EPAC: RAYMOND - Tropical Storm

[hurricanes1234]

12z Best Track.

EP, 17, 2013102112, , BEST, 0, 162N, 1023W, 105, 954, HU

Hmm, no change, though the pressure did come down 1 mbar.

Best Track hasn't done very well with Raymond because of its rate of strengthening. So any increase in organisation just might result in 110 knots or even 115 knots depending on how much better it gets between now and then. What are your thoughts?

[supercane4867]

SSD stays at T5.5 due to stupid constraints however ADT has risen to 6.0 by now

I say 110kt likely for the next advisory

TXPZ25 KNES 211211
TCSENP

A. 17E (RAYMOND)

B. 21/1145Z

C. 16.2N

D. 102.3W

E. ONE/GOES-E

F. T5.5/5.5/D2.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM DEVELOPING RAPIDLY WITH DT=6.0 BASED ON OFF WHITE
EYE EMBEDDED IN BLACK AND SURROUNDED BY WHITE RINGS. MET ON FAST CURVE
IS 4.5 AND PAT IS 5.0. FT IS BASED ON CONSTRAINTS.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SWANSON

[hurricanes1234]

Exactly, because you can see how the ring of convection is getting more symmetrical each frame. I would go as far as to say that this could already be a Category 4.

[tolakram]

Saved loop.

[hurricanes1234]

Can't wait to see visibles. Just spectacular. We never thought we'd see anything like this in 2013.

[hurricanes1234]

Latest image.

[gatorcane]

Looks rather impressive I must say with a nice pinhole eye!

[hurricanes1234]

Looks rather impressive I must say with a nice pinhole eye!

Indeed it is. Once again, EPAC is more active than ATL in a season.

[supercane4867]

Now I will be surprised if it's anywhere lower than a Cat 4

[mrbagyo]

first visible image

[hurricanes1234]

Second one!

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Impressive storm out there!

[supercane4867]

Classic major hurricane cloud pattern with a small but distinct eye embedded in a symmetric CDO

[Macrocane]

Beautiful outflow, structure and eye!

[Extratropical94]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE RAYMOND ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
800 AM PDT MON OCT 21 2013

...MAJOR HURRICANE RAYMOND STATIONARY SOUTH OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 102.2W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM WSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES

[hurricanes1234]

This is still 120 mph? Looks stronger than that to me.

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
800 AM PDT MON OCT 21 2013

THE INTENSITY OF RAYMOND APPEARS TO HAVE LEVELED OFF FOR NOW. THE
EYE HAS SHRUNK A LITTLE IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AND IS
SURROUNDED BY A RING OF COLD CONVECTIVE TOPS. THE LATEST DVORAK
DATA-T NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE T5.5/102 KT...WHICH SUPPORT
AN INTENSITY OF 105 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR A LITTLE ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING...HOWEVER...AN
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE AND INNER-CORE DYNAMICS COULD LEAD TO
SHORT-TERM FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO THAT
ARE NOT SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...LIKELY DUE TO SOME
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND A TRACK OVER GRADUALLY COOLER WATERS LATE
IN THE PERIOD. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO THE LGEM...WHICH IS ON THE HIGH SIDE
OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE.

RAYMOND DRIFTED NORTHWARD OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS...BUT NOW APPEARS TO BE STATIONARY AGAIN. LITTLE NET MOTION
IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE THE STEERING CURRENTS
REMAIN WEAK. IN FACT...THE SPREAD OF THE GUIDANCE IS QUITE LARGE
DURING THE FIRST 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE GFDL AND HWRF CONTINUE TO
BRING RAYMOND NORTHWARD CLOSE TO THE COAST...WHILE THE LATEST
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A SLOW SOUTHWARD OR SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION. THE
NHC TRACK INDICATES LITTLE MOTION DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND SOME ERRATIC MOTION IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. AROUND 48 HOURS...A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD NORTH OF RAYMOND. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE NHC TRACK AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 IS LARGELY AN
UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE. CONFIDENCE IN THIS PART OF THE FORECAST IS ALSO LOWER
THAN NORMAL...WITH CONSIDERABLE NORTH/SOUTH SPREAD IN THE MODEL
TRACKS.

REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF THE HURRICANE AND HOW CLOSE IT GETS
TO THE COAST...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...CAUSING LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/1500Z 16.3N 102.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 16.4N 102.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 22/1200Z 16.5N 102.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 23/0000Z 16.5N 102.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 23/1200Z 16.4N 102.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 24/1200Z 16.0N 104.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 25/1200Z 15.5N 107.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 26/1200Z 15.5N 110.5W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[supercane4867]

CI6.1 RAW6.4

Time MSLP/Vmax Fnl Adj Ini Cnstrnt Wkng Rpd Cntr Mean Scene
2013OCT21 134500 6.1 945.2 117.4 6.1 6.4 6.4 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -4.86 -71.75 EYE

[tolakram]

Live visible loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=17&lon=-120&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=94&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=5

Looks like convection waning at the moment.

[hurricanes1234]

CI6.1 RAW6.4

Time MSLP/Vmax Fnl Adj Ini Cnstrnt Wkng Rpd Cntr Mean Scene
2013OCT21 134500 6.1 945.2 117.4 6.1 6.4 6.4 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -4.86 -71.75 EYE

If these numbers are increasing like this, then it means that Raymond could be stronger than 120 mph now? Will they update the intensity at 11 AM PDT, if needed?