Texas Fall 2013

[wxman57]

Pfft euro isn't fully seeing it yet, still in summer mode. How about those mid and upper 30s on the late GFS wxman57? You have an enemy in the WPAC named Wipha. It's amplifying it for you (or against you) . 300+ GFS always nails it!

Mid 30s where? Central Oklahoma? 00Z GFS has Houston down to 53 as the coldest in the next 2 weeks.

[Ntxw]

Mid 30s where? Central Oklahoma? 00Z GFS has Houston down to 53 as the coldest in the next 2 weeks.

06z has 37 as coldest for Hobby! Gorgeous biking weather!

[wxman57]

Mid 30s where? Central Oklahoma? 00Z GFS has Houston down to 53 as the coldest in the next 2 weeks.

06z has 37 as coldest for Hobby! Gorgeous biking weather!

I like to ignore the 06Z run, particularly when it predicts cold in Houston.

[Ntxw]

I like to ignore the 06Z run, particularly when it predicts cold in Houston.

Since you are here I have a question for you! Do you or any of your colleague (long range guy) think NE/Alaskan ridging will be favored this winter like the Euro is showing for DJF? As compared to the past several winters that would be a 180 that favored -PNA and or +EPO.

[wxman57]

Since you are here I have a question for you! Do you or any of your colleague (long range guy) think NE/Alaskan ridging will be favored this winter like the Euro is showing for DJF? As compared to the past several winters that would be a 180 that favored -PNA and or +EPO.

I don't really get into winter weather pattern forecasting. Looked at the Euro's 2m temp anomaly for DJF and see a thin ribbon of above-normal very close to Houston. Unfortunately, I doubt that the U.S. will be so "normal" this winter...



The MSLPA chart indicates ridge over Gulf of Alaska and low over Hudson/James Bay.

[Ntxw]

Thanks wxman, those anomalies does bode well for us cold mongerers fortunately.

CFSv2 has anywhere from 3-4C below normal for the rest of October for Texas. The core of the cold anomalies extends up and down the plains states. Just another piece of evidence the pattern has very well changed. All this rain for the state means something, especially in October. The EPO is negative but hasn't yet tanked which is expected in the coming days.

[wxman57]

Thanks wxman, those anomalies does bode well for us cold mongerers fortunately.

CFSv2 has anywhere from 3-4C below normal for the rest of October for Texas. The core of the cold anomalies extends up and down the plains states. Just another piece of evidence the pattern has very well changed. All this rain for the state means something, especially in October. The EPO is negative but hasn't yet tanked which is expected in the coming days.

Saw a tweet by Bastardi comparing CFS forecast of U.S. temps in October vs. current verification. The verification was almost the exact opposite of the forecast.

Found it:

[Ntxw]

Saw a tweet by Bastardi comparing CFS forecast of U.S. temps in October vs. current verification. The verification was almost the exact opposite of the forecast.

Found it:

I agree the CFS completely blows forecasts sometimes. But the chilly end to October has a lot of backup. Most of the globals are below normal in the same areas, GFS runs about the same 2-4C below.

[wxman57]

I think I'll just start counting down the days until the next 90F high temp in Houston...

12Z GFS is in - less cold than 06Z. Low to mid 50s in Houston next week then slow warm-up. Too many sub-80F days, though.

[dhweather]

CFS lost all credibility with me last winter and the FREEZER OF IMPENDING DOOM (that never happened)

[dhweather]

It never freaking fails. I honest to God think there is some kind of curse bestowed upon Rockwall County. 80% of the time or more, it sets up this way, just south or just north of us. Today it's this, moving to this ENE. Looks a whole lot like last weekend.

[Texas Snowman]

I'm very concerned about a potential flash flooding event in parts of south central Texas later today/tonight. We have all the ingredients for a classic, fall Texas flash flood situation:

1) Slow moving front
2) Strong Gulf inflow
3) Pacific tropical system moving into state
4) Saturated ground in certain places

While I'm not wishing flash flooding on anyone, I just hope that it sets up in such a way that some of those Hill Country lakes can get some tremendous inflow.

[weatherdude1108]

I'm very concerned about a potential flash flooding event in parts of south central Texas later today/tonight. We have all the ingredients for a classic, fall Texas flash flood situation:

1) Slow moving front
2) Strong Gulf inflow
3) Pacific tropical system moving into state
4) Saturated ground in certain places

While I'm not wishing flash flooding on anyone, I just hope that it sets up in such a way that some of those Hill Country lakes can get some tremendous inflow.

I agree 100%!!

[gboudx]

It never freaking fails. I honest to God think there is some kind of curse bestowed upon Rockwall County. 80% of the time or more, it sets up this way, just south or just north of us. Today it's this, moving to this ENE. Looks a whole lot like last weekend.

Do you have an updated image? NWS radar looks like it's getting nice from I-30 on down through southern Rockwall county.

[dhweather]

Yes, it's setting up along I-30 so we'll get a little. Maybe .10 - .20 if we're lucky.

[gboudx]

That may be the initial edge of the cold front. It came thru up here about 25 mins ago and temp dropped from 73 to 66 so far.

[dhweather]

OMG we got trained for a little while, IT RAINED 1.23" AT MY HOUSE!@#

I saw something I haven't seen in months - water running off, not being absorbed by the ground. AMAZING.

[weatherdude1108]

Ewx discussion at noon.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1207 PM CDT TUE OCT 15 2013/

UPDATE...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WELL WARRANTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
NEW 12Z GFS MODEL OUTPUT SHOW COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION
BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
AND BEHIND THE FRONT. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...THE NEW FOCUS
WILL LIKELY BE ALONG THE 850 MILLIBAR FRONT DRAPED OVER OUR
NORTHERN CWA BY MIDNIGHT. THIS NEW FOCUSING BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH
A BROAD ENTRANCE REGION TO THE UPPER LEVEL JET TRAVERSING
NORTHEAST OVER THE 850 FRONTAL ZONE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINS AND RESULTANT FLASH FLOODING AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PUSH ACROSS. THE MAIN THREAT AREAS CONTINUE OVER THE
WESTERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU EASTWARD
THROUGH THE HILL COUNTRY TO THE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR LATE THIS
EVENING THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL TWEAK THE ONGOING
WATCH WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.

[Portastorm]

OMG we got trained for a little while, IT RAINED 1.23" AT MY HOUSE!@#

I saw something I haven't seen in months - water running off, not being absorbed by the ground. AMAZING.

Alright ... so quit griping already!

Besides, there will probably be several snow/ice events this winter which you'll cash in on while I'm building my cold rainman down here in Austin!

[weatherdude1108]

Anyone know what a Maddox frontal event is? I've never seen that before. They mention it in the Ewx discussion.

Is this the El Nino we were supposed to get last year? May it fall in just the right places with minimal damage!

My browser won't let me hightlight or bold the sections I want. Guess I have too much text in it. Anyway, you get the point.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
308 PM CDT TUE OCT 15 2013

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WELL WARRANTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
NEW 12Z GFS MODEL OUTPUT SHOW COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION
BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
AND BEHIND THE FRONT. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...THE NEW FOCUS
WILL LIKELY BE ALONG THE 850 MILLIBAR FRONT DRAPED OVER OUR
NORTHERN CWA BY MIDNIGHT. THIS NEW FOCUSING BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH
A BROAD ENTRANCE REGION TO THE UPPER LEVEL JET TRAVERSING
NORTHEAST OVER THE 850 FRONTAL ZONE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINS AND RESULTANT FLASH FLOODING AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PUSH EAST. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN RESEMBLES A MADDOX
FRONTAL EVENT..FLASH FLOOD MODEL...THAT RESEARCH HAS SHOWN PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING. THE MAIN THREAT AREAS CONTINUE OVER
THE WESTERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU EASTWARD
THROUGH THE HILL COUNTRY TO THE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR LATE THIS EVENING
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING. TRAINING OF INDIVIDUAL CONVECTIVE
CELLS ALONG AND BEHIND THE ELEVATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE LIKELY TO
PRODUCE SOME FLASH FLOODING. RAIN AMOUNTS AREA-WIDE WILL AVERAGE
1-2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE. LOWS
TOMORROW MORNING WILL REFLECT FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THE RAIN-COOLED
AIR-MASS WITH LOW TO MID 50S HILL COUNTRY TO THE LOW AND MID 60S OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. TOMORROW...THE COOL RIDGE WILL BUILD
SOUTH BUT CONTINUED WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND SHALLOW GULF
OVERRUNNING WILL PRODUCE LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS. HIGHS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S HILLS TO THE LOW 70S EXTREME
SOUTHERN TIER...SOME 20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA. LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM THE
WEST AND NORTH TOMORROW NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
LOWS WILL COOL INTO THE 40S HILLS WHILE HIGHS THURSDAY WARM INTO
THE 70S AREA-WIDE. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LOW CLOUDS WILL
RETURN FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITH MOIST
GULF OVERRUNNING SHOWERS OVER ALL BUT FAR WESTERN PORTIONS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY EVENING WITH AT LEAST A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. LIGHT
RAIN OR SPRINKLES WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY OVER ALL BUT FAR
WESTERN PORTIONS AS GULF OVERRUN CONTINUES. DRY SURFACE RIDGING
WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY. THE DRIER RIDGE PATTERN WILL ANCHOR
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. GFS MODEL BRINGS ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH IN THE SUBTROPICAL JET WITH INCREASING GULF AND UPPER
PACIFIC MOISTURE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.