ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

[hurricanes1234]

Looks rather sheared and starved right now to say the least. Again, I have no meteorological expertise, but in my opinion, this would likely remain at the same intensity or even weaken before landfall. Why? Because there is absolutely nothing here to indicate a favourable environment. Shear is intense enough to completely decouple any system in its path, dry air is creeping up on the storm's center, and of course, the LLC is completely detached from the convection. I find it hard to believe anything this season will live up to its expectations.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[summersquall]

[img]http://i39.tinypic.com/2yuwo5k.jpg[/mg]
Aric -- around 24.5N 88.5W?

25.1167N 89.3333W from recon..

Thank you. Maybe it is already feeling the effects of the trough.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Just got home and pulled up the ole satellite loops to see what the latest is and there is nothing there. Just a naked swirl with some convection being blown off to the east. I am starting to wonder if this will even make it through the night much less tomorrow. Reminds me of that naked invest off the Texas coast a couple weeks back that moved over us and never received a drop of rain from it.

[HurriGuy]

Why am I 60 miles inland in Louisiana and have a 80% chance of rain Saturday and 60% chance of rain Sunday? I thought some pro-mets said hardly any rain for our area?

[Mouton]

Given the steering winds, approaching front, and the dry mass to the west, looks to me like Karen is headed toward north of Cedar Key Florida. The NAM is slightly above that concept with a sharp right and following the coast a tad more inland.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[tolakram]

Full 30 frame live visible.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=27&lon=-89&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=30&map=latlon

[robbielyn]

Why am I 60 miles inland in Louisiana and have a 80% chance of rain Saturday and 60% chance of rain Sunday? I thought some pro-mets said hardly any rain for our area?

because a cold front is passing thru your area maybe?

[wxman57]

Why am I 60 miles inland in Louisiana and have a 80% chance of rain Saturday and 60% chance of rain Sunday? I thought some pro-mets said hardly any rain for our area?

The percent chance of rain says nothing about how much rain you might get. Perhaps those forecasting for south Louisiana are assuming that Karen will have squalls 100+ miles to its north? That's a bad assumption. There will be some scattered showers around south Louisiana, but unless you're at the mouth of the Mississippi you'll probably measure less than 1/2" of rain. Of course, there's the cold front that will be sweeping through Louisiana, too. It will have a little rain with it, but not much.

[robbielyn]

Ok I am not looking at weather channel anymore....local stations aren't forecasting what they are saying. When y'all think Tropical Storm Watches will be discontinued this far inland?

Its wise to always go with your local are met instead of weather channel since they arent where you are at and have local radar and local information that wtc doesn't have. They give broad information that could be true or not be true where your local met can monitor the local area weather and give you real time data

[HurriGuy]

WOW...GFS stalls this out for quite a while for shooting it off to the east.

[Airboy]

Don't moving much right now, just jumping in place.

[robbielyn]

original llc separating from convection

[robbielyn]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-wv.html

where's bones? after all she's bone dry. shes disappating

[HurriGuy]

Moving north again looking at visible before sun goes down. Gotta figure NHC bumps down to 6 or 5 mph. From what everyone has been saying and looking at overall structure, gotta figure these inland tropical storm watches for LA will be discontinued by tomorrow. Highly doubting we get TS winds looking at recon.

[HurricaneTracker2031]

hmmm.... can the other coc take over?

[Janie2006]

Bones is still in Sickbay, nowhere near time for him....yet.

[robbielyn]

im not seeing the new center wrapping the convection around itself. doubt it will sustain itself

[HurricaneTracker2031]

awww. another victim of the 2013 season

[robbielyn]

Bones is still in Sickbay, nowhere near time for him....yet.

why do u say that? look at watervapor sat and visible convection detaching itself from the original llc. one patch of purple blob with light blue on the rest of the system. doesnt even look like a ts anymore or act like one.

[HurricaneTracker2031]