ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

[ConvergenceZone]

I respectfully disagree. This isn't a government shutdown of a forecast lol. This is the NHC talking.



My opinion and statements DO NOT represent the opinion of the NHC, NWS, or any other professional agency, organization, or group. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

And they have been wrong many times
I'm sure they will even be the first to tell ya that......

[Annie Oakley]

Convergence........you must be a math major lol.
You got me there.......

So............will she be a TS or a Hurricane by landfall? And the projectory site?

[ConvergenceZone]

Convergence........you must be a math major lol.
You got me there.......

So............will she be a TS or a Hurricane by landfall? And the projectory site?

Just saying.....If there wasn't such thing as speculation when it comes to weather, we all wouldn't be here. We would all just listen to the forecast of what Karen suppose to do and that would be the end of the discussion because everything would be set in stone... But as the the year 2013(that suppose to have been a very active year) clearly has shown, there's much speculation when it comes to weather....

P.S. Not a math major...I trade stocks for a living

[Macrocane]

Convection blown away from the center again, MLC is now well east of the LLC, I guees the fluctuations in convection will be the story until landfall.

[stephen23]

Is it possible that it is trying to reform to the east under where the convection is firing up? Kind of appears there is some spin in that area as well.

[SFLcane]

Ugly..ugly..ugly.. maybe some warnings for that naked swirl approaching the gulfcoast.

Personally i hope the end of this horrid season is near.

[Hammy]

so far winds are only 40-45 mph, and they're flying in this time from the strongest quadrant.

[WeatherGuesser]

The NHC discussion has dropped hurricane strength because of this increase in shear expected soon. I can fully imagine this happening, for some reason.

Yea, looks like the only thing we will get out of it is a breezy rainmaker. I imagine since they are no longer expecting a hurricane that they will diminish the winds even further as it gets closer to land. It looked 10X better last night.....

This is straight oout of the latest advisory.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO...AND KAREN COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH LATE FRIDAY AND
EARLY SATURDAY.
Doesn't look like they have dropped it yet.

From the 11PM Forecast Discussion:

IT IS BECOMING LESS REALISTIC THAT KAREN WILL BECOME A HURRICANE IN A
DAY OR TWO...

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 24.2N 89.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 25.5N 89.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 26.9N 90.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 28.0N 90.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 06/0000Z 29.2N 89.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 07/0000Z 32.5N 84.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 08/0000Z 36.5N 79.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED

[robbielyn]

thunderstorms heading east far away from the naked center

[HURAKAN]

What do wind shear, dry air and Charlie Sheen have in common?





















they're winning!

[robbielyn]

divorce is such a sad thing center and convection going in opposite directions

[caneman]

The LLC is about 100 miles West of the action. Even if the LLC does go over Louisiana or Miss. I'm not sure that you would even know other than some wind. The only chance if for it is to slow down and turn NE or East (going with the shear) and then maybe the LLC and MLC will stack again.

Just my opinion.

[hurricanes1234]

I don't think this'll reintensify just yet. Given the season we've had so far, the shear has always been underestimated in storms going through it, and again, I bring up the example of Ingrid, when it was forecast to strengthen right up until landfall, but it actually weakened from 85 mph to 65 mph during that period. I'm not saying it wouldn't restrengthen, but this season, shear has always increased suddenly when it was forecasted to abate.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[ronjon]

NHC actually indicates the storm has the potential to deepen after 24 hrs in their 5 am discussion.

[beoumont]

What do wind shear, dry air and Charlie Sheen have in common?

They end up naked swirls.

[Dean4Storms]

These more NW turns and not more northerly are cutting back the time this would reach the upper Gulf Coast, maybe the GFS is correct with Karen missing the upper Gulf Coast altogether and instead heading toward the FL Peninsula.

[jlauderdal]

What do wind shear, dry air and Charlie Sheen have in common? they're winning!

certainly not #winning

[jlauderdal]

[quote="HURAKAN"]What do wind shear, dry air and Charlie Sheen have in common?










certainly not #winning

the thinking by the board last sunday and moinday that the system would be doomed as it headed towards the coast and sure enough that is what is happening although that didnt look to verify late Weds but yesterday was not a good day for this system..the dynamics were never really there for a hurricane even though some of the modeling was suggesting that....it was never a very favorable setup...think there is one more shot down the road for something and that should be it for this season

[Red eye]

Karen is almost completely void of convection this morning. Looks to be heading NorthWest too. Maybe the Euro of a couple of days ago was right; Weak Tropical Depression coming right up the Vermilion Bay. Interesting

[GCANE]

Definitely running naked

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/12L/imagery/rgb_lalo-animated.gif

Vorticity column has now tipped and is not as well stacked as yesterday afternoon.

200mb PV anomaly is now positioned just west of the LLC.

This is causing the vorticity column to bend to the east with respect to vertical height.

It is also causing a downdraft on the west side of the LLC which in inhibiting convection.

This needs to clear up if Karen has any chance of intensifying.