ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

Aric Dunn · #401 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Wed Oct 02, 2013 5:31 pm

lol recon really having fun

#402 Postby **ozonepete** » Wed Oct 02, 2013 5:31 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
SunnyThoughts wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:plenty of evidence for a closed circ. there have been multiple systems this year with little to no west winds. the has decent wind shift..

So do you think there will be a special advisory? Straight to TS, or depression?

There might just be..

The proximity to land justifies one, especially if it's expected to keep organizing at the current rate...

HurricaneTracker2031 · #403 Postby **HurricaneTracker2031** » Wed Oct 02, 2013 5:32 pm

SunnyThoughts wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:plenty of evidence for a closed circ. there have been multiple systems this year with little to no west winds. the has decent wind shift..

So do you think there will be a special advisory? Straight to TS, or depression?

I mean NHC upgraded worst invests than this so yes IMO

SunnyThoughts · #404 Postby **SunnyThoughts** » Wed Oct 02, 2013 5:33 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:lol recon really having fun

I watched one episode on twc of the hurricane hunters recently...where one of the officers on board ( female) was in charge of pinpointing the location of the center of any storm they flew inside. They all said she was like a bloodhound, could find it no matter how hard it was to pinpoint..maybe she's on board and won't stop till she finds it lol

#405 Postby **chaser1** » Wed Oct 02, 2013 5:34 pm

I think I"ll go with "yes" on a Special Tropical Depression advisory. They're probably wanting to keep it a bit conservative the way systems have fallen apart this year. That, and the fact that there probably will not be another recon out till tomm. sometime, so they won't have any good data outside of bouys and satellite of course. I know if I were making the call, i'd err on the side of caution - just to see if the convection persists a bit longer.

TropicalAnalystwx13 · #406 Postby **TropicalAnalystwx13** » Wed Oct 02, 2013 5:35 pm

We should have Tropical Storm Karen shortly. Either in a special advisory or they might wait until the usual 8pm intermediate time.

#407 Postby **chaser1** » Wed Oct 02, 2013 5:36 pm

Ultimately though, if this plane (now riding on fumes probably) can close off a tight center, and the convective cloud pattern remains status quo for the moment, then its gonna get tagged

#408 Postby **TreasureIslandFLGal** » Wed Oct 02, 2013 5:37 pm

wow, i work for the afternoon and so much changes so quickly. if this stays off teh Yuc, could it go over the loop current and bomb? or conditions aloft further norht just too hostile to worry about any rapid intensification?

Hammy · #409 Postby **Hammy** » Wed Oct 02, 2013 5:38 pm

I don't think they'll upgrade until a VDM comes out, but I will say that it has certainly become more consolidated since earlier, going from a broad mess with apparently multiple vortices to having a somewhat broad but single low pressure area. Estimation based on recon data of the wind flow, a single low seems to be taking hold.

http://s13.postimg.org/dl82bjxvr/Capture.jpg

blp · #410 Postby **blp** » Wed Oct 02, 2013 5:39 pm

Aric, based on what you are seeing, where do you think the LLC is at?

#411 Postby **lester** » Wed Oct 02, 2013 5:40 pm

Hammy wrote:I don't think they'll upgrade until a VDM comes out, but I will say that it has certainly become more consolidated since earlier, going from a broad mess with apparently multiple vortices to having a somewhat broad but single low pressure area. Estimation based on recon data of the wind flow, a single low seems to be taking hold.

http://s13.postimg.org/dl82bjxvr/Capture.jpg

They've upgraded systems with no VDMs before, so it is possible that they'll upgrade soon

Aric Dunn · #412 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Wed Oct 02, 2013 5:41 pm

blp wrote:Aric, based on what you are seeing, where do you think the LLC is at?

about

20.3N 85.8167W lol <----- per northern most more defined Circ.

though probably has migrated more toward the convective burst since then..

#413 Postby **CrazyC83** » Wed Oct 02, 2013 5:42 pm

No sign of a renumber yet, so any Special Advisory would be at 8 pm probably. Would need TS Warnings for part of the Yucatan and Cuba.

#414 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Wed Oct 02, 2013 5:46 pm

Holy Crap!

Hammy · #415 Postby **Hammy** » Wed Oct 02, 2013 5:49 pm

latest recon shows the circulation collapsed so that may have been yet another eddy--SW of where the "circulation" was they're now finding light SE winds. No upgrade anytime in the near future.

blp · #416 Postby **blp** » Wed Oct 02, 2013 5:50 pm

SouthFloridawx wrote:Holy Crap!

http://img819.imageshack.us/img819/2420/acpy.jpg[/img]

Surprise and it is 2013 in case you were wondering :lol:

TropicalAnalystwx13 · #417 Postby **TropicalAnalystwx13** » Wed Oct 02, 2013 5:51 pm

Hammy wrote:latest recon shows the circulation collapsed so that may have been yet another eddy--SW of where the "circulation" was they're now finding light SE winds. No upgrade anytime in the near future.

Huh?

Annie Oakley · #418 Postby **Annie Oakley** » Wed Oct 02, 2013 5:51 pm

SouthFloridawx wrote:Holy Crap!

http://img819.imageshack.us/img819/2420/acpy.jpg

That looks straight-out wicked! I hope it doesn't hurt anyone..........

SunnyThoughts · #419 Postby **SunnyThoughts** » Wed Oct 02, 2013 5:52 pm

blp wrote:
SouthFloridawx wrote:Holy Crap!

http://img819.imageshack.us/img819/2420/acpy.jpg[/img]

Surprise and it is 2013 in case you were wondering

Awesome looking system not to even be classified lol Just shows how looks are deceiving sometimes I guess.

blp · #420 Postby **blp** » Wed Oct 02, 2013 5:53 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
blp wrote:Aric, based on what you are seeing, where do you think the LLC is at?

about

20.3N 85.8167W lol <----- per northern most more defined Circ.

though probably has migrated more toward the convective burst since then..

Thanks

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