ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

[wxman57]

That upper-level high is displaced east of the LLC, though. That's causing shear over the disturbance.

[GCANE]

TRMM caught some small hot towers between Cuba and the Isle of Youth

[GCANE]

That upper-level high is displaced east of the LLC, though. That's causing shear over the disturbance.

Looks like about 10 knots UL winds from the east over the est LLC.

Not all that bad.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[alienstorm]

This is where I have it based on initial recon information

[xironman]

They keep finding lower pressures to the south, multiple weak vortexes?

[CrazyC83]

Is that an eddy vortex or an LLC though?

[chaser1]

It better pop some convection over or near the center if there's any chance of it building its own anticyclone (or extending the present upper high westward). Short of that, southerly shear will only slowly increase.

So, was the last 6 hours basically the "highlight real", or are we simply close to some significant bursting convection. Overall, tops have really warmed during the last few hours; heck, only cooling tops are in a small linear band nearly 100 miles removed to its east

[robbielyn]

nexrad said look at the direction of the feeder bands they will tell you the direction of the storm. going to cross the yucatan.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track.

AL, 97, 2013100218, , BEST, 0, 191N, 858W, 30, 1007, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

[tolakram]

Live visible loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=20&lon=-85&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=10

[Dave]

Would someone take over the Hdobs? I can do graphics for you after 3:30 PM or so.

[tolakram]

From the recon thread, this pic shows the rather sloppy low level circulation.

[cycloneye]

From the recon thread, this pic shows the rather sloppy low level circulation.

http://www.fallsky.com/97/5.jpg

Broad.

[GCANE]

Pretty big mid-level dry slot over Yucatan.

Convection may slowly push this out of the way.

Looking at 3hr frames on 200mb, looks like the PV anomaly is pushing away from 97L to the NW opening the door for moisture to enter the mid-troposphere over the Yucatan.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=vor1&zoom=&time=

[Blown Away]

Looking good!! Looks like NNW now...

[Aric Dunn]

PRetty sure thats vort they are flying through ... this pass is south of the previous which means its rotating around a mean center.

[SunnyThoughts]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-vis.html Sure has a nice spin developing.

[ScottNAtlanta]

There was someone a couple of "invests" ago that said the have a dream/premonition about the "K" storm. I wish I could remember who it was, but if this deepens significantly in the YC, I'd like to know what he thinks about a couple of investments...lol, cause he had it just about where its going to be...and this was weeks ago. So, if you are out there...speak up! I'm still looking for the post

[Hammy]

There was someone a couple of "invests" ago that said the have a dream/premonition about the "K" storm. I wish I could remember who it was, but if this deepens significantly in the YC, I'd like to know what he thinks about a couple of investments...lol, cause he had it just about where its going to be...and this was weeks ago. So, if you are out there...speak up! I'm still looking for the post

I remember the post as well, I believe it was in the "thoughts on season" thread.

[adam0983]

Does anyone think that south florida could be affect be Invest 97L?