ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

[HurriGuy]

Hot tower alert

[HurriGuy]

I'm starting to buy in it's all an optical allusion. Back to the sense that it is still on it's NNW motion.

[HURAKAN]

uff, a bit dry!

[robbielyn]

Definitely a turn to the north.. maybe just right of do north..

I put up forecast plots the llc is still in line for the next plot if it stays on course, the convection pulled away a tab from the llc toward the east giving the illusion that the llc changed a little to the right of north.

THe last recon fix was also a north motion...

wasnt disputing the N turn as this is in consistant with the plots, just the "right of due north" part thats all lol.

[Nimbus]

Sounds like no low level inflow at the moment which is good news. I lost my dial up window till I can find a deal for roadrunner or 4G but based on the text descriptions i've been reading on my cell phone I haven't missed much.

[HurriGuy]

Rain building fast to the north. SE LA including myself might be seeing raindrops soon. My camp in GI is under mandatory evacuation. Wish us the best.

Heading down to get boat and valuables now.

[Time_Zone]

Looking absolutely terrible again today.

No chance this thing ever manages to become a hurricane. Willing to bet it peaked yesterday

[Lane]

Llc is exposed again, wxman57 hit the nail on the head.

[deltadog03]

just another system in this 2013

[tolakram]

The GFS and the Euro have this weakening for 24 hours so no surprise there, then conditions appear to improve and this is when the GFS improves the system and sends it east, while the euro sends a weak system near or onto the LA coast and then shunts it east along the coast, getting moderately stronger before landfall.

So regardless of what happens this should be weakening over the next 24 hours before coming back to life, IMO. The only real question is if it will weaken as much as some of the models say it will.

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[Airboy]

I think she will start to improve and get stronger again from now on, signs of more convection near the center again.

[Dave]

Wheels up and enroute back to Karen now...

[HurriGuy]

It may have had a slight wobble to the north, but IMO it is still moving generally NNW. Maybe a hair more to the north.

[wxman57]

Buoy 42001 is 27nm to the ENE of the center, right in the max wind zone. Reporting 37 kts now, up to 39 kts in the past hour. That appears to be the peak wind in Karen. And, again, it's striking how the winds across the NW Gulf are blowing AWAY from Karen's center. There's no convergence! Here's a screenshot from a little while ago when that buoy just ENE of the center had 39 kts. I added white arrows to indicate the wind direction for those of you who might not be familiar with how to read a weather map.

By the way, on my workstation I have the center moving toward 012 deg for the past 3 hrs. It's moved 14nm in that time, about 5 kts.



Buoy:
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42001

[GCANE]

What is firing off close to the LLC is high rain-rate.

Could likely be a hot tower.

[HurriGuy]

Buoy 42001 is 27nm to the ENE of the center, right in the max wind zone. Reporting 37 kts now, up to 39 kts in the past hour. That appears to be the peak wind in Karen. And, again, it's striking how the winds across the NW Gulf are blowing AWAY from Karen's center. There's no convergence! Here's a screenshot from a little while ago when that buoy just ENE of the center had 39 kts. I added white arrows to indicate the wind direction for those of you who might not be familiar with how to read a weather map.

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/karen1.jpg

Buoy:
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42001

I am still learning and you mind explain what is meant by no convergence? thx!

[robbielyn]

you can see the convection being PUSHED to the east by a wall of sheer, it won't let it wrap around.

[wxman57]

I am still learning and you mind explain what is meant by no convergence? thx!

"Convergence" is air moving together toward a common point, like the center of a tropical storm. When the surrounding air moves toward the center of a storm it has nowhere to go but up. This helps squalls to build near the center. That leads to intensification. But when the air around a storm is blowing away from the center, it's hard for the storm to maintain squalls near the center. This will result in weakening or at least an inability to strengthen.

Here's a good website explaining convergence and divergence:
http://www.hko.gov.hk/education/edu01met/wxphe/ele-condiv-e.htm

[HurriGuy]

Thank you woman!! Make plenty of sense why there has been no intensification.

[JonathanBelles]

Buoy 42001 is 27nm to the ENE of the center, right in the max wind zone. Reporting 37 kts now, up to 39 kts in the past hour. That appears to be the peak wind in Karen. And, again, it's striking how the winds across the NW Gulf are blowing AWAY from Karen's center. There's no convergence! Here's a screenshot from a little while ago when that buoy just ENE of the center had 39 kts. I added white arrows to indicate the wind direction for those of you who might not be familiar with how to read a weather map.

By the way, on my workstation I have the center moving toward 012 deg for the past 3 hrs. It's moved 14nm in that time, about 5 kts.

image omitted

Buoy:
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42001

I assume the current reason that there is no convergence on the western side of Karen is because of the strong cold front coming down the Rockies and into the central Plains. In a national perspective, Karen is in the warm sector of that system.