ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

#341 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Oct 02, 2013 4:19 pm

Is good to point out that the Recon crew are pulling out the stops to try and pin this down. If not classified on this mission no one can say they didnt give it a good run.

hurricanes1234 · #342 Postby **hurricanes1234** » Wed Oct 02, 2013 4:21 pm

cycloneye wrote:Is good to point out that the Recon crew are pulling out the stops to try and pin this down. If not classified on this mission no one can say they didnt give it a good run.

It would be surprising if they didn't find a TC, because an intense blowup is occurring over the center right now. Also, features have generally improved since 18z.

#343 Postby **chaser1** » Wed Oct 02, 2013 4:26 pm

wxman57 wrote:
BUCMAN48 wrote:How will the new center change the track if any- Please advise and thank you!

If a center formed/reformed near 20N/86W it would make very little difference in the track.

Wxman, however in the event that recon were to close off a newly formed LLC much more co-located with deep convection and perhaps with a 1004mb pressure, wouldn't this potentially have some impact on future motion? At minimum, (and this is entirely assumptive) I would think some healthy deepening might cause a temporary laxing of steering so at min., timing of mid term motion and/or landfall could be impacted. Furthermore, the GFS from this a.m. was really starting to break down the 500mb riding over the Eastern Gulf. Though I then thought this was overdone by the model, should this come to fruition along with a deepening storm, i'd think this would tend to impact the system to move more poleward.

All in all, I'd guess it "could" further imply some risk to the parts of W. Florida from Tampa northward (and perhaps less so to Pensacola area and west from there).

#344 Postby **Stormcenter** » Wed Oct 02, 2013 4:27 pm

I see business has really picked up on the board thanks to 97L.

#345 Postby **wxman57** » Wed Oct 02, 2013 4:28 pm

Latest report from the plane does indicate possible TS wind at surface to the NE. Still doesn't appear to be a clear enough LLC for an upgrade.

floridasun78 · #346 Postby **floridasun78** » Wed Oct 02, 2013 4:28 pm

we getting good rain here in south fl from northern rain band i am miami area

Aric Dunn · #347 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Wed Oct 02, 2013 4:30 pm

I figured that mess to the south was just a vort... also finally a burst of convection near the circ they have found to the north.. I smell a special advisory..

#348 Postby **chaser1** » Wed Oct 02, 2013 4:31 pm

floridasun78 wrote:we getting good rain here in south fl from northern rain band i am miami area

Yep 'Sun, am here too, in the Kendall area

#349 Postby **ozonepete** » Wed Oct 02, 2013 4:31 pm

Very impressive change in the circulation just in the last 6 hours. This has developed very good symmetry on satellite and along with the great upper outflow and being over bathtub water it can quite possibly blow up even with DMIN occurring.

#350 Postby **wxman57** » Wed Oct 02, 2013 4:32 pm

Plane is heading SW for one more pass to try and locate an LLC. FL wind to 42 kts found.

#351 Postby **Dave** » Wed Oct 02, 2013 4:33 pm

43 flt; 57 sfmr...no flags on either. (have a 59 but with a flag on it)

#352 Postby **Stormcenter** » Wed Oct 02, 2013 4:33 pm

I use the old duck saying and say this is a duck (TD or TS) already. IMO

#353 Postby **CrazyC83** » Wed Oct 02, 2013 4:35 pm

That data supports an intensity of around 45 kt...assuming they declare the LLC closed.

#354 Postby **chaser1** » Wed Oct 02, 2013 4:36 pm

42kt. ? Wow.... Almost would have to take it straight to T.S. if a center were able to be closed off there?!! By the way, note the sinking air on the systems' SE quad.; not abnormal, but almost looks as if the dryer air is encroaching the eastern side's circulation a bit

Aric Dunn · #355 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Wed Oct 02, 2013 4:37 pm

id put money on the vort/ center they just passed through being pulled to that convective burst ..already on the edge of it.

Annie Oakley · #356 Postby **Annie Oakley** » Wed Oct 02, 2013 4:37 pm

cycloneye wrote:Is good to point out that the Recon crew are pulling out the stops to try and pin this down. If not classified on this mission no one can say they didnt give it a good run.

Hear Hear for the Hurricane Hunters!

#357 Postby **ozonepete** » Wed Oct 02, 2013 4:38 pm

Look at the change in symmetry from 9:30Am this morning to 4:30PM this afternoon. The western side was completely cut off/ flattened. Now it is a truly circular system and is really large. This is the best looking developing TC I have seen all season. Can't think of one that looked better.

9:30AM

4:30PM:

Aric Dunn · #358 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Wed Oct 02, 2013 4:39 pm

so far through the day the upper high and good outflow have been moving in tandum..

pgoss11 · #359 Postby **pgoss11** » Wed Oct 02, 2013 4:40 pm

It looks like something we have all been waiting for all season.. I hope the Coc is closed off.

pgoss11 · #360 Postby **pgoss11** » Wed Oct 02, 2013 4:41 pm

It looks like something we have all been waiting for all season.. I hope the Coc is closed off.

ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

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