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WTPN22 PHNC 191130 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.0N 96.6W TO 14.4N 104.4W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 190600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 98.4W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.7N 97.2W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 98.4W, APPROXIMATELY 350 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT, ALTHOUGH THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS STILL SHALLOW, THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO CONSOLIDATE AROUND A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS WITH LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 201130Z.
// NNNN