ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

[summersquall]

Convection is building.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Diurnal maximum should be interesting. Convection is already expanding over the low-level center.

Shear will increase soon.

Perhaps. Most dynamical models continue to indicate strengthening tomorrow anyways.

A storm moving with shear will not be impacted nearly as much as one moving against it.

[deltadog03]

Thats what people need to understand...Storms moving *with Shear* will not be as negatively effected as if moving into *or against* the shear will destroy it.

[hurricanes1234]

The NHC discussion has dropped hurricane strength because of this increase in shear expected soon. I can fully imagine this happening, for some reason.

[Annie Oakley]

Thats what people need to understand...Storms moving *with Shear* will not be as negatively effected as if moving into *or against* the shear will destroy it.

So elementary, yet so profound.

Thanks Deltadog03

[SunnyThoughts]

I see in the recon thread where the hurricane hunters are headed back out later. Am I reading it correctly ..around 1am?

[deltadog03]

oh its all good Annie...I was just pointing out that YES, there will be shear no doubt, but it could be not as destructive as it could because of the what the shear is and the way she is moving.

[ConvergenceZone]

The NHC discussion has dropped hurricane strength because of this increase in shear expected soon. I can fully imagine this happening, for some reason.

Yea, looks like the only thing we will get out of it is a breezy rainmaker. I imagine since they are no longer expecting a hurricane that they will diminish the winds even further as it gets closer to land. It looked 10X better last night.....

[AJC3]

This seems to be a yearly thing on here about "storms moving with the shear" having lower storm relative shear values.

30 knots of wind shear is 30 knots of wind shear - relative to the low level wind vector used in the shear calculation. If this vector is not representative of the storm's forward motion, then you can say that's the case - i.e. the S/R shear is lower than advertised.

However, if the low level wind vector used in the shear calculation changes, and you still have model guidance advertising 30kt of shear, than you still have 30 knots of shear. What that is telling you is that the magnitude of the upper level winds are increasing enough to keep that same amount of shear of the system.

[vbhoutex]

The NHC discussion has dropped hurricane strength because of this increase in shear expected soon. I can fully imagine this happening, for some reason.

Yea, looks like the only thing we will get out of it is a breezy rainmaker. I imagine since they are no longer expecting a hurricane that they will diminish the winds even further as it gets closer to land. It looked 10X better last night.....

This is straight oout of the latest advisory.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO...AND KAREN COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH LATE FRIDAY AND
EARLY SATURDAY.
Doesn't look like they have dropped it yet.

[Annie Oakley]

Operative words 'with the shear', as Delta has said.

[psyclone]

This seems to be a yearly thing on here about "storms moving with the shear" having lower storm relative shear values.

30 knots of wind shear is 30 knots of wind shear - relative to the low level wind vector used in the shear calculation. If this vector is not representative of the storm's forward motion, then you can say that's the case - i.e. the S/R shear is lower than advertised.

However, if the low level wind vector used in the shear calculation changes, and you still have model guidance advertising 30kt of shear, than you still have 30 knots of shear. What that is telling you is that the magnitude of the upper level winds are increasing enough to keep that same amount of shear of the system.

thanks for the clarification. that makes perfect sense. if the system is "moving with the shear" then by definition the shear is mitigated or eliminated.

[Annie Oakley]

Patience is a virtue.

[summersquall]

The NHC discussion has dropped hurricane strength because of this increase in shear expected soon. I can fully imagine this happening, for some reason.

Yea, looks like the only thing we will get out of it is a breezy rainmaker. I imagine since they are no longer expecting a hurricane that they will diminish the winds even further as it gets closer to land. It looked 10X better last night.....

This is straight oout of the latest advisory.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO...AND KAREN COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH LATE FRIDAY AND
EARLY SATURDAY.
Doesn't look like they have dropped it yet.

Nor did they drop the Hurricane Watch areas along the MS/AL/Fl coast.

[ozonepete]

This seems to be a yearly thing on here about "storms moving with the shear" having lower storm relative shear values.

30 knots of wind shear is 30 knots of wind shear - relative to the low level wind vector used in the shear calculation. If this vector is not representative of the storm's forward motion, then you can say that's the case - i.e. the S/R shear is lower than advertised.

However, if the low level wind vector used in the shear calculation changes, and you still have model guidance advertising 30kt of shear, than you still have 30 knots of shear. What that is telling you is that the magnitude of the upper level winds are increasing enough to keep that same amount of shear of the system.

thanks for the clarification. that makes perfect sense. if the system is "moving with the shear" then by definition the shear is mitigated or eliminated.

Yeah but that's not what AJ is saying. He's saying that many people here are misinterpreting the shear forecasts. He's saying that "moving with the shear" is already calculated into the shear forecasts you see from model guidance. So if SHIPS says there will be 30 knots of shear over Karen tomorrow or Saturday, you can't say it will effectively be less than 30 knots because the storm is moving with the shear. If you look at the CIMSS shear charts you can do that, because they don't show storm relative shear. But you can't do it with model forecasts like SHIPS because it's already calculated in. So everyone should be careful about which shear forecast they are talking about.

[HURAKAN]

mid-level relative humidity is also expected to continue to drop as KAREN moves north

[maxx9512]

Thanks Ozone for explaining what AJ said. I now finally understand exactly how the shear forecasts work after all this time.

[ConvergenceZone]

The NHC discussion has dropped hurricane strength because of this increase in shear expected soon. I can fully imagine this happening, for some reason.

Yea, looks like the only thing we will get out of it is a breezy rainmaker. I imagine since they are no longer expecting a hurricane that they will diminish the winds even further as it gets closer to land. It looked 10X better last night.....

This is straight oout of the latest advisory.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO...AND KAREN COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH LATE FRIDAY AND
EARLY SATURDAY.
Doesn't look like they have dropped it yet.

Hehe, call me skeptical I guess based upon what we've experienced in 2013 thus far....
I just think that based upon the current trend and how it looks on Satellite that they may start to reduce the projected winds even further...


Disclaimer: Any opinions I make are solely based on years of watching the tropics and nothing more. I'm not a meteorologist, so please consult Mets for official forecasts....

[Annie Oakley]

I respectfully disagree. This isn't a government shutdown of a forecast lol. This is the NHC talking.
















My opinion and statements DO NOT represent the opinion of the NHC, NWS, or any other professional agency, organization, or group. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[stormkite]

Patience is a virtue.

Absolutely i would not have some of these guy's as a poker partner.