ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

[Janie2006]

Aesthetically speaking, that's one beauty of an invest. As good as you're likely to see without an upgrade.

[psyclone]

Aesthetically speaking, that's one beauty of an invest. As good as you're likely to see without an upgrade.

I concur. the classic late season hot spot is percolating. I wouldn't be surprised if this region pops a couple more before we draw the curtains on the season.

[Aric Dunn]

I would say all systems are a GO. I am super curious to see if the upper anti-cyclone can keep moving with it into the GOM.

through the day it has been moving in tandem.. so we shall see.. I would assume if the trough applfies enough and the shear as it approaches the gulf coast is in the direction of movement as in many cases (no need to name the many many systems with that setup) That it could intensify and the opposite is of course true. .

[ConvergenceZone]

I would say all systems are a GO. I am super curious to see if the upper anti-cyclone can keep moving with it into the GOM.

delta, what do you make of what the last discussion said regarding they don't expect hardly any development due to strong upper level winds it's going to run into?

[wxman57]

I would say all systems are a GO. I am super curious to see if the upper anti-cyclone can keep moving with it into the GOM.

delta, what do you make of what the last discussion said regarding they don't expect hardly any development due to strong upper level winds it's going to run into?

The NHC said the shear would limit development, not that there would be hardly any development. Limit may mean that it won't rapidly explode into an intense hurricane, or that it may have a hard time reaching hurricane strength. But it could still become a moderately-strong TS.

[deltadog03]

I would say that the safe/good call is a weak and sheared system, but (as Aric said) that trof will more than likely deepen and be slower out west so it could keep that upper high over the top of the system.

[hurricanes1234]

Sorry, I am not delta, but in.my opinion, the wind shear that looms ahead could be very true. We saw Ingrid struggle in this same area for the same reason.

[deltadog03]

As wxman said, they didn't say it will be destroyed. The Shear looks like its only about 20-30kt at 200mb. That could be just a nice outflow channel if aligned properly to its west. The long this takes to get to the GOM coast then YES it will be a sheared TS

[Janie2006]

Hmmmmm. Too many variables in play. Delta could very well be correct. I'm not sure I like that particular outcome.

[ozonepete]

Numerous hot towers popping around the COC. A sure sign of strengthening...

[img]http://i189.photobucket.com/albums/z174/philnyc_2007/satrgb2103-10-022345_zpsde020771.jpg[img]

I think what happened this evening the LLC was trying to consolidate large amounts of convection developed and maintained \.. however the circ was not established enough to overcome the well established seabreeze over the land ares . it was close enough to land that the west winds a apparent circ for the first half the mission disappeared and were replaced by the east winds all of a sudden and recons last pass. This of course created a limited but large enough divergence at the surface on the west side of the circ that it collapsed. I would fully assume over night that the land breezes should help aid the surface circ development along with of course DMAX and what should likely be a large convective burst.

A great analysis and forecast there. Also, in the overall picture, this has a very well established COC and upper outflow so that there is only a very short amount of time left before it establishes a firm LLC. There is nothing in the short term to prevent it from getting to a very strong TS. Its future after that is very uncertain due to the shear ahead of it.

[supercane4867]

CDO already?

TXNT25 KNES 030000
TCSNTL

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (97L)

B. 02/2345Z

C. 20.1N

D. 85.3W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. T2.0/2.0/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...COULD NOT DISCERN A CLOSED LOW LEVEL CENTER IN 2304Z SSMIS
IMAGE SO LOW CONFIDENCE IN FIX POSITION. FINAL VIS IMAGES SHOWED AN
IRREGULAR CDO MEASURING 1.25 DEGREES WHICH RESULTS IN A DT OF 2.0. PT
AGREES WHILE MET IS 1.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TURK

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track.

AL, 97, 2013100300, , BEST, 0, 204N, 860W, 35, 1006, DB, 34, NEQ, 70, 50, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

[robbielyn]

We also can't rule out the dry air that could also get entrained into the system when it gets into the gulf. Many times dry air has gotten entrained even into a hurricane to suck the moisture right out of its sails. Might not destroy 97L, but it could make it a weaker system that's for sure. Dry air in the gulf and the atlantic at the mid levels has been more problematic for development this season than even the sheer has. Although this will develop in the short term, the dry air's affect on this system may be a major player in the final outcome. That's if the proverbial wall blocking the dry air doesn't weaken its defenses after a while allowing entrainment. Right now the system is creating its own moist environment. But there's dry air to west and east of the system.

[ozonepete]

We also can't rule out the dry air that could also get entrained into the system when it gets into the gulf. Many times dry air has gotten entrained even into a hurricane to suck the moisture right out of its sails. Might not destroy 97L, but it could make it a weaker system that's for sure. Dry air in the gulf and the atlantic at the mid levels has been more problematic for development this season than even the sheer has. Although this will develop in the short term, the dry air's affect on this system may be a major player in the final outcome. That's if the proverbial wall blocking the dry air doesn't weaken its defenses after a while allowing entrainment. Right now the system is creating its own moist environment. But there's dry air to west and east of the system.

A "spot on" analysis.

[Annie Oakley]

We also can't rule out the dry air that could also get entrained into the system when it gets into the gulf. Many times dry air has gotten entrained even into a hurricane to suck the moisture right out of its sails. Might not destroy 97L, but it could make it a weaker system that's for sure. Dry air in the gulf and the atlantic at the mid levels has been more problematic for development this season than even the sheer has. Although this will develop in the short term, the dry air's affect on this system may be a major player in the final outcome. That's if the proverbial wall blocking the dry air doesn't weaken its defenses after a while allowing entrainment. Right now the system is creating its own moist environment. But there's dry air to west and east of the system.

A "spot on" analysis.

Takes one to know one.......nice.

[SFLcane]

We also can't rule out the dry air that could also get entrained into the system when it gets into the gulf. Many times dry air has gotten entrained even into a hurricane to suck the moisture right out of its sails. Might not destroy 97L, but it could make it a weaker system that's for sure. Dry air in the gulf and the atlantic at the mid levels has been more problematic for development this season than even the sheer has. Although this will develop in the short term, the dry air's affect on this system may be a major player in the final outcome. That's if the proverbial wall blocking the dry air doesn't weaken its defenses after a while allowing entrainment. Right now the system is creating its own moist environment. But there's dry air to west and east of the system.

Some dry air is already being entrained into the system if you asked me.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/97L/imagery/wv-animated.gif

[Annie Oakley]

Describe the quadrant for the readers here.

[deltadog03]

I don't really see dry air affecting this at all (at this point)

[Frank P]

I'm not convinced that this is dry air, it is just going thru its normal routine of pulsing convection, which developing storms do all the time .... my opinion only...

[Aric Dunn]

looking good the dry air


http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/natl/anim/latest72hrs.gif