Texas Fall 2013

[weatherdude1108]

Bob Rose has a new video blog. He predicts normal to above normal rain (not a drought-buster) and near normal temps for Fall and Winter.

Although a couple rain bombs in the right places could always "bust" the drought IMO.

http://www.lcra.org/water/conditions/we ... olumn.html

[South Texas Storms]

Wet weather will be returning to Texas this weekend and will likely continue through early next week! Please check out my latest weather article to see how much rain we could see throughout the next 7 days!
http://www.examiner.com/article/wet-weather-pattern-returns-to-texas

[ravyrn]

I also want to continue emphasizing that the important indices are going to tank. In a week or so we're going to see cold air masses sink its way south. Expect the second half of October to be very different than the first half.

We went from above average to around average temp-wise these last few days. How far below average do you expect us to go?

[Ntxw]

We went from above average to around average temp-wise these last few days. How far below average do you expect us to go?

Can't say for sure yet, the models are slowly latching on to the idea (latest euro). Parts of the southern plains (maybe northern half of Texas) may come close to its first frost and freeze outside the urban areas. The big player is the East Pacific Oscillation. It's going to tank, and with a slight SE ridge the core of the cold air and trough will dip straight down the plains.

[Portastorm]

A couple of quick Friday morning thoughts from the Portastorm Weather Center:

* Short term: good chances of several inches of rain for much of Texas in the next 3-4 days. If the Euro proves to be right on this, there could be some flooding issues out and about.

* Longer term: GFS continues to advertise a MAJOR cold front for late in the month. Highs in Austin around 10/25 would only reach low 50s! The Euro out to 10 days hints about that possibility but isn't nearly as bullish as the GFS is at this time.

* Real longer term: Various indices and long-term signs still point to a potentially cold and stormy first half of winter for the central US, including parts of Texas. The Grey Goose-swilling mets at the PWC honestly believe that some areas along the Red River and maybe even further south into the Metroplex and east into NE Texas very well may see snow or ice before New Years.

Have a great weekend everyone!

[dhweather]

I'm probably *cough* uploading the wrong image again, *ahem* but if this happens, I'll become a crack smoking monkey of the PWC.

[Ntxw]

Great stuff out of HQ! Love it.

Several days of rain still on tap, hoping for some convective rain.

Again, I want to reiterate...the EPO is going to tank, off the charts. It is the king and I will take it over all other signals when it comes to cold air moving into Texas. This will not be the warm ending to October we have seen the past few years.

[weatherdude1108]

Interesting/kind of eery comparing the current weather systems setup to October 17-22 1998. Very similar!

I remember back then emptying my dad's 5-inch rain gauge in the backyard in San Antonio several times that weekend to try to accurately keep adding up the totals. Had to write them down. Thankfully his house is on a hill!

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/assessments/pdfs/txflood.pdf

[JDawg512]

I remember that, was 18 at the time. I am wondering if the NWS is a bit conservative even with the latest update. I'm sitting outside right now here in South Austin and its sprinkling with a few periods of slightly heavier showers. The humidity is intense as it has been all of Friday and it just feels like its going to pour any time. To me it feels like a heavy rain event is about to happen. They are favoring the European model which is good so I'm pretty excited about the possibility of some high rainfall. Im gonna finish this post and head inside as its beginning to rain harder than just sprinkles.

[Portastorm]

I remember that, was 18 at the time. I am wondering if the NWS is a bit conservative even with the latest update. I'm sitting outside right now here in South Austin and its sprinkling with a few periods of slightly heavier showers. The humidity is intense as it has been all of Friday and it just feels like its going to pour any time. To me it feels like a heavy rain event is about to happen. They are favoring the European model which is good so I'm pretty excited about the possibility of some high rainfall. Im gonna finish this post and head inside as its beginning to rain harder than just sprinkles.

And if you read the morning AFD out of EWX, you'll also see where the Canadian ups the ante for us with tropical cyclone development in the Pacific which ultimately ends up over our heads. Should the Canadian verify ... look out! We could be looking at a Rosa Redux.

The pattern over the next 7-10 days looks very El Nino-ish to me.

[northtxboy]

Heavy rain in Windom right now!! Winds have really picked up, reminds me of a spring time storm.

[ravyrn]

Great stuff out of HQ! Love it.

Several days of rain still on tap, hoping for some convective rain.

Again, I want to reiterate...the EPO is going to tank, off the charts. It is the king and I will take it over all other signals when it comes to cold air moving into Texas. This will not be the warm ending to October we have seen the past few years.

I move to motion that we henceforth refer to the second half of October as Octobrrr. Does anyone second my motion?

[ravyrn]

When it gets windy or rainy, I am beginning to have to readopt my method of traveling that I used in the mountains of Colorado when I lived in the middle of the Natl Forest 15 miles from the nearest town (of 800 lol). I used to live up in the middle of the mountains around 9000 ft elevation in the middle of the San Juan Natl Forest. The only way to get to my cabin was Forest Service roads which get graded maybe once a year. It can get awfully windy up on the mountain, and the Aspens root system is so shallow, you will frequently encounter trees across the road (and likely see many fall as you sit in your cabin during a storm). When I stayed up on the mountains I always had to keep a chainsaw with me any time I left the cabin as you would almost certainly encounter a tree across the road at some point. I remember after one storm, I had to saw out 14 trees between the cabin and town.

Anyways, that's what travel is becoming for me in the woods of East Texas. This evening I drove from my home near Jacksonville, TX to the rural home of my mom about 10 miles away as the crow flies. I encountered 3 trees across the road as well as countless large branches. I cut two of the three trees out of the road and probably picked up and tossed about 8 large branches across the road. If we had gotten a tropical system this season, I would hate to imagine what it would have done to the area. I arrived at my mom's for dinner and the power had gone out a few minutes before I got there. So we ate supper in the dark in candle light. As I was about to leave, the power began to come back on, and then we heard two separate transformers blow. I'm back home now with power I imagine they won't have any for quite a while.

It will be interesting to see what the first squall line w/ high winds does to the area. Everything that was brought down today was likely just from the extra weight from the rain on the branches, as it certainly wasn't windy.

[JDawg512]

FINALLY, rain has suddenly developed over Austin. I was gelously watching the radar all day if areas so close to Austin getting storms, looks like things will be getting interesting overnight.

[weatherdude1108]

Yeah, it started raining a half hour ago for first time today here in north Austin. Stopped temporarily. I agree. Could be interesting tonight!

[weatherdude1108]

I remember that, was 18 at the time. I am wondering if the NWS is a bit conservative even with the latest update. I'm sitting outside right now here in South Austin and its sprinkling with a few periods of slightly heavier showers. The humidity is intense as it has been all of Friday and it just feels like its going to pour any time. To me it feels like a heavy rain event is about to happen. They are favoring the European model which is good so I'm pretty excited about the possibility of some high rainfall. Im gonna finish this post and head inside as its beginning to rain harder than just sprinkles.

And if you read the morning AFD out of EWX, you'll also see where the Canadian ups the ante for us with tropical cyclone development in the Pacific which ultimately ends up over our heads. Should the Canadian verify ... look out! We could be looking at a Rosa Redux.

The pattern over the next 7-10 days looks very El Nino-ish to me.

It DOES seem El Niñoish!

[JDawg512]

It has been raining non stop here in South Austin since my last post. Checked my gauges and its approaching 1.75 inches and rising. The storm is training over the same area, in the last 5 min been getting very close and frequent lightning so this storm is intensifying again. I'm surprised there has not been a flash flood warning issued for this part of Travis county. There is literally a river flowing through my yard.

[Portastorm]

In what has to be one of the most amazing storms we've experienced at the Portastorm Weather Center in recent memory ... we've logged close to 5 inches of rainfall in the last 3 hours. Around 10 p.m. the heavy rain began and hasn't really ended until the last minutes. At times through the event we experienced numerous cloud-to-ground lightning strikes very close to the PWC! Light rain still falling but the LCRA rain gauge closest to our location reads 5.96 inches in the last 6 hours. I know my rain gauge as best as I could tell with the reading was closer to 5. Still ... what an event!

[JDawg512]

Yes, we are in ground zero. Water is coming into my house, thank goodness the rain has slowed. I'm listening to the ems/fire and police scanners and multiple water rescues are happening all around the area including one 3 blocks from my house. I'm a few blocks north from Williamson Creek and I know its rising and likely flooding the low lying areas in the neighborhood. I have not been able to check my rain gauges due to the frequent lightning and desperately moving stuff from the room that water is coming into.

[cheezyWXguy]

I cannot believe the kind of rain we are getting here in college station. In a matter of minutes the roads were seriously flooded and winds have been gusting to at least 60. Ive been through several severe thunderstorms here and this is the first to make my power flicker, and I honestly dont think Ive ever seen it rain this hard before.