ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.2N 90.0W
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

[wxman57]

NHC actually indicates the storm has the potential to deepen after 24 hrs in their 5 am discussion.

That's true, just as it was forecast to be strengthening to near hurricane strength today. That's certainly not happening. Max FL wind from recon is just over 50 kts. SFMR and buoys indicate surface winds 35 kts.

[GCANE]

Shear is dropping

[GCANE]

Still has good boundary-layer moisture convergence.

No significant dry-air entrainment.

High theta-e air is feeding into it.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/natl/main.html

[GCANE]

Also seeing a significant 2C boundary-layer inversion.

This is also inhibiting convection.

So, basically moisture is feeding into Karen but it just can't lift into the upper troposphere so it can condense and fire off convection.

[HurriGuy]

They keep pushing track west I see

[tolakram]

They keep pushing track west I see

But landfall location pretty much unchanged. It's all about that last minute bend.

Archive loop: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2013/graphics/al12/loop_5W.shtml

[stormkite]

Dearly departed we are gathered here today.

[HurriGuy]

It is if you have a camp in Grand Isle. If they move it anymore over, then Grand Isle might be on the east side. Hoping that does not happen.

[tolakram]

Latest saved wind shear map. It is moving into lower shear, 20kts vs the 25kts from yesterday and last night. Not great by any stretch, but shear is not getting worse.



http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=shr&zoom=&time=

[HurriGuy]

At the rate it is going it will be pass 91W by the next update. Cannot believe this has yet to turn. Winds are turning out the SW in Texas.

[Frank P]

Looks to me it is approaching 90.1 or even 90.2 west on the IF rainbow enhanced sat loops... it is not supposed to go past 90.4 w per the NHC... so if this is going to come to fruition we should see more of a due north path starting today... I remember Isidore back in 2002 and she came in as a naked swirl with winds around 60 mph at Biloxi.. had an impressive surge as well (8-9 feet as I recall) she had a very large wind field which contributed to the surge and came at a right angle to the coast ... because of Karen's angle to the coast as she makes landfall to the NE, it will be nothing like Isidore surge wise... they are saying 3-5 feet max... provided of course the forecast does not change... my opinion only...

[wxman57]

I think the Euro is nailing it since yesterday. My track takes it to 28.1N/91.5W before it starts turning ENE. Moves just off the LA coast from GI east then into Panama City Sunday. Probably low-end TS winds on LA coast and FL panhandle.

[GCANE]

It doesn't look like the ULL at 25N 65W has coupled into Karen and created an outflow channel

Might see some improvement in Karen's strength if it does.


http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+24

[ROCK]

I think the Euro is nailing it since yesterday. My track takes it to 28.1N/91.5W before it starts turning ENE. Moves just off the LA coast from GI east then into Panama City Sunday. Probably low-end TS winds on LA coast and FL panhandle.

yep, the EURO really has outperformed all of the globals with Karen. good job EURO!!!

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I don't think it matters much frank, the tenths of degrees west. Maybe just scrape lower plaquemines parish then head over towards Pensacola or further east. Only way I see this affecting us and ms more is if the cmc comes to fruition, which I think I have a better shot at winning the lotteryn

But its not looking so hot right now and if the shear and especially dry air keep on attacking, this might be nithing more than a weak storm like the cmc shows.

[Frank P]

I don't think it matters much frank, the tenths of degrees west. Maybe just scrape lower plaquemines parish then head over towards Pensacola or further east. Only way I see this affecting us and ms more is if the cmc comes to fruition, which I think I have a better shot at winning the lotteryn

But its not looking so hot right now and if the shear and especially dry air keep on attacking, this might be nithing more than a weak storm like the cmc shows.

Yeah Mike I hear ya.. I was hoping for a few nice feeder bands on the coast but I might not even see that.... 2013 overhyped and overrated.... can only imagine what Karen could have done with just normal GOM conditions, she does have quite the vigorous LL swirl, albeit quite naked at the moment... anyhoo at least we got into the cone this year...

[SouthernMet]

Karen still struggling with shear on the west side.. Also important to note that she is still moving NW, some expected the right turn at this point (or atleast a due north track)

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track.

AL, 12, 2013100412, , BEST, 0, 252N, 901W, 45, 1003, TS, 34, NEQ, 120, 110, 0, 60, 1011, 120, 35, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, KAREN, M,

[Dean4Storms]

Appears to be moving into less shear now, newest convection not moving off to the NE nearly as fast as the convection well to its SE. Also last couple frames appears to have made a slight turn back more NNW, might be the turn starting. Believe we see a better looking storm by later today.