EPAC: RAYMOND - Tropical Storm

[Fyzn94]

Slight jog to the east...

[hurricanes1234]

Major Hurricane Raymond attempting to make a run at Category 4 status. 110 knots is just ~3½ mph away from that status.

[Yellow Evan]

Ill be surprised if this is not upped to Cat 4 status at 0z.

[hurricanes1234]

Ill be surprised if this is not upped to Cat 4 status at 0z.

Maybe they'll go with 130 mph. This might be its last opportunity to intensify. Can it become the strongest hurricane here since 2011?

[Yellow Evan]

Ill be surprised if this is not upped to Cat 4 status at 0z.

Maybe they'll go with 130 mph. This might be its last opportunity to intensify. Can it become the strongest hurricane here since 2011?

Hard to say, ERWC's are tough to predict.

[supercane4867]

I doubt there has been much change intensity wise during the past few hours

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE RAYMOND INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
500 PM PDT MON OCT 21 2013

...RAYMOND MEANDERING OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 102.0W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM WSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB...28.02 INCHES

[hurricanes1234]

Eyewall is shrinking slightly. What are the models showing in terms of beyond the 5-day forecast period?

[Yellow Evan]

Eyewall is shrinking slightly. What are the models showing in terms of beyond the 5-day forecast period?

A variety of things.

[cycloneye]

Let's see if Raymond stays as it is now until the plane arrives on Tuesday at 2 PM EDT to see how is the real intensity by that time.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Starting an eyewall replacement cycle. Looks like a 125 mph peak for now (probably overall).

[hurricanes1234]

If it is short-lived like the one this morning, it might have an opportunity to strengthen one more time because of diurnal maximum. From what I've been seeing, conditions don't go unfavourable until around this time tomorrow.

[Yellow Evan]

If it is short-lived like the one this morning, it might have an opportunity to strengthen one more time because of diurnal maximum. From what I've been seeing, conditions don't go unfavourable until around this time tomorrow.

Or if recon finds it stronger. D-Max won't affect a system like this though.

[hurricanes1234]

If it is short-lived like the one this morning, it might have an opportunity to strengthen one more time because of diurnal maximum. From what I've been seeing, conditions don't go unfavourable until around this time tomorrow.

Or if recon finds it stronger. D-Max won't affect a system like this though.

I think it can. Right now, convection is warmer than it was this morning, around sunrise. There's still a ring of convection around the eye, but it's less intense because of the time of day.

[Yellow Evan]

If it is short-lived like the one this morning, it might have an opportunity to strengthen one more time because of diurnal maximum. From what I've been seeing, conditions don't go unfavourable until around this time tomorrow.

Or if recon finds it stronger. D-Max won't affect a system like this though.

I think it can. Right now, convection is warmer than it was this morning, around sunrise. There's still a ring of convection around the eye, but it's less intense because of the time of day.

IMO, it's due to the ERWC or cold SST upwelling.

[cycloneye]

No change.

EP, 17, 2013102200, , BEST, 0, 164N, 1020W, 110, 949, HU

[supercane4867]

TXPZ25 KNES 220010
TCSENP
A. 17E (RAYMOND)
B. 21/2345Z
C. 16.3N
D. 101.9W
E. ONE/GOES-E
F. T5.5/6.0/W0.5/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/AMSU
H. REMARKS...-31.5C EYE JUST BARELY MEASURES DG IS EMBEDDED IN LG FOR
EYE NO. OF 5.0. SURROUNDING RING OF BLACK ADDS ZERO VIA EYE ADJ...FOR
DT OF 5.0...BUT JUST BARELY AND GIVEN THE SIZE OF THE EYE AND SMOOTH
ROUND TEMP GRADIENT WILL FAVOR HIGH SIDE OF 5.0 AND REJECT IN FAVOR OF
PT OF 5.5. MET WAS 5.0 AS WELL. FT IS 5.5 BASED ON PT. CI IS HELD AT
6.0 BASED ON WEAKENING RULES.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
21/2207Z 16.4N 102.1W AMSU

...GALLINA

[CrazyC83]

21/2345 UTC 16.3N 101.9W T5.5/6.0 RAYMOND -- East Pacific

Likely peaked at 1800Z.

[CrazyC83]

I think it might be upgraded to Cat 4 in post-analysis, based on the earlier ADT and SAB measurements.

[hurricanes1234]

I think this would have been a Category 4 as well. Estimates were constantly showing Category 4 status. I think Raymond would be around as a hurricane for a while again. Let's feed the ACE.

What are the chances of Raymond restrengthening over the open waters after heading westward?