Texas Fall 2013

[srainhoutx]

^^

That`s because there is an EPAC tropical system in the cards making landfall near the Baja Peninsula and spreading deep tropical moisture across Mexico into Texas. A stalled boundary and an approaching deep Western trough/cold core 5H low in October mixed with a potential EPAC storm are a recipe for a heavy rainfall event across the Lone Star State. We will see.

[weatherdude1108]

I'm hoping so! I know it's obvious by now, but Central Texas needs all of the storms they can get. Our regional area meteorologist Bob Rose also hints at the potential "interesting weather situation.":

We have a very interesting weather situation setting up Monday into Tuesday as the cold front stalls in the vicinity of Interstate 35. Some of today’s forecast solutions indicate a significant amount of Pacific and Gulf moisture will funnel into Texas both days, leading to a good chance for rain. There’s still much uncertainty, but significant totals of rain are not out of the question.

http://www.lcra.org/water/conditions/we ... olumn.html

[JDawg512]

Some thoughts this Sunday morning:

* An Austin-area shout out to JDawg512! Dude, you're as sick as the rest of us with your middle of the night posts about the line of storms we had and the subsequent rainfall. Love it! You're going to fit right in here, sir.

Hey thanks for the warm welcome. Im looking forward to some great weather events with everyone here!!

[Portastorm]

Both the 0z Euro and GFS continue the suggestion that a very wet period may be on the horizon for much of Texas, beginning this weekend and stretching into the middle of next week. Let's hope this encouraging trend continues!

[dhweather]

:uarrow:

I don't know what interests me more ... the place where you got those maps or what the maps show! I never have seen the Euro depicted in such a user-friendly way. You might want to be careful though in sharing those maps with us since they're pay-per-view. Just sayin.

I know, I hate it when that happens. I guess I uploaded the wrong images I meant to share.

[Portastorm]

:uarrow:

I don't know what interests me more ... the place where you got those maps or what the maps show! I never have seen the Euro depicted in such a user-friendly way. You might want to be careful though in sharing those maps with us since they're pay-per-view. Just sayin.

I know, I hate it when that happens. I guess I uploaded the wrong images I meant to share.

What images? I have no idea what you're talking about ...

[dhweather]

Boy, I'm liking what I'm seeing in the Euro for Sun-Fri , hope it verifies. W E T !!

[Ntxw]

Does appear that the trend has been good for this weekend onto next week. October is a wet month for Texas, so lets hope it delivers.

[Ntxw]

Here is the latest HPC map for next 7 days and as dhweather has mentioned euro looks very promising.



Extra tidbit: In the very long range (DJF) there are some very interesting hints that some of us may enjoy, except for maybe one, that a specific pattern may set up over the NE Pacific.

[Portastorm]

The Grey Goose-swilling mets at the Portastorm Weather Center support the comment made by the North Texas satellite office about this coming winter. More and more data is coming in and the idea is coming into focus that we may see a somewhat persistent trough over the central US ... one which would bring the coldest air into the Plains and Midwest and provide an active jet stream over the state when these storms "bottom out" at the base of the trough.

Stand by for more details as our offices trade information and coordinate our forecasts.

Oh ... and we advise wxman57 to get in as much bike riding as he can between now and Thanksgiving. After that, his opportunities may be limited.

[Ntxw]

As being discussed with HQ down in scenic SW Austin, the medium range forecast for October is one to watch. A tanking -EPO this time of year almost always equates to cold air moving south into the Plains. After this wet period we are about to see, I would keep an eye out for some early sweater weather.

[Tireman4]

Oh ... and we advise wxman57 to get in as much bike riding as he can between now and Thanksgiving. After that, his opportunities may be limited.

Quoting Beavis....." Yeah, yeah,,ahem..yeah yeah"

[Ntxw]

Guidance overnight continues to advertise a prolonged period of rainfall for much of Texas. What's interesting is that the trough associated is slow to kick out and may give us several impulses over many days to provide lift. In addition 94E is showing potential development by the euro and being pulled up by the trough.

Both the GFS and Euro show anywhere between 2-5+ inches over a period of several days. -EPO/+PNA definitely supports shortwaves diving south and into Texas.

[srainhoutx]

The overnight guidance continues to advertise a very wet and stormy pattern for portions of the Southern Plains and locations E into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. Locations in Mexico, Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas and Northern Louisiana may see rainfall totals exceeding 3-5 inches with higher isolated totals where training storms may develop. The European suite is suggesting a potential multi day significant heavy rainfall event beginning Saturday and extending into mid next week as a complex pattern develops with a deep Western trough, a potent shortwave disturbance and 94E currently developing offshore of Acapulco moves NW and turns ENE across the Baja Peninsula and spreads deep tropical moisture across the Region where PW's above 2 inches will be in place across Texas ahead of the advancing trough. Such EPAC systems combined with the above mentioned trough/shortwave pattern in October have led to significant rainfall events in past years and will need to be monitored closely the next several days.

[wxman57]

GFS doesn't indicate much rain for Houston ahead of next Tuesday's front. Just a few light showers Sat/Sun and maybe 1/4" of rain Tuesday with the front. Temps climbing up near 90 this weekend looks great for biking. Hope I CAN bike this weekend. Hurt my knee last week, possibly partly dislocated it. Would like to say it was from something like jumping off the roof of my house or crashing while descending a mountain on my bike, but it was turning over in bed that injured the knee.

[weatherdude1108]

Things may get interesting across most of Texas this weekend/early next week! I would assume the surface and subsurface soils would probably not soak up as much of the water as in previous weeks as temperatures have been overall lower and the soil moisture profile has been able to increase. Plus, the hill country where a lot of the rivers and streams/lakes are has a much shallower soil profile, which should help saturate things to run off where needed! Anyway, looking forward to WET and COOL temperatures!



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
600 AM CDT WED OCT 9 2013

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
WHILE A BIG PORTION OF ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE WRN US TROUGH EJECTS
NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY FRIDAY...A BROADER UPPER TROUGH
REMAINS INTACT OVER THE WESTERN US AND WILL BRING INSTABILITY AND
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS. A SIGNIFICANT
INFLUENCE ON THIS DESTABILIZING PATTERN IS A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY DEVELOPING SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO.
THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE AS NOTED BY THE NHC IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OUTLOOK. MODELS
HAVE SHOWN SOME VARIATIONS ON TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM
WHICH COULD CREATE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON MESOSCALE FEATURES...BUT
MOST SHOW MUCH OF THIS TROPICAL ENERGY BEING CARRIED EAST ACROSS
TX SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL NOT ADVERTISE A HEAVY
RAIN THREAT FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT A FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE AREA BY
AROUND MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND THE FRONT HAS A CHANCE TO GREATLY
ENHANCE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IF WELL TIMED WITH A STORM THAT COULD
LIFT NORTH TO THE BAJA PENINSULA.


A LOW-CONFIDENCE BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WAS CHOSEN FOR THEPERIOD...WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
PRIOR TO THE APPROACH OF THE EARLY WEEK FRONT. QPF AMOUNTS OVER
THE PERIOD ARE AT A CONSERVATIVE 1-3 INCHES...WITH THESE AMOUNTS
PROBABLE TO INCREASE AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES ON THE TRACK OF THE
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE CHANCE OF RAIN
INCREASING SUBSTANTIALLY BY DAYTIME SATURDAY WITH RAIN AND A HIGH
PWAT ENVIRONMENT CURBING DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TEMPERATURE RANGES
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE GENERAL TREND OF THE FRONT FROM
THE 00Z RUNS IS STRONGER THAN ADVERTISED BY PREVIOUS RUNS...WITH
THE ECMWF MORE HESITANT TO CLEAR THE MOISTURE AND LOWER
TEMPERATURES AS MUCH AS THE GFS ON TUESDAY.

[Portastorm]

EWX remains quite bullish for rain this weekend into next week for south central Texas ... possibly flooding rains! Here is the long-range snippet from their afternoon AFD just issued:

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
ON FRIDAY...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR AS THE
ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE TROPICAL. PWATS OF 1.5 INCHES PUSH
NORTHWARD OVER THIS AREA. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE 80S. RICH GULF
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ITS SURGE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS PWATS RISE TO NEAR 2 INCHES OVER
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. THE INCREASINGLY
BUOYANT AIR-MASS WILL RESULT IN MORE FAVORABLE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
EASTERN HILL COUNTRY. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE 80S WITH NEAR 90 SOUTHERN FRINGES. CONVECTION
OVER THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WILL
ADVECT NORTHEAST INTO OUR REGION SUNDAY ADDING ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. AT LEAST A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY OVER A LARGE SWATH OF THE CENTRAL
CWA. HIGHS IN THE 80S. TROPIC-LIKE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90. WITH THE AREA UNDER
A PROLONG PERIOD OF TROPIC-LIKE CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...THE BUOYANT ATMOSPHERE WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
SOME OF WHICH MAY GIVE LOCALIZED FLOODING. THE UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTS INTO THE U.S. SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SLIP THROUGH OUR REGION TUESDAY WITH CONTINUED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. COOLER DRIER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

[weatherdude1108]

HPC upped their recent prediction.



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[Rgv20]

I'm going to Denton tomorrow for a week, looks like a dry drive from the RGV all the way up to North Texas. Looks like a wet weekend for me in North Texas!

[Ntxw]

I also want to continue emphasizing that the important indices are going to tank. In a week or so we're going to see cold air masses sink its way south. Expect the second half of October to be very different than the first half.