ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

[GCANE]

Dry slot over Yucatan starting to break up.

[tropicwatch]

The lowest pressures are near 19.59n and 85.1W not too far from the large flair up of showers.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Wow, it has a beautiful anticyclone aloft...at least for the time being.

[wxman57]

I'm not seeing anything to justify an upgrade at this time. LLC is way too broad and ill-defined. Probably by tomorrow morning it will be a TD/TS. Western FL panhandle still looks like the prime target. I'd say 40-45 kts at landfall (45-50 mph). Will likely be weakening as it moves into the coast Saturday afternoon/evening.

[hurricanes1234]

1. Is this going to make landfall over the Yucatan Peninsula?
2. Do you think we'll have a TS by tonight or earlier?
3. How is the dry air 'magically' breaking up as the system approaches, even though there are no rainbands there?

Thanks!

[hurricanes1234]

I'm not seeing anything to justify an upgrade at this time. LLC is way too broad and ill-defined. Probably by tomorrow morning it will be a TD/TS. Western FL panhandle still looks like the prime target. I'd say 40-45 kts at landfall (45-50 mph). Will likely be weakening as it moves into the coast Saturday afternoon/evening.

Wow, how did you answer 2 of my questions before I even posted them?

[wxman57]

Wow, how did you answer 2 of my questions before I even posted them?

I'm psycho, I mean psychic. Even though the center may clip the NE Yucatan, heaviest squalls & rain should pass east of the Yucatan tonight/tomorrow morning.

[Stormcenter]

97L looks way better than Jerry so based on that alone I would upgrade it. IMO

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

1006.8 millibars from the latest pass. They were investigating the dying, remnant low-level center to the SE while a new one was getting better organized near 86.0W 20.2N. This may be a tropical cyclone after all...waiting for them to close it off.

[jhpigott]

Nice blow up of convection near the broad center 85W/20N (right at DMIN). Maybe help consolidate the circulation?


http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[ozonepete]

1. Is this going to make landfall over the Yucatan Peninsula?
2. Do you think we'll have a TS by tonight or earlier?
3. How is the dry air 'magically' breaking up as the system approaches, even though there are no rainbands there?

Thanks!

For #3 there, dry air usually doesn't last that long over such a high theta-e (in grossly simple terms high surface moisture and warmth content) body of water. Also the mid-level winds were bringing in dry air from the north but those winds are turning easterly and eventually southerly which is bringing in more moist tropical air aloft. And the counterclockwise low and mid level circulation around this disturbance is starting to do two things: pushes drier air away to the west, but also feeds some of its own higher Relative Humidity air westward which helps moisten up the dry air. It's a delicate balance - sometimes the TC starts ingesting the dry air more than it can push it away. That's often been a problem this season. The advantage for this one in maintaining is that it's a large system and seems to be devbeloping a nice circulation envelope which can wall out dry air.

[ronjon]

Yeah JH, the blow up of convection near 20N-85W looks like the COC developing now!

[Stormcenter]

I agree.

1006.8 millibars from the latest pass. They were investigating the dying, remnant low-level center to the SE while a new one was getting better organized near 86.0W 20.2N. This may be a tropical cyclone after all...waiting for them to close it off.

[wxman57]

97L looks way better than Jerry so based on that alone I would upgrade it. IMO

Looks, on satellite, can be deceiving. It's the well-defined surface circulation that counts. Currently, 97L lacks a well-defined LLC. Perhaps Jerry should be downgraded?

[BUCMAN48]

How will the new center change the track if any- Please advise and thank you!

[wxman57]

How will the new center change the track if any- Please advise and thank you!

If a center formed/reformed near 20N/86W it would make very little difference in the track.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, center is apparently reforming a bit northeast. I think we may see this get named late tonight of by early tomorrow morning. The system looks rather good right now.

[ronjon]

RECON flying toward 20N-85W now - let's see what they find.

[tropicwatch]

RECON flying toward 20N-85W now - let's see what they find.

[hurricanes1234]

1. Is this going to make landfall over the Yucatan Peninsula?
2. Do you think we'll have a TS by tonight or earlier?
3. How is the dry air 'magically' breaking up as the system approaches, even though there are no rainbands there?

Thanks!

For #3 there, dry air usually doesn't last that long over such a high theta-e (in grossly simple terms high surface moisture and warmth content) body of water. Also the mid-level winds were bringing in dry air from the north but those winds are turning easterly and eventually southerly which is bringing in more moist tropical air aloft. And the counterclockwise low and mid level circulation around this disturbance is starting to do two things: pushes drier air away to the west, but also feeds some of its own higher Relative Humidity air westward which helps moisten up the dry air. It's a delicate balance - sometimes the TC starts ingesting the dry air more than it can push it away. That's often been a problem this season. The advantage for this one in maintaining is that it's a large system and seems to be devbeloping a nice circulation envelope which can wall out dry air.

Thanks for the answer. It is much appreciated.