ATL: KAREN - Models

[psyclone]

That 12z GFS run has my full attention. Looks like a Panama City landfall.

considering virtually all of the bad weather will likely be east of the center, a panama city landfall would likely yield sun and a fresh north breeze in your neck of the woods. this may be a situation where you'll get more action 125 miles east of the center than folks 25 miles west... of course that assumes we get a legit storm and that on its own is a tall order in 2013.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Dean4Storms]

That 12z GFS run has my full attention. Looks like a Panama City landfall.

considering virtually all of the bad weather will likely be east of the center, a panama city landfall would likely yield sun and a fresh north breeze in your neck of the woods. this may be a situation where you'll get more action 125 miles east of the center than folks 25 miles west... of course that assumes we get a legit storm and that on its own is a tall order in 2013.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Could be although if as the 12z GFS indicated that the anti-cyclone aloft sticks with it then it might have some bad weather on the western periphery as well, at least out to 100 miles give or take.

[ROCK]

12Z CMC- SW LA still
12Z NAVGEM- LA then moves it east along the coast as the front catches it

would go over the LC if it does go more east to start with...

[N2Storms]

[quote="Dean4Storms"][quote="psyclone"][quote="Dean4Storms"]That 12z GFS run has my full attention. Looks like a Panama City landfall.[/quote]
considering virtually all of the bad weather will likely be east of the center, a panama city landfall would likely yield sun and a fresh north breeze in your neck of the woods. this may be a situation where you'll get more action 125 miles east of the center than folks 25 miles west... of course that assumes we get a legit storm and that on its own is a tall order in 2013.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.[/quote]

Could be although if as the 12z GFS indicated that the anti-cyclone aloft sticks with it then it might have some bad weather on the western periphery as well, at least out to 100 miles give or take.[/quote]


Not a forecast but I still think whatever it ends up being will come ashore around the AL/FL line...

[deltadog03]

EURO running now

[tolakram]

At 24H it wants to run it right over the YP, showing a low just north / NW of the tip.

['CaneFreak]

12Z GFS off its rocker. Not even the normally over aggressive CMC is showing that kind of solution.

[Aric Dunn]

remember all watch out for all the models that initialize it to far south its a good 50 ++ miles north of the best track..

[ROCK]

48hr not much to look at on the EURO...

[Dean4Storms]

ECM loses the closed low at 48hrs NW of YT tip. Think the ECM is out to lunch on this.

[deltadog03]

IMO euro looks to weak with and a bit slow. GFS likely to strong

[Dean4Storms]

12Z GFS off its rocker. Not even the normally over aggressive CMC is showing that kind of solution.

I would agree if it wasn't showing the organization now that is occurring. GFS might be right on this!

[MGC]

WWL TV out of New Orleans Precision Cast model has the surface vortex moving over New Orleans Saturday morning. That was on the noon weather.......MGC

[stormlover2013]

nothing has developed yet, EURO is the best so I am going with the best

[chaser1]

48hr not much to look at on the EURO...

Yeah Rock, I think I'm definately jumping off my "GFS ship" and swimming on over to the NAVGEM and EURO (got a towel

['CaneFreak]

Don't think many models will do too well with this one until it finally actually develops.

ECM loses the closed low at 48hrs NW of YT tip. Think the ECM is out to lunch on this.

[BigB0882]

nothing has developed yet, EURO is the best so I am going with the best

At such an early stage (before formation), I am not sure going with any one model is a wise choice. Best to take a blend and then wait for development. IMO.

[supercane4867]

May very well enter Georgia as a decent TS

[ROCK]

well the EURO likes LA....at 72hrs... not much to it though..maybe hostile conditions in the GOM...

[Dean4Storms]

One thing for certain, not seen the GFDL and HWRF as consistent with nearly identical runs after runs until this Storm this year!