ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

[Andrew92]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

It was me who posted about a dream about a storm named Karen. This is not the first time I have had a dream about a certain storm with a name, and see that scenario come into reality nearly exactly according to the dream. The same thing happened last year with two other storms I had a dream about, and the reality played almost perfectly according to the dream. It happened with another storms several years back too. I just cannot explain how this happens when it does! However, I seem to recall my dream had Karen as a hurricane, which seems like a stretch now given what the upper atmosphere should look like as it heads to the north.

We'll see what happens I guess. The only thing I can figure is I think this is definitely heading towards the US, probably as a sheared system. Then again, in another post or two I know I made, I suggested the best chance of a US hurricane was in October on a track like the one this system might be taking. Just can't see this one being a hurricane, but my head (not my gut) could be wrong.

-Andrew92

[Hammy]

Whatever rotation is there looks at least better defined than on the first pass, and it still appears to be organizing on satellite. Still an hour left before any advisory would be issued, so who knows what could happen in that time.

[hurricanes1234]

Then you should post your tropical cyclone dreams anytime you have them! We're interested to hear about it.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

It was me who posted about a dream about a storm named Karen. This is not the first time I have had a dream about a certain storm with a name, and see that scenario come into reality nearly exactly according to the dream. The same thing happened last year with two other storms I had a dream about, and the reality played almost perfectly according to the dream. It happened with another storms several years back too. I just cannot explain how this happens when it does! However, I seem to recall my dream had Karen as a hurricane, which seems like a stretch now given what the upper atmosphere should look like as it heads to the north.

We'll see what happens I guess. The only thing I can figure is I think this is definitely heading towards the US, probably as a sheared system. Then again, in another post or two I know I made, I suggested the best chance of a US hurricane was in October on a track like the one this system might be taking. Just can't see this one being a hurricane, but my head (not my gut) could be wrong.

-Andrew92

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track updated the winds up to 35kts.

AL 97 2013100218 BEST 0 191N 858W 35 1007 DB

[Stormcenter]

TD now?

18z Best Track updated the winds up to 35kts.

AL 97 2013100218 BEST 0 191N 858W 35 1007 DB

[ScottNAtlanta]

There was someone a couple of "invests" ago that said the have a dream/premonition about the "K" storm. I wish I could remember who it was, but if this deepens significantly in the YC, I'd like to know what he thinks about a couple of investments...lol, cause he had it just about where its going to be...and this was weeks ago. So, if you are out there...speak up! I'm still looking for the post

I remember the post as well, I believe it was in the "thoughts on season" thread.

I was thinking model discussion..but will look there as well.

[hurricanes1234]

TD now?

18z Best Track updated the winds up to 35kts.

AL 97 2013100218 BEST 0 191N 858W 35 1007 DB

Maybe even a TS since 35 knots is a minimal TS.

['CaneFreak]

Nope. Still numbered 97L.

TD now?

18z Best Track updated the winds up to 35kts.

AL 972013100218 BEST 0 191N 858W 35 1007 DB

[Aric Dunn]

Nope. Still numbered 97L.

TD now?

18z Best Track updated the winds up to 35kts.

AL 972013100218 BEST 0 191N 858W 35 1007 DB

Yeah no renumber.. they are finding multiple vorts.. I bet it develops a better defined llc to the NE near the convection overnight.

[ScottNAtlanta]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

It was me who posted about a dream about a storm named Karen. This is not the first time I have had a dream about a certain storm with a name, and see that scenario come into reality nearly exactly according to the dream. The same thing happened last year with two other storms I had a dream about, and the reality played almost perfectly according to the dream. It happened with another storms several years back too. I just cannot explain how this happens when it does! However, I seem to recall my dream had Karen as a hurricane, which seems like a stretch now given what the upper atmosphere should look like as it heads to the north.

We'll see what happens I guess. The only thing I can figure is I think this is definitely heading towards the US, probably as a sheared system. Then again, in another post or two I know I made, I suggested the best chance of a US hurricane was in October on a track like the one this system might be taking. Just can't see this one being a hurricane, but my head (not my gut) could be wrong.

-Andrew92

Just saw this...guess I dont need to look...just refresh this page more often

[cycloneye]

TD now?

18z Best Track updated the winds up to 35kts.

AL 97 2013100218 BEST 0 191N 858W 35 1007 DB

Still no renumber to TD 12 or TS Karen. Depends on what Recon finds during the rest of mission.

[lester]

TD now?

18z Best Track updated the winds up to 35kts.

AL 97 2013100218 BEST 0 191N 858W 35 1007 DB

No, still an invest, if they upgraded it would be Tropical Storm Karen (which in my opinion I don't see happening today)

[Hammy]

Out of curiosity, will the next flight be during DMAX?

[hurricanes1234]

No, I meant if it were renumbered at 5PM, it would likely jump straight to a TS, since it has the wind speed of a low-end tropical storm.
But as of now, it's still an invest, just with TS-force winds.

['CaneFreak]

Agreed. This is usually the case and makes the most sense given the situation.

Yeah no renumber.. they are finding multiple vorts.. I bet it develops a better defined llc to the NE near the convection overnight.

[cycloneye]

Out of curiosity, will the next flight be during DMAX?

Yes.

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 03/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0212A CYCLONE
C. 03/0300Z
D. 21N 86W
E. 0530-1000Z
E. SFC TO 10,000FT

[Alyono]

Out of curiosity, will the next flight be during DMAX?

Yes.

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 03/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0212A CYCLONE
C. 03/0300Z
D. 21N 86W
E. 0530-1000Z
E. SFC TO 10,000FT

They hardly ever fly invests at night. Next flight would be tomorrow afternoon if no upgrade

[BUCMAN48]

Aric,

If there is a reformation of the LLC to the NE, how drastically if any would that change the
track? Thank you- Go Rays!

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Far too broad for classification at this time. However, the center has been in the process of relocating to the northeast over the past few hours and the satellite appearance is steadily improving. We should have an intensifying tropical storm by this time tomorrow.

[tropicwatch]

Pressures seem to be falling pretty nicely looking at the observations coming out of the HH's.