ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

[Dean4Storms]

It still appears that the circulation is too broad and weak for an upgrade this afternoon. Probably tomorrow, though.

I don't know, seeing a pretty tight rotation on high resolution imagery near 20.2N 84.5W through a break in the higher clouds.

[CrazyC83]

That "Karen" mention is interesting...error or is there something up?

[MGC]

97L has really become better organized the past 12 hours. Close to a TD. Would not be surprised if the NHC goes ahead and upgrades, just to get the word out since this will be a US threat in a few days. Still thinking the dry air will hold it back.....MGC

The above is the opinion of MGC and not a official forecast.

[robbielyn]

govt shut down probably error.

[Hammy]

govt shut down probably error.

That wouldn't have anything to do with it as the link is from the University of Miami.

That "Karen" mention is interesting...error or is there something up?

I noticed the same when Fernand was forming as well, and I believe it was upgraded a few hours later. Either the one posting these is really good at making calls, or knows something before we do.

[ROCK]

Well FSU does have that super computer....maybe they know more than they are telling...

[Stormcenter]

Wow sure does look impressive, I'll vote it's a TD or more already or at least by tonight. IMO


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-vis.html

[Dean4Storms]

Gusts now to 35kts and pressure dropping faster.......


http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056

[wxman57]

It still appears that the circulation is too broad and weak for an upgrade this afternoon. Probably tomorrow, though.

I don't know, seeing a pretty tight rotation on high resolution imagery near 20.2N 84.5W through a break in the higher clouds.

Can't be any LLC there, as the buoy just southwest of there (at 19.8N/84.9W) has SE winds of 25 kts. Any surface circulation is west of 85W. Possibly around 20N/85.5W - west of all convection.

[tropicwatch]

Wow the circulation became clear this afternoon. Hold on to your hats boys and girls

[supercane4867]

TCFA issued

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.1N 85.3W TO 21.7N 87.6W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
A NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT THIS TIME. SATELLITE IMAGERY
AT 021700Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 18.1N 85.3W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING INTENSIFICATION OF A
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY LOCATED IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A WEAK
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EVIDENT. OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS DEEP
CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT OVER THE AREA. WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES OF 82 TO 85 DEGREES ALONG WITH A DEEP THERMAL LAYER WILL
AID IN FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, MID TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR TO
THE NORTHWEST ALONG WITH HIGH WIND SHEAR VALUES OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS
WILL LIKELY HINDER ANY STRONG DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO A WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 031800Z.//

[Sanibel]

This kind of snapping together over the west Caribbean should translate into formation. 35KTS is showtime in my book.

[Hammy]

Possibly around 20N/85.5W - west of all convection.

It looks like it's starting to curl up around that point, and it seems to be closed, at least at cloud level, given the westerly inflow extending down to Honduras. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/97L/flash-rgb-long.html

[alienstorm]

Looks to be east of Cozumel and south of Pinar Del Rio

[Dean4Storms]

It still appears that the circulation is too broad and weak for an upgrade this afternoon. Probably tomorrow, though.

I don't know, seeing a pretty tight rotation on high resolution imagery near 20.2N 84.5W through a break in the higher clouds.

Can't be any LLC there, as the buoy just southwest of there (at 19.8N/84.9W) has SE winds of 25 kts. Any surface circulation is west of 85W. Possibly around 20N/85.5W - west of all convection.

Noticed that, might be the MLC I'm seeing and this is tilted toward the NE if an LLC does exist.

[chaser1]

It still appears that the circulation is too broad and weak for an upgrade this afternoon. Probably tomorrow, though.

I don't know, seeing a pretty tight rotation on high resolution imagery near 20.2N 84.5W through a break in the higher clouds.

Can't be any LLC there, as the buoy just southwest of there (at 19.8N/84.9W) has SE winds of 25 kts. Any surface circulation is west of 85W. Possibly around 20N/85.5W - west of all convection.

Really? I'd had though that a LLC would have been trying to form southeast of that point; Not that I think any true surface COC has yet developed, but perhaps working towards it.

[wxman57]

Plane is flying past 19.5N/85.5W and not finding any evidence of an LLC. Certainly, nothing east of there according to obs. Possibly a very broad and weak surface circulation. Will probably find 30-35 kt winds in the convection to the east, but it needs a better-defined LLC for an upgrade.

[blp]

TCFA issued
[img]https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/3f/Tcfa.gif[/]
.//

TCFA is too far South. I see it around 19.5 or 20N. If you draw the line from where I have think it is it will certainly shoot the gap.

[wxman57]

Plane found a weak LLC near 19N/85.7W. Winds 5 kts or less from the west. Very broad and weak LLC.

[GCANE]

Its not often when you see an UL outflow as good as this.