains negative and is forecasted to dive some more for the second time this month. This should be the catalyst for the potential Halloween frightful weather as the PNA remains slightly positive to neutral. Below average and stormy is what the CPC advertises and fits well.

Beyond this period the EPO will relax to more neutral values as the AO/NAO couplet goes positive. This is the usual November vortex getting set up in the upper atmosphere building cold in the arctic but mainly cuts the middle latitudes (our side) off from cold air that has been typical the past several years. This will mean a warm start to November, how warm will depend on the EPO. Since it looks to remain neutral longer range, I think more seasonable warmth. How soon the cold returns for fun season will depend on how quickly we can break down said vortex IMO, or at least move it to Hudson bay. Hoping we warm ENSO up some to get the storm train active.

[fendie]

All the southern plains NWS WFOs mention discrepancies in the timing/strength of the system. Here is an excerpt from tonight's Ft. Worth office area forecast discussion:

(11:36PM CST)

...

THE NEXT SYSTEM...WHICH HAS THE COLD WEATHER AFICIONADOS ENDING
THEIR SUMMER HIBERNATION...APPEARS TO BE ABOUT A DAY SLOWER THAN
MY FORECAST YESTERDAY. THE GFS...WHICH HAD THE UPPER LOW CUT OFF
OVER THE COASTAL TX PLAINS...NOW KEEPS THE UPPER TROF OPENED UP
ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND SLOWS THE COLD FRONT/S NORTH TX ENTRY
UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF 00Z RUN FORECASTS EXTREMELY
COLD 850 MB AIR OVER NORTH TEXAS UNDER THE CUTOFF LOW...BUT THE
12Z RUN HAS ALSO BACKED OFF A BIT ON THE COLD AIR AND KEPT THE
UPPER LOW CENTER FARTHER NORTH IN OKLAHOMA. IT BRINGS THE COLD
FRONT INTO NORTH TX WEDNESDAY EVENING.

WITH LITTLE RUN TO RUN OR MODEL TO MODEL CONTINUITY...WILL
FORECAST A HYBRID OF THE TWO MODELS...AND BACK UP THE FROPA UNTIL
AFTER THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. I DID KEEP LOW CHANCES FOR THUNDER
FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY ON SYSTEM PROGRESSION...AND UPPED THE POPS TO 30
PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT GIVEN 48 HOURS OF MODEL
PREFERENCE FOR WEDNESDAY PRECIP.

IF THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER TROF FOR MID WEEK CONTINUES TO WEAKEN
AND MOVE NORTH...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL DECREASE.
CURRENT SOLUTIONS SHOW ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOR AN
EVENT...BUT AGAIN...WITH NO MODEL CONSISTENCY CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING/EXTENT IS LOW. 84

[dhweather]

Well, it looks like the GFS snow scenario isn't going to happen.


THE EVOLUTION OF A LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN
U.S. REMAINS A MAJOR FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR MID WEEK.
DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS OF THE PRIMARY MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST
SYSTEMS STILL SHOW SUBSTANTIALLY DIFFERENT STRUCTURES FOR THE
TROUGH AS IT INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS. A CLOSE INSPECTION OF THE 500 MB TROUGH LOCATION USING
MEMBERS FROM THE CANADIAN AND NCEP GLOBAL ENSEMBLE ARE STARTING
TO SHOW A PREFERENCE FOR A SOLUTION SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN THE
DETERMINISTIC ECMWF AND SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE DETERMINISTIC
GFS. FOR THE GRIDDED AND WORDED FORECASTS...WE HAVE FOCUSED ON
PLACING THE HIGHEST POPS DURING THE TIME FRAMES WE FEEL ARE MOST
LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE RAIN...WHICH IS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. LATER FORECASTS WILL LIKELY NEED TO ADJUST THIS TIMING AND
RAISE THE POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY AS THE EVENT DRAWS CLOSER.

FOR THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM...A VARIETY OF HIGH IMPACT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND ALSO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THE LOCATION...TIMING...AND EXTENT OF THESE POTENTIAL THREATS WILL
BE REFINED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THURSDAY EVENING /HALLOWEEN/ WILL
LIKELY BE DRY AND MILD ACROSS MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. DRY
WEATHER AND CLEARING SKIES IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
AS THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.

[weatherdude1108]

You all in the DFW area getting anything? Saw reports from Texas Storm Chasers of golf ball sized hail core near Haslet and Keller. Probably died down by now. Active night up there!

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

You can have it!!!!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

What kind of totals did you guys get from the rain this am? Winds were VERY strong down here in Sugar Land as well with a cell that moved through just north of us

[weatherdude1108]

We got 0.2-inch at my place around 3:30-4:00am this morning with some lightning and thunder. Normal run of the mill storm. No unwanted fanfare like those who had that action in the DFW and Houston areas.

[Portastorm]

We got 0.2-inch at my place around 3:30-4:00am this morning with some lightning and thunder. Normal run of the mill storm. No unwanted fanfare like those who had that action in the DFW and Houston areas.

Got just about the same down to your southwest, weatherdude. Looks like Wed night-Thur morn could be wild though! Stay tuned.

[JDawg512]

Got just under half an inch at my place. Approximately 0.43, good enough for me and more rain on the way.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Well since I only have about 3 snowflakes on the ground here I've asked DD to turn her fans your way too (as well as a few relatives in Calgary):


pretty sure the temps there aren't much different than the above windchill today. Our overnight low was -11C a short while ago and Calgary is currently showing -7C.

[dhweather]

Saturday night, we got 0.89 - hope to get the infamous 2-3" midweek.

[horselattitudesfarm]

We got 1.5" at our house Saturday night. 4.5" for the month of October so far. Now that we are out of summer-mode, we are also out of donut-hole mode. Happens every year where we get less in summer, and make up for it come fall and winter. Something about where we live.

[gboudx]

We got about 1.4" in northern Rockwall county.

Steve LaNore, TV met in east Texas with an article regarding the Wednesday rain event for DFW. Hopefully the highest totals occur where it's being showed. Much of that would runoff into Lake Lavon, Cooper and Ray Hubbard.

http://www.examiner.com/article/dallas- ... ts_article

[Ntxw]

Well the cold air (frost/freezes) won't verify this month. Lets hope the rain does at least, been wet since mid October.

[gboudx]

Forecasted precip totals look great for DFW. But if this does verify I hope no homes are flooded.

[South Texas Storms]

Here is my latest weather article on the upcoming strong storm system!
http://www.examiner.com/article/strong-thunderstorms-possible-wednesday-through-thursday?cid=db_articles

[gpsnowman]

Well, the biggest acorns I have seen on my backyard oaks are all over my yard. And the trees around the Metroplex are starting to show some autumn color. A bit earlier than normal if memory serves me right. Pretty yellow, brown, and oranges dotting the landscape. Some trees are losing their leaves at a good clip already. One thing is missing. C O L D. Portastorm, Ntwx, when are we getting some cold around here? Give us some good news!!!!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Fllying to AZ on Wed night, hopefully the storms arent too severe

[JDawg512]

Im also beginning to see the tree's in the Austin area turn, mostly the Cedar Elms which are typically the first to change. Seems about right for us with the last week in October starting the fall color season with it peaking around Thanksgiving.